Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Next problem?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Next problem?

    Lordosis style poll: What is the most likely next issue /
    problem? I have an IPS that addresses everything i can imagine and i wont panic sell etc. but curious what the smart folks here think.
    65
    prolonged bear market. > 10% drop lasting longer than 6 mo.
    21.54%
    14
    Housing collapse similar to 2007-2008
    6.15%
    4
    Out of control inflation (>3%)
    26.15%
    17
    A combo of the above (more than 1)
    26.15%
    17
    Something out of the blue (like covid)
    15.38%
    10
    Other
    9.23%
    6

  • #2
    I forget which podcast I heard this on, maybe Ben Felix’s rational reminder. The next big thing to upend the world and the economy are always completely out of left field and impossible to foresee.

    It will start to crystallize just before it all hits the fan, which is why there’s always a market for doomsday predictions of the next big thing. People can talk themselves in circles rationalizing what is going to tip us over, but history says it’s something we aren’t talking about or thinking about right now.

    So, I guess my answer is, who knows?

    Comment


    • #3
      My answer was a combo of the above but I think inflation kicks everything off. The Feds have been making some weird comments about inflation. I think they know what's coming but are trying to prolong it as long as possible.

      Comment


      • #4
        Anyone with half a brain ( I am not sure the fed reserve has that) knows that the inflation is upon us. Not that it will happen, but it is happening right now. If you shop for anything - groceries, cars, house, rent, anything - the prices have risen substantially.

        And with fed determined to keep the interest rates low and Congress pumping more and more stimulus money, it will only get worse. And then that will set off bear market and housing slide. Better to act now rather than when it is bad. But than, just like healthcare, we treat disease and not wellness.

        Comment


        • #5
          I voted for what I wished for, a prolonged bear market. Not even close to retirement and still banking a lot into retirement accounts, so I need those equities to go on sale

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Kamban View Post
            Anyone with half a brain ( I am not sure the fed reserve has that) knows that the inflation is upon us. Not that it will happen, but it is happening right now. If you shop for anything - groceries, cars, house, rent, anything - the prices have risen substantially.

            And with fed determined to keep the interest rates low and Congress pumping more and more stimulus money, it will only get worse. And then that will set off bear market and housing slide. Better to act now rather than when it is bad. But than, just like healthcare, we treat disease and not wellness.
            yeah, I have at least half a brain and there's no guarantee that inflation is upon us. The fed took rates to all-time lows and kept them there in 2008-2009 and congress pumped over $800b into the economy then. We didn't have inflation at a greater rate than average after that all happened. I know you'll say that the current stimulus is way bigger than $800b and that's correct, but back in 2008-2009 the $800b stimulus was considered huge and Bush had put a different stimulus bill through the congress prior to that too and there still wasn't inflation. I'm not saying inflation won't happen, but I'm also saying no one has a crystal ball and even with half a brain they don't know that inflation is going to be a long-term issue

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by JBME View Post

              yeah, I have at least half a brain and there's no guarantee that inflation is upon us. The fed took rates to all-time lows and kept them there in 2008-2009 and congress pumped over $800b into the economy then. We didn't have inflation at a greater rate than average after that all happened. I know you'll say that the current stimulus is way bigger than $800b and that's correct, but back in 2008-2009 the $800b stimulus was considered huge and Bush had put a different stimulus bill through the congress prior to that too and there still wasn't inflation. I'm not saying inflation won't happen, but I'm also saying no one has a crystal ball and even with half a brain they don't know that inflation is going to be a long-term issue
              Maybe Warren Buffet has dementia too, like me.

              We are seeing very substantial inflation,” Warren Buffett said at the conglomerate’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday. “We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

              Comment


              • #8
                I'm just saying let's see where we're at in a year. Like I said, a lot of people had these inflationary fears back in 2008-2009 and so a lot of people were wrong. They could be wrong again. They also could be right.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by TheDangerZone View Post
                  I forget which podcast I heard this on, maybe Ben Felix’s rational reminder. The next big thing to upend the world and the economy are always completely out of left field and impossible to foresee.

                  It will start to crystallize just before it all hits the fan, which is why there’s always a market for doomsday predictions of the next big thing. People can talk themselves in circles rationalizing what is going to tip us over, but history says it’s something we aren’t talking about or thinking about right now.

                  So, I guess my answer is, who knows?
                  agree for the most part

                  if i had to put money down i'd say one of 3 things:

                  1. some kind of supply crunch like where the global chains of manganese or something lead to a collapse in ability to build chips or process something else that has an incredible downstream effect

                  2. hot spot war (India-Pak, ME) that ends up disrupting some kind of logistics

                  3. ramp up of infrastructure cyber-attacks

                  i am not a doomsdayer, if anything i think one of the lingering stories of covid is the incredible resilience of things like supply chains, urban centers, etc. the loss of life from covid has been horrible obviously but holy crap we went from global shutdown to 95+% effective vax in 13 months.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by JBME View Post

                    yeah, I have at least half a brain and there's no guarantee that inflation is upon us.
                    Have you made any purchases or looked at prices recently? Granted, it's multifactorial but it's already here. The Fed went from saying we won't get inflation to it will only be 'transitory'. I'd bet they're shaking in their boots behind closed doors because there's nothing they can do except try to lie to the public and hope for a miracle.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by JBME View Post
                      I voted for what I wished for, a prolonged bear market. Not even close to retirement and still banking a lot into retirement accounts, so I need those equities to go on sale
                      I was going to say the exact same thing. I think the most likely next event is a market downturn but that would not be a problem for me.

                      I have no idea about inflation. But I would not mind a rise in interest rates.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I don't know should be an option. Covid had some terrible impacts, but the stock market was not one of them.
                        From an economic standpoint, Covid actually did not result in any of the options.
                        Face it, humans are causing every one of the factors in your poll.
                        Thus, Other. Someone someplace will screw things up. Man made problems.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                          Have you made any purchases or looked at prices recently? Granted, it's multifactorial but it's already here. The Fed went from saying we won't get inflation to it will only be 'transitory'. I'd bet they're shaking in their boots behind closed doors because there's nothing they can do except try to lie to the public and hope for a miracle.
                          I have made purchases. Bought gas recently. the speculation about what the fed is doing behind closed doors is just that, speculation. no different than guessing anything in the future

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

                            I was going to say the exact same thing. I think the most likely next event is a market downturn but that would not be a problem for me.

                            I have no idea about inflation. But I would not mind a rise in interest rates.
                            I too would like better than .5% on my ally savings account. And I'd like interest rates to rise just to be selfish and pat myself on the back that I "timed the market" right and refinanced to get this great low rate that now I can no longer (and never will) get and how "smart" I was to do it at the right time.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Its a weird combo of things causing inflation. Much of which is simply getting benchmarked to apr, may, and jun of last year (for upcoming prints as well). Segments are also all off. Of course this will ease into second half of year and housing will come up against the massive covid jump and look weaker.

                              Then next year everything will be against this years high prints, meaning you'd need insane numbers to even make a dent, that is exceedingly unlikely. This isnt the first hot print even in the last 10 years, and while overall conditions are different, they never held up.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X