2020 ends not with a bang....but not with a wimper.

[Brains428]

Meh, can one really claim victory this close to the fall of the tech industry of the world's second largest economy?

The government intervention should tamper forward expectation, though.

[StateOfMyHead]

Not only am I in disbelief of the stock and housing market but also those who are patting themselves on the back for having "made" so much money over the past couple of years...without actually liquidating. We are all likely to be big winners and losers multiple times over the course of our careers...on paper.

[xraygoggles]

Hang Seng is officially in a bear, so if there ever was a time to buy these cheap Chinese tech behemoths, now would be the time: "blood in the streets" etc.

[Zaphod]

Not only am I in disbelief of the stock and housing market but also those who are patting themselves on the back for having "made" so much money over the past couple of years...without actually liquidating. We are all likely to be big winners and losers multiple times over the course of our careers...on paper.

Some of us do liquidate from riskier holdings to safer, so essentially locking in some of those gains. Lots of those playing with levered funds, crypto, nfts, etc...put them into safer assets, or at least a percentage of the profits.

I got a deck and a sweet new acoustic out of my doge profits.

[Brains428]

xraygoggles I somewhat agree with you. My hesitance with taking a larger stance on China tech is the whole redistribution of profits to the people per government mandate. Maybe just buy CQQQ and see what happens?

[StateOfMyHead]

Some of us do liquidate from riskier holdings to safer, so essentially locking in some of those gains. Lots of those playing with levered funds, crypto, nfts, etc...put them into safer assets, or at least a percentage of the profits.

I got a deck and a sweet new acoustic out of my doge profits.

So that is reallocation not timing the market then? Not being at all sarcastic, just asking for clarification.

[childay]

a sweet new acoustic out of my doge profits.

What'd you get?

[Zaphod]

What'd you get?

Taylor 414ce ltd, cedar top. Not the plan when I went in there after research but the sound was amazing, just awesome.

[Zaphod]

So that is reallocation not timing the market then? Not being at all sarcastic, just asking for clarification.

Ive got zero problem timing the market either so it doesnt matter to me. I would classify that as more a Shannons demon problem.

Have always said you'll never catch me buying and holding or building up mental walls to make whatever Im doing not 'choosing a winner' or timing, etc...Im full on game. Just most of the time buy/hold is the answer.

[StateOfMyHead]

Ive got zero problem timing the market either so it doesnt matter to me. I would classify that as more a Shannons demon problem.

Have always said you'll never catch me buying and holding or building up mental walls to make whatever Im doing not 'choosing a winner' or timing, etc...Im full on game. Just most of the time buy/hold is the answer.

Thanks. I agree buy and hold most often the answer but I also prefer to reserve the right to make adjustments.

[Tangler]

Not only am I in disbelief of the stock and housing market but also those who are patting themselves on the back for having "made" so much money over the past couple of years...without actually liquidating. We are all likely to be big winners and losers multiple times over the course of our careers...on paper.

1. Good! You realize the ride will be bumpy

2.The market: It generally goes up over time. Hard to time but usually if you keep throwing $ in and let it ride then after 20-30 years you will have a pile of money.

3. Pick an AA, rebalance periodically, ignore the news = noise.

4. Keep investing, don’t try to time it. In 30 years hopefully we will be happy we did. work, earn, invest, repeat. Boring index funds.

5. Good place. You are fearful when it goes up, and not euphoric. You likely will not panic when it goes down but will view it as a sale = buying opportunity.

6. Stay the course. Avoid the speculative shiny objects (crypto, individual stocks) read bogleheads and wci

7. Focus on getting better at your real job and ignore the news= noise.

[Larry Ragman]

Not only am I in disbelief of the stock and housing market but also those who are patting themselves on the back for having "made" so much money over the past couple of years...without actually liquidating. We are all likely to be big winners and losers multiple times over the course of our careers...on paper.

Right there with you on this. Regarding buy and hold, it is the right answer most of the time but it is also not going to apply in all cases. Easiest exception to identify is periodic rebalancing. Another is play money. I put @Zaphod’s doge coin wins in this category. Not sure how much he had invested, but something like 5% of the portfolio in speculative investments seems fine - and trade as appropriate. In my own case, I am repositioning for retirement since I am within 5 years of my nominal retirement date. Well, I keep trying to rebalance to ~60-40 to avoid SORR, but the rising market is forcing me to engage more often than I would like. I just looked and I am back up over 70-30. I need to shift some more to bonds, I suppose. Good “problem” to have.

[Zaphod]

Right there with you on this. Regarding buy and hold, it is the right answer most of the time but it is also not going to apply in all cases. Easiest exception to identify is periodic rebalancing. Another is play money. I put @Zaphod’s doge coin wins in this category. Not sure how much he had invested, but something like 5% of the portfolio in speculative investments seems fine - and trade as appropriate. In my own case, I am repositioning for retirement since I am within 5 years of my nominal retirement date. Well, I keep trying to rebalance to ~60-40 to avoid SORR, but the rising market is forcing me to engage more often than I would like. I just looked and I am back up over 70-30. I need to shift some more to bonds, I suppose. Good “problem” to have.

it was tiny, 3k, but went nuts.

[Max Power]

... Just most of the time buy/hold is the answer.

I concur fully, but with no trading fees, it is definitely easier than ever to dump a loser quickly or free up money to plug into something with high potential. People are also wising up to the fact that the historic advice of always holding stocks for year for tax purposes is not too important... locking in gains matters much more.

But yeah, nearly anything that is a solid company now... will be in 5 or 10+ years also. I have sold GOOG shares only once in the last decade (sold maybe 10% of my GOOG to buy BABA at IPO), and I didn't do much better on what I bought with the money than I would have just holding GOOG. Kinda starting to feel that way about NVO now also... was planning to flip it after a good QE or two or three due to Wegovy, but might be a long term hold-and-build position stock where it will be hard to get more growth elsewhere. We shall see.

... something like 5% of the portfolio in speculative investments seems fine...

They are ALL speculative investments, man. Every single one. Nobody knows anything...

VOO is only valuable if USA keep working, producing, and 401ks and hedge funds keep buying. It can crash on fear too.
BABA can stay low as long as people are scared. If it were in Ohio, it would be a $500+ per share stock based on earnings and USA peers.
GOOG can keep making money hand over fist. It will only increase at a rate as valuable as funds and people want to pay for it.
LitCoin, BitCoin, SpitCoin, PitCoin and whatever else don't produce anything... yet they're valuable if people buy them, crash when interest wanes.

Basically, the only hypothetical non-speculative investment would be one where you knew with 100% certainty that many funds and people were going to buy blocks at a certain price... essentially, if you knew its support/resistance. That doesn't exist, though. Any stock from Apple to Walmart to 3M could get smashed tomorrow if funds dumped it and/or buyers weren't buying it. The P/E or product pipeline or book value is useful and fine, but they are meaningless without a market for the shares. Don't kid yourself that there are "safe" and "logical" investments or that stocks correlate to earnings or book values. Nobody knows anything

[CordMcNally]

If it were in Ohio, it would be a $500+ per share stock based on earnings and USA peers.

But it's not so why make the comparison?