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2020 ends not with a bang....but not with a wimper.

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  • StateOfMyHead
    replied
    Originally posted by Larry Ragman View Post
    Of course not. It’s a distorted economy. It seems obvious a market downturn is coming. Unfortunately none of know when. I’ve been wondering how to take advantage. If I were younger I’d try hard to ignore the asset price run up until it subsides, but I’m close enough to retirement to worry. Best I’ve come up with: 1) avoid new real estate purchases while prices are inflated; 2) rebalance to retirement AA in tax deferred to avoid SORR; 3) enjoy the ride. If/when stocks crash I’ll rebalance bonds to equities in tax deferred, and TLH in taxable. If stock prices keep going up, well I guess I’ll be a little less wealthy. Definitely worth it to preserve gains to date. As for real estate, if I could sell the rental properties I would, but not really an option right now. Too bad because the real estate market is definitely frothy.
    You make excellent points particularly the implications for those of us within 10 years of retirement. I have been agonizing over 2 rental property leases that I recently renewed but probably should have sold. They are solid investments and provide diversification but I likely overvalued the benefits of good tenants and positive cash flow as compared to the inflated prices properties are commanding now.

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  • Larry Ragman
    replied
    Originally posted by StateOfMyHead View Post

    None of this makes any sense to me. Except of course the lack of value for my dollar which I fully anticipated and am feeling.
    Of course not. It’s a distorted economy. It seems obvious a market downturn is coming. Unfortunately none of know when. I’ve been wondering how to take advantage. If I were younger I’d try hard to ignore the asset price run up until it subsides, but I’m close enough to retirement to worry. Best I’ve come up with: 1) avoid new real estate purchases while prices are inflated; 2) rebalance to retirement AA in tax deferred to avoid SORR; 3) enjoy the ride. If/when stocks crash I’ll rebalance bonds to equities in tax deferred, and TLH in taxable. If stock prices keep going up, well I guess I’ll be a little less wealthy. Definitely worth it to preserve gains to date. As for real estate, if I could sell the rental properties I would, but not really an option right now. Too bad because the real estate market is definitely frothy.

    Leave a comment:


  • StateOfMyHead
    replied
    Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post
    Stocks new highs every week
    Crypto, GME, SPACs, NTFs, to the moon
    bonds still near all time highs
    Residential real estate up 10-15% YOY
    Car wash had been $6-7 for 15 years, all of a sudden it’s $9
    Airport parking which over 18 years went from $5-9 is suddenly $13

    The only thing going down is the value of my dollars.
    None of this makes any sense to me. Except of course the lack of value for my dollar which I fully anticipated and am feeling.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    I wonder what Max Power 's thoughts are on this now. Always interesting to read through previous threads to gauge the sentiment at the time.

    Just for Ss & Gs I went through and mapped out previous funds that a certain poster mentioned that he felt would outperform this year. I don't have any fancy software so just used whatever I could Google. The most I could enter at a time was 5 funds and it would just add in the S&P 500 for comparison (although they use an orange line for the S&P 500 fund and a fund I would enter). I couldn't find a BCOFX fund so just used the BFOCX just assuming it was a typo.

    Click image for larger version Name:	Fund Comparison 1.png Views:	0 Size:	3.8 KB ID:	277741

    Click image for larger version Name:	Fund Comparison 2.png Views:	0 Size:	3.7 KB ID:	277742

    In each of these, the S&P 500 is the orange line just above the 11.0K mark. 2 funds have outperformed, 1 fund has essentially equal performance, and 7 have underperformed. Granted, this is just a comparison to the S&P 500 but interesting nonetheless at the halfway point. This post could go in the 'everything that glitters' thread.

    Disclosure: I know they had talked about comparing it to a portfolio that was 2/3 US funds and 1/3 international funds and I'm not sure which website I could use to do that but that results would not change much from the above.
    7 funds, thats just too much.

    I had four funds for most of this year and that seemed like a lot.

    Leave a comment:


  • CordMcNally
    replied
    Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...ck-ma-inc/amp/

    End of an era - Baba not so bullish anymore.
    I wonder what Max Power 's thoughts are on this now. Always interesting to read through previous threads to gauge the sentiment at the time.

    Just for Ss & Gs I went through and mapped out previous funds that a certain poster mentioned that he felt would outperform this year. I don't have any fancy software so just used whatever I could Google. The most I could enter at a time was 5 funds and it would just add in the S&P 500 for comparison (although they use an orange line for the S&P 500 fund and a fund I would enter). I couldn't find a BCOFX fund so just used the BFOCX just assuming it was a typo.

    Click image for larger version  Name:	Fund Comparison 1.png Views:	0 Size:	3.8 KB ID:	277741

    Click image for larger version  Name:	Fund Comparison 2.png Views:	0 Size:	3.7 KB ID:	277742

    In each of these, the S&P 500 is the orange line just above the 11.0K mark. 2 funds have outperformed, 1 fund has essentially equal performance, and 7 have underperformed. Granted, this is just a comparison to the S&P 500 but interesting nonetheless at the halfway point. This post could go in the 'everything that glitters' thread.

    Disclosure: I know they had talked about comparing it to a portfolio that was 2/3 US funds and 1/3 international funds and I'm not sure which website I could use to do that but that results would not change much from the above.
    Last edited by CordMcNally; 06-09-2021, 08:50 AM.

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  • xraygoggles
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    The Chinese government is always such a wild card.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...ck-ma-inc/amp/

    End of an era - Baba not so bullish anymore.

    Leave a comment:


  • FIREshrink
    replied
    Stocks new highs every week
    Crypto, GME, SPACs, NTFs, to the moon
    bonds still near all time highs
    Residential real estate up 10-15% YOY
    Car wash had been $6-7 for 15 years, all of a sudden it’s $9
    Airport parking which over 18 years went from $5-9 is suddenly $13

    The only thing going down is the value of my dollars.

    Leave a comment:


  • CordMcNally
    replied
    Originally posted by Max Power View Post
    A company with a P/E that is one third Amazon and owns a bigger market share of online commerce? Yeah, might go up.
    The Chinese government is always such a wild card.

    Leave a comment:


  • Max Power
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    You think it'll only go up from here? You were looking a lot better at the end of January/beginning of February.
    A company with a P/E that is one third Amazon and owns a bigger market share of online commerce? Yeah, might go up.

    Leave a comment:


  • xraygoggles
    replied
    I don't know how it will perform this year, but I consider BABA as sorta like a linchpin for the Chinese market.

    I haven't actually looked it up, but it would be interesting to see how well it correlates (or not correlate) with the overall Chinese market.

    Leave a comment:


  • CordMcNally
    replied
    Originally posted by Max Power View Post
    Guessing that ship has now sailed.

    I'm just surprised (and damm glad) the opportunity lasted as long as it did. Hmmm.
    You think it'll only go up from here? You were looking a lot better at the end of January/beginning of February.

    Leave a comment:


  • Max Power
    replied
    Originally posted by Max Power View Post
    ...You can start by buying a lot of BABA right now at or near $225...
    Guessing that ship has now sailed.

    I'm just surprised (and damm glad) the opportunity lasted as long as it did. Hmmm.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jack_Sparrow
    replied
    Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

    Agree about BABA, although the fact that Jack Ma has been AWOL for a few weeks now is sorta disconcerting - perhaps he went sent to a re-education camp.... But the company of course will survive with or without him. Waiting for a consolidation before I get some leaps.
    Baba is definitely a buy. China won’t destroy their best company. I bought @ 213 a share back on Christmas Eve. Jack Ma will return. He’s a CCP guy. He did come out and say CCP could have any part of the Ant company they wanted though. Im 90% sure CCP uses all the Baba data mining to track everyone though. So they can’t let their pipeline fall into the wrong hands. Baba is a good 6 months play but not 5 years IMO

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  • Max Power
    replied
    Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
    Agree about BABA, although the fact that Jack Ma has been AWOL for a few weeks now is sorta disconcerting - perhaps he went sent to a re-education camp.... But the company of course will survive with or without him. Waiting for a consolidation before I get some leaps.
    He gave a speech about Chinese monetary and financial reform, got severe sanctions from the govt, and increasingly disappeared starting a week later. The guy is not coming back, lol.

    You can't wait for "the bottom" on crashes and large dips like this. If you do, it's too late. Look at the TGT credit card breach 2013, WMT labor disputes and union concerns 2015-18, L Brands flirting with bankrupt 2019-20, entire Corona crash of nearly every S&P stock early this year, etc. Bad things happen to good stocks. You aren't buying one guy's system... I'm sure a few other ppl know how the systems works by now. The company has 100k+ employees. Also, at this point, you're basically buying the brand name... as you would be with WMT or AMZN.

    If you wait for "the bottom," "consolidation," "restructuring," and "stability," the shares have rapidly shot back up on that insider news before you even know it it happened. In this case it will soon be clear that there were 5 good folks chomping at the bit to run Alibaba, the new CEO will make closed-door agreements and payoffs with their corrupt govt, and the show will go on just like Apple without Jobs or Facebook without Parker or Berkshire without Warren (trust me, he might as well be gone already... and yet the steamroller moves along). With opportunity like this, all you can do is make a good stab when a high quality pony has a great price (fine strategy), or you can nibble all the way down (even better yet, but takes guts). Regardless of what my or your avg buy price is, we will both be liking it a lot this time next year. Best of luck.
    Last edited by Max Power; 01-04-2021, 07:15 PM.

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  • TheQuietOne
    replied
    Not all companies fail when they lose their founder/CEO, but not all succeed either. You can google and find many, many cases of successful businessmen disappearing in China. Below are two such companies with clear drops after they lose their founder. Maybe Alibaba and Ant Group will survive and do well, maybe they won’t. Depends on your risk tolerance I guess.
    Attached Files

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