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2020 ends not with a bang....but not with a wimper.

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Max Power View Post
    A company with a P/E that is one third Amazon and owns a bigger market share of online commerce? Yeah, might go up.
    The Chinese government is always such a wild card.

    Comment


    • #62
      Stocks new highs every week
      Crypto, GME, SPACs, NTFs, to the moon
      bonds still near all time highs
      Residential real estate up 10-15% YOY
      Car wash had been $6-7 for 15 years, all of a sudden it’s $9
      Airport parking which over 18 years went from $5-9 is suddenly $13

      The only thing going down is the value of my dollars.

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

        The Chinese government is always such a wild card.
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...ck-ma-inc/amp/

        End of an era - Baba not so bullish anymore.

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...ck-ma-inc/amp/

          End of an era - Baba not so bullish anymore.
          I wonder what Max Power 's thoughts are on this now. Always interesting to read through previous threads to gauge the sentiment at the time.

          Just for Ss & Gs I went through and mapped out previous funds that a certain poster mentioned that he felt would outperform this year. I don't have any fancy software so just used whatever I could Google. The most I could enter at a time was 5 funds and it would just add in the S&P 500 for comparison (although they use an orange line for the S&P 500 fund and a fund I would enter). I couldn't find a BCOFX fund so just used the BFOCX just assuming it was a typo.

          Click image for larger version  Name:	Fund Comparison 1.png Views:	0 Size:	3.8 KB ID:	277741

          Click image for larger version  Name:	Fund Comparison 2.png Views:	0 Size:	3.7 KB ID:	277742

          In each of these, the S&P 500 is the orange line just above the 11.0K mark. 2 funds have outperformed, 1 fund has essentially equal performance, and 7 have underperformed. Granted, this is just a comparison to the S&P 500 but interesting nonetheless at the halfway point. This post could go in the 'everything that glitters' thread.

          Disclosure: I know they had talked about comparing it to a portfolio that was 2/3 US funds and 1/3 international funds and I'm not sure which website I could use to do that but that results would not change much from the above.
          Last edited by CordMcNally; 06-09-2021, 08:50 AM.

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

            I wonder what Max Power 's thoughts are on this now. Always interesting to read through previous threads to gauge the sentiment at the time.

            Just for Ss & Gs I went through and mapped out previous funds that a certain poster mentioned that he felt would outperform this year. I don't have any fancy software so just used whatever I could Google. The most I could enter at a time was 5 funds and it would just add in the S&P 500 for comparison (although they use an orange line for the S&P 500 fund and a fund I would enter). I couldn't find a BCOFX fund so just used the BFOCX just assuming it was a typo.

            Click image for larger version Name:	Fund Comparison 1.png Views:	0 Size:	3.8 KB ID:	277741

            Click image for larger version Name:	Fund Comparison 2.png Views:	0 Size:	3.7 KB ID:	277742

            In each of these, the S&P 500 is the orange line just above the 11.0K mark. 2 funds have outperformed, 1 fund has essentially equal performance, and 7 have underperformed. Granted, this is just a comparison to the S&P 500 but interesting nonetheless at the halfway point. This post could go in the 'everything that glitters' thread.

            Disclosure: I know they had talked about comparing it to a portfolio that was 2/3 US funds and 1/3 international funds and I'm not sure which website I could use to do that but that results would not change much from the above.
            7 funds, thats just too much.

            I had four funds for most of this year and that seemed like a lot.

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post
              Stocks new highs every week
              Crypto, GME, SPACs, NTFs, to the moon
              bonds still near all time highs
              Residential real estate up 10-15% YOY
              Car wash had been $6-7 for 15 years, all of a sudden it’s $9
              Airport parking which over 18 years went from $5-9 is suddenly $13

              The only thing going down is the value of my dollars.
              None of this makes any sense to me. Except of course the lack of value for my dollar which I fully anticipated and am feeling.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by StateOfMyHead View Post

                None of this makes any sense to me. Except of course the lack of value for my dollar which I fully anticipated and am feeling.
                Of course not. It’s a distorted economy. It seems obvious a market downturn is coming. Unfortunately none of know when. I’ve been wondering how to take advantage. If I were younger I’d try hard to ignore the asset price run up until it subsides, but I’m close enough to retirement to worry. Best I’ve come up with: 1) avoid new real estate purchases while prices are inflated; 2) rebalance to retirement AA in tax deferred to avoid SORR; 3) enjoy the ride. If/when stocks crash I’ll rebalance bonds to equities in tax deferred, and TLH in taxable. If stock prices keep going up, well I guess I’ll be a little less wealthy. Definitely worth it to preserve gains to date. As for real estate, if I could sell the rental properties I would, but not really an option right now. Too bad because the real estate market is definitely frothy.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by Larry Ragman View Post
                  Of course not. It’s a distorted economy. It seems obvious a market downturn is coming. Unfortunately none of know when. I’ve been wondering how to take advantage. If I were younger I’d try hard to ignore the asset price run up until it subsides, but I’m close enough to retirement to worry. Best I’ve come up with: 1) avoid new real estate purchases while prices are inflated; 2) rebalance to retirement AA in tax deferred to avoid SORR; 3) enjoy the ride. If/when stocks crash I’ll rebalance bonds to equities in tax deferred, and TLH in taxable. If stock prices keep going up, well I guess I’ll be a little less wealthy. Definitely worth it to preserve gains to date. As for real estate, if I could sell the rental properties I would, but not really an option right now. Too bad because the real estate market is definitely frothy.
                  You make excellent points particularly the implications for those of us within 10 years of retirement. I have been agonizing over 2 rental property leases that I recently renewed but probably should have sold. They are solid investments and provide diversification but I likely overvalued the benefits of good tenants and positive cash flow as compared to the inflated prices properties are commanding now.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
                    I wonder what Max Power 's thoughts are on this now...
                    I bought 200 shares of BABA today. Some squeamish folks or some pressure from taxes or fines shouldn't take away from the fact that it's a VERY solid company with a P/E a fraction the size of Amazon's or other much weaker peers' ratio:
                    https://finance.yahoo.com/video/alib...093000466.html

                    Not only does Alibaba have a better company in terms of customer base size and tech versus Amazon, and they have cheaper labor and the products they sell right by them (and they can buy the companies if they choose). Ali does much much more than just commerce... their AI development is stronger than nearly any US assembly manufacture plant or distribution warehouse - in any industry. How many US companies can have a robot find a RFID tagged box in the warehouse shelf, shoot it 50mph on conveyer belts, and load it onto a truck on the far end of that giant warehouse with another robot? Almost none.
                    Amazon is a fine company and highly profitable also, but they're reliant on the supply chains from Asia to get the vast majority of their products to the USA. Amazon's advantages are that the average American's income is much higher (can make more money even with hundreds of millions fewer buyers) than the average Asian's and that their warehouses/trucks are obviously in the US for shipping... but again, those Amazon warehouses are largely dependent on being stocked and re-stocked with almost exclusively Asian-made products.

                    ...and yeah, I'm "down" on BABA this year and last (avg buy price around $220... buying heavy since Q4 2020 Jack Ma dip) if you want to talk unrealized gain/loss. I have done much better on NVO and GOOG and other picks, but I think BABA will be the month or quarter's winner of my portfolio soon enough also. Alibaba remains a buy through and through with a great business and a P/E of below 30 right now to Amazon's 70+ and sometimes recently 100+ ratio.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                      I bought 200 shares of BABA today. Some squeamish folks or some pressure from taxes or fines shouldn't take away from the fact that it's a VERY solid company with a P/E a fraction the size of Amazon's or other much weaker peers' ratio:
                      https://finance.yahoo.com/video/alib...093000466.html

                      Not only does Alibaba have a better company in terms of customer base size and tech versus Amazon, and they have cheaper labor and the products they sell right by them (and they can buy the companies if they choose). Ali does much much more than just commerce... their AI development is stronger than nearly any US assembly manufacture plant or distribution warehouse - in any industry.
                      Amazon is a fine company and highly profitable also, but they're reliant on the supply chains from Asia to get the vast majority of their products to the USA. Amazon's advantages are that the average American's income is much higher (can make more money even with hundreds of millions fewer buyers) than the average Asian's and that their warehouses/trucks are obviously in the US for shipping... but again, those Amazon warehouses are largely dependent on being stocked and re-stocked with almost exclusively Asian-made products.

                      ...and yeah, I'm "down" on BABA this year and last (avg buy price around $220... buying heavy since Q4 2020 Jack Ma dip) if you want to talk unrealized gain/loss. I have done much better on NVO and GOOG and other picks, but I think BABA will be the month or quarter's winner of my portfolio soon enough also. Alibaba remains a buy through and through with a great business and a P/E of 30 right now to Amazon's 70+ and sometimes recently 100+ ratio.
                      I don't care what the numbers say...the Chinese government is the biggest factor to me.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                        I bought 200 shares of BABA today. Some squeamish folks or some pressure from taxes or fines shouldn't take away from the fact that it's a VERY solid company with a P/E a fraction the size of Amazon's or other much weaker peers' ratio:
                        https://finance.yahoo.com/video/alib...093000466.html

                        Not only does Alibaba have a better company in terms of customer base size and tech versus Amazon, and they have cheaper labor and the products they sell right by them (and they can buy the companies if they choose). Ali does much much more than just commerce... their AI development is stronger than nearly any US assembly manufacture plant or distribution warehouse - in any industry. How many US companies can have a robot find a RFID tagged box in the warehouse shelf, shoot it 50mph on conveyer belts, and load it onto a truck on the far end of that giant warehouse with another robot? Almost none.
                        Amazon is a fine company and highly profitable also, but they're reliant on the supply chains from Asia to get the vast majority of their products to the USA. Amazon's advantages are that the average American's income is much higher (can make more money even with hundreds of millions fewer buyers) than the average Asian's and that their warehouses/trucks are obviously in the US for shipping... but again, those Amazon warehouses are largely dependent on being stocked and re-stocked with almost exclusively Asian-made products.

                        ...and yeah, I'm "down" on BABA this year and last (avg buy price around $220... buying heavy since Q4 2020 Jack Ma dip) if you want to talk unrealized gain/loss. I have done much better on NVO and GOOG and other picks, but I think BABA will be the month or quarter's winner of my portfolio soon enough also. Alibaba remains a buy through and through with a great business and a P/E of below 30 right now to Amazon's 70+ and sometimes recently 100+ ratio.
                        What do you think of Didi?

                        Could have been a winner, and may still be, but the luster of the IPO has obviously worn off completely. 500M+ users, steady monthly growth YoY, etc.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                          What do you think of Didi?

                          Could have been a winner, and may still be, but the luster of the IPO has obviously worn off completely. 500M+ users, steady monthly growth YoY, etc.
                          It is a very interesting idea for sure, but heir IPO was clearly at the worst possible time when all Asia tech is getting hammered for fears of anti-trust, fines and penalties, etc. That is a crowded space but the company seems to have as good a shot as any in that industry.

                          I guess I'm fortunate where I don't really need to swing for home runs anymore. I still consider myself a "picker," but the vast majority of my stocks are the leader or top 5-10 in their market. I don't tend to try for the IPOs or fledglings anymore. Other than that, it's basically just GOOG (clear leader), BABA (tied leader?), MMM, YUMC, USA and developing index funds, sector funds like IBB, REITs, etc type stuff... nothing interesting but just buy the dips and let the rich corporations keep getting richer.

                          The "risky" or "small" stuff I own was honestly FUN last year and now NVO this year... and even they are stable giants in their respective industry and not really too much of a dice roll. I am always open to buying basically buying anything DOW-ish if the price is right and always keep watchlists of a few dozen US and intl stocks and funds. Honestly, though, I'm probably just too lazy to routinely read much stock news and scan for "sleepers" anymore. Now, I can get pretty good results grabbing proven good stuff and just holding and/or selling calls... benefits of being at/near FI, I suppose.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                            I bought 200 shares of BABA today. Some squeamish folks or some pressure from taxes or fines shouldn't take away from the fact that it's a VERY solid company with a P/E a fraction the size of Amazon's or other much weaker peers' ratio:
                            https://finance.yahoo.com/video/alib...093000466.html

                            Not only does Alibaba have a better company in terms of customer base size and tech versus Amazon, and they have cheaper labor and the products they sell right by them (and they can buy the companies if they choose). Ali does much much more than just commerce... their AI development is stronger than nearly any US assembly manufacture plant or distribution warehouse - in any industry. How many US companies can have a robot find a RFID tagged box in the warehouse shelf, shoot it 50mph on conveyer belts, and load it onto a truck on the far end of that giant warehouse with another robot? Almost none.
                            Amazon is a fine company and highly profitable also, but they're reliant on the supply chains from Asia to get the vast majority of their products to the USA. Amazon's advantages are that the average American's income is much higher (can make more money even with hundreds of millions fewer buyers) than the average Asian's and that their warehouses/trucks are obviously in the US for shipping... but again, those Amazon warehouses are largely dependent on being stocked and re-stocked with almost exclusively Asian-made products.

                            ...and yeah, I'm "down" on BABA this year and last (avg buy price around $220... buying heavy since Q4 2020 Jack Ma dip) if you want to talk unrealized gain/loss. I have done much better on NVO and GOOG and other picks, but I think BABA will be the month or quarter's winner of my portfolio soon enough also. Alibaba remains a buy through and through with a great business and a P/E of below 30 right now to Amazon's 70+ and sometimes recently 100+ ratio.
                            $BABA came across my feed and I remember you being a big fan. I think you said in another post that you were a top 80%tile investor. Since index funds beat 92% of active funds over a 15 year period, is the reason you're underperforming because of $BABA? You've got to love it at $160, right?

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                              $BABA came across my feed and I remember you being a big fan. I think you said in another post that you were a top 80%tile investor. Since index funds beat 92% of active funds over a 15 year period, is the reason you're underperforming because of $BABA? You've got to love it at $160, right?
                              Yeah, I bought some chunks under 160, but it is back above 170 now... had a 9% gain the day after you wrote that (and I also sold many 185 on 09/10 contract calls that rebound day for a good price, so a lot of people think it'll rebound quick). That is almost unheard of for a company that big and established to jump nearly 10% without much news or a QE announce, but it is not a stock for the faint of heart. It has been seesawing down for a year now.

                              Their numbers are amazing; the trouble and low valuation is only because of the company being in China. It is a company with great tech, world class AI, nearly a billion active customers, over $100B revenue (yeah, billions) annual, huge profits/revenue and low stock P/E relative to its strength. People can buy stuff like that is under-priced yet stacks money over money over money... or buy Tesla-type stuff that is priced as if it were 5-10-20-100x as profitable as it really is. You do the math.

                              Again, Ali's not a stock for everyone, not a stock that's easy to predict, but a very solid company that is certainly not shrinking in growth or revenues by any stretch. My favorite stock I have right now is always and has been GOOG, NVO is solid, and indexes are always steady... but I still think BABA is probably the best value right now. Yes.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Has anyone looked up how EMD funds are doing? His top about the new economy fund from China is down 12.5% YTD.

                                Comment

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