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2020 ends not with a bang....but not with a wimper.

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Max Power View Post
    A company with a P/E that is one third Amazon and owns a bigger market share of online commerce? Yeah, might go up.
    The Chinese government is always such a wild card.

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    • #62
      Stocks new highs every week
      Crypto, GME, SPACs, NTFs, to the moon
      bonds still near all time highs
      Residential real estate up 10-15% YOY
      Car wash had been $6-7 for 15 years, all of a sudden it’s $9
      Airport parking which over 18 years went from $5-9 is suddenly $13

      The only thing going down is the value of my dollars.

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

        The Chinese government is always such a wild card.
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...ck-ma-inc/amp/

        End of an era - Baba not so bullish anymore.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgec...ck-ma-inc/amp/

          End of an era - Baba not so bullish anymore.
          I wonder what Max Power 's thoughts are on this now. Always interesting to read through previous threads to gauge the sentiment at the time.

          Just for Ss & Gs I went through and mapped out previous funds that a certain poster mentioned that he felt would outperform this year. I don't have any fancy software so just used whatever I could Google. The most I could enter at a time was 5 funds and it would just add in the S&P 500 for comparison (although they use an orange line for the S&P 500 fund and a fund I would enter). I couldn't find a BCOFX fund so just used the BFOCX just assuming it was a typo.

          Click image for larger version  Name:	Fund Comparison 1.png Views:	0 Size:	3.8 KB ID:	277741

          Click image for larger version  Name:	Fund Comparison 2.png Views:	0 Size:	3.7 KB ID:	277742

          In each of these, the S&P 500 is the orange line just above the 11.0K mark. 2 funds have outperformed, 1 fund has essentially equal performance, and 7 have underperformed. Granted, this is just a comparison to the S&P 500 but interesting nonetheless at the halfway point. This post could go in the 'everything that glitters' thread.

          Disclosure: I know they had talked about comparing it to a portfolio that was 2/3 US funds and 1/3 international funds and I'm not sure which website I could use to do that but that results would not change much from the above.
          Last edited by CordMcNally; 06-09-2021, 08:50 AM.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

            I wonder what Max Power 's thoughts are on this now. Always interesting to read through previous threads to gauge the sentiment at the time.

            Just for Ss & Gs I went through and mapped out previous funds that a certain poster mentioned that he felt would outperform this year. I don't have any fancy software so just used whatever I could Google. The most I could enter at a time was 5 funds and it would just add in the S&P 500 for comparison (although they use an orange line for the S&P 500 fund and a fund I would enter). I couldn't find a BCOFX fund so just used the BFOCX just assuming it was a typo.

            Click image for larger version Name:	Fund Comparison 1.png Views:	0 Size:	3.8 KB ID:	277741

            Click image for larger version Name:	Fund Comparison 2.png Views:	0 Size:	3.7 KB ID:	277742

            In each of these, the S&P 500 is the orange line just above the 11.0K mark. 2 funds have outperformed, 1 fund has essentially equal performance, and 7 have underperformed. Granted, this is just a comparison to the S&P 500 but interesting nonetheless at the halfway point. This post could go in the 'everything that glitters' thread.

            Disclosure: I know they had talked about comparing it to a portfolio that was 2/3 US funds and 1/3 international funds and I'm not sure which website I could use to do that but that results would not change much from the above.
            7 funds, thats just too much.

            I had four funds for most of this year and that seemed like a lot.

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post
              Stocks new highs every week
              Crypto, GME, SPACs, NTFs, to the moon
              bonds still near all time highs
              Residential real estate up 10-15% YOY
              Car wash had been $6-7 for 15 years, all of a sudden it’s $9
              Airport parking which over 18 years went from $5-9 is suddenly $13

              The only thing going down is the value of my dollars.
              None of this makes any sense to me. Except of course the lack of value for my dollar which I fully anticipated and am feeling.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by StateOfMyHead View Post

                None of this makes any sense to me. Except of course the lack of value for my dollar which I fully anticipated and am feeling.
                Of course not. It’s a distorted economy. It seems obvious a market downturn is coming. Unfortunately none of know when. I’ve been wondering how to take advantage. If I were younger I’d try hard to ignore the asset price run up until it subsides, but I’m close enough to retirement to worry. Best I’ve come up with: 1) avoid new real estate purchases while prices are inflated; 2) rebalance to retirement AA in tax deferred to avoid SORR; 3) enjoy the ride. If/when stocks crash I’ll rebalance bonds to equities in tax deferred, and TLH in taxable. If stock prices keep going up, well I guess I’ll be a little less wealthy. Definitely worth it to preserve gains to date. As for real estate, if I could sell the rental properties I would, but not really an option right now. Too bad because the real estate market is definitely frothy.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by Larry Ragman View Post
                  Of course not. It’s a distorted economy. It seems obvious a market downturn is coming. Unfortunately none of know when. I’ve been wondering how to take advantage. If I were younger I’d try hard to ignore the asset price run up until it subsides, but I’m close enough to retirement to worry. Best I’ve come up with: 1) avoid new real estate purchases while prices are inflated; 2) rebalance to retirement AA in tax deferred to avoid SORR; 3) enjoy the ride. If/when stocks crash I’ll rebalance bonds to equities in tax deferred, and TLH in taxable. If stock prices keep going up, well I guess I’ll be a little less wealthy. Definitely worth it to preserve gains to date. As for real estate, if I could sell the rental properties I would, but not really an option right now. Too bad because the real estate market is definitely frothy.
                  You make excellent points particularly the implications for those of us within 10 years of retirement. I have been agonizing over 2 rental property leases that I recently renewed but probably should have sold. They are solid investments and provide diversification but I likely overvalued the benefits of good tenants and positive cash flow as compared to the inflated prices properties are commanding now.

                  Comment

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