2020 ends not with a bang....but not with a wimper.

[xraygoggles]

I don't do individual stocks and have already made this quite clear. Neither my mouth nor my money are there. I did name the FUNDS a year or two ago. Look at what happened! Isn't that exactly what you're asking? Investment--->outcome relative to benchmarks? Bravo indeed!

Predicting may be fun but macro and microtrends change. I act on existing prevailing data, which evolves so my estimations evolve with it to keep up with the healthiest sectors as they change hands. Capital inflows shift back and forth, professional investors understand this. It's more fluid and less crystalline than people here think, hence why acting on predictions doesn't make sense.

You don't buy individual securities? You rely on the leveraged ETFs to pursue alpha? That's not too risky IMO. At least much less so than Tesla fanboys, crypto crazies, & stock pickers.

Not sure why you get so much hate on here then.. perhaps your prognosticating skills are lacking?

[xraygoggles]

The wealthy only leverage when they need to for good reason. Some things are generally not a good idea, like leveraging on margin for example.

I think me and Nysoz would beg to differ on this point.

Sure, 2020 could be a fluke year, but after you hit a certain number in your portfolio, even using some margin can be used to produce income. Whether it's through buying equities and selling covered calls on a high IV stock, or using margin to sell puts on a stock you want at a lower price, there are always opportunities to take advantage of, if you look hard enough, and take educated risks on margin.

[CordMcNally]

Sure, 2020 could be a fluke year,

I think it’s a foregone conclusion that 2020 is going to be a fluke year, especially in the investing world.

[EntrepreneurMD]

You don't buy individual securities? You rely on the leveraged ETFs to pursue alpha? That's not too risky IMO. At least much less so than Tesla fanboys, crypto crazies, & stock pickers.

Not sure why you get so much hate on here then.. perhaps your prognosticating skills are lacking?

I achieve decent overall returns with actually very little risk above and beyond the usual traditional indexing, 50% overall return 2020 in retirement accounts versus about 12-15% in the typical triple indexed portfolio. These are not token portfolio percentages in TSLA or BTC, these are several hundred thousand to 7 figures in each fund held. They're not thrilled with success outside of indexing and especially since my methods have held for years - goes against everything they read about failing over the long term. Tried indexing to be objective, returns were relatively low year over year.

Poor prognostication? No way I would have been able to choose the sector/leveraged funds that got me here as a poor prognosticator IMO. Three years ago I blogged - stick with tech, consumer staples, healthcare, China (all of which I had already bought into a few years prior to that) while avoiding banking, energy, industrials. Seems to have worked out okay.

In 2019 with the treasury inversion, I called a recession to happen in 2020 (the typical 12-15 month post-inversion recession that seems to happen like clockwork) with the DOW estimated to approximate 15K. It subsequently corrected from 29K to around 18K. Poor prognostication? I'd take that any day over the masses thinking things were just going to continue going up despite the economic weakness signaled by the inversion. Shifted back then to non-market investments I knew were not going to tumble. I did make the mistake of not shifting back early enough, so overall retirement returns could have been better than the 50% achieved this year.

Anyway a mid-career PCP at my NW, hope to continue with poor prognostication and "risky" investments. By the way, it's not hate, it's "constructive criticism". Ha! You know it never bothers me to learn from anyone after all it can only make me better. I have this conversation essentially every year - bad investor, poor timer, wrong predictions, too complicated - but just grow my NW a few mil each year consistently, enhanced by earlier compounding. Whatever it is, it works well flaws and all.

[Tim]

I think it’s a foregone conclusion that 2020 is going to be a fluke year, especially in the investing world.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2488/sp500-10-year-daily-chart

This year was different?

[CordMcNally]

https://www.macrotrends.net/2488/sp500-10-year-daily-chart

This year was different?

All the SPACs, Tesla, EV companies with no revenue worth billions, stimulus money, people who have never heard of stocks becoming day traders, etc. Yes, this year was different.

[VentAlarm]

Already answered upstream, but if you want more specifics Hang Seng China New Economy Index:

https://www.hsi.com.hk/eng

Ok, so you’re willing to commit to that one fund. What else will outperform? If you’re so good at this, stop telling me how good you are and prove it. Don’t just tell me how big your fish was.

[EntrepreneurMD]

Ok, so you’re willing to commit to that one fund. What else will outperform? If you’re so good at this, stop telling me how good you are and prove it. Don’t just tell me how big your fish was.

Ready for serious conversation and ignoring the anti-anything outside of indexing trolls because John C. told me so crowd? Not sure which side of that you're on and that presents a dilemma for me. If you're fully satisfied with the traditional 3-fund return of 12-15% this year then there's no reason for this conversation. If you genuinely want to know how I did about 50% returns this year overall in my retirement portfolio (that's not just the big fish, it's the whole portfolio) and more importantly how I maintain 2-4x index returns annually for my portfolio rather than getting too excited about a 1 time windfall from TSLA or Bitcoin. I'm looking at a 50 year + investment career, about 20 years into it. If you don't think that's that good there's no reason for this conversation either.

You're seriously asking me what WILL outperform, not what I think is LIKELY TO outperform? That suggests you're fine with indexing and don't care about anything else. Which is fine. I've been PMing back and forth with the interested crowd since there is so much intolerance to active investing, options, stock portfolio's, RE investing, etc here. Some of these are too risky for me and I don't engage in that. I look for the right balance between risk, return, effort. There's a real crowd here that ended 2020 with a bang and not a whimper. That's why we put in some extra effort. If your default is to easy and boring as is the case with many here...index. Asking an impossible question won't help anyone. What kind of proof exactly are you asking for and why should I have the same discussion as I do with those that express genuine interest?

I don't think I'll need to give up my big fish this year, but it's not like I know on 1/1 if it will continue to do well until 12/31 but track record suggests it should remain very good given the long term track record based on the 100 tech heavy fund holdings. Big fish did 101% this year, 79% last year, lost a little 2018. Big fish was NOT my best performer, which I picked up a few months ago. I have 10-12 fish at any given time, I think only one of them was underwater this year, but is it a relatively very small fish.

[VentAlarm]

Ready for serious conversation and ignoring the anti-anything outside of indexing trolls because John C. told me so crowd? Not sure which side of that you're on and that presents a dilemma for me. If you're fully satisfied with the traditional 3-fund return of 12-15% this year then there's no reason for this conversation. If you genuinely want to know how I did about 50% returns this year overall in my retirement portfolio (that's not just the big fish, it's the whole portfolio) and more importantly how I maintain 2-4x index returns annually for my portfolio rather than getting too excited about a 1 time windfall from TSLA or Bitcoin. I'm looking at a 50 year + investment career, about 20 years into it. If you don't think that's that good there's no reason for this conversation either.

You're seriously asking me what WILL outperform, not what I think is LIKELY TO outperform? That suggests you're fine with indexing and don't care about anything else. Which is fine. I've been PMing back and forth with the interested crowd since there is so much intolerance to active investing, options, stock portfolio's, RE investing, etc here. Some of these are too risky for me and I don't engage in that. I look for the right balance between risk, return, effort. There's a real crowd here that ended 2020 with a bang and not a whimper. That's why we put in some extra effort. If your default is to easy and boring as is the case with many here...index. Asking an impossible question won't help anyone. What kind of proof exactly are you asking for and why should I have the same discussion as I do with those that express genuine interest?

I don't think I'll need to give up my big fish this year, but it's not like I know on 1/1 if it will continue to do well until 12/31 but track record suggests it should remain very good given the long term track record based on the 100 tech heavy fund holdings. Big fish did 101% this year, 79% last year, lost a little 2018. Big fish was NOT my best performer, which I picked up a few months ago. I have 10-12 fish at any given time, I think only one of them was underwater this year, but is it a relatively very small fish.

I think what I am saying couldn’t be clearer, but I think you are intentional obfuscating it . You talk a big game and I think you’re (at least) exaggerating. You seem to think you have an incredible ability to pick investments. Either you can pick stocks/funds well, or you can’t. I’m asking (for the last time) for you to put your buck down. Tell me what stocks, etfs, sectors, whatever you think will significantly outperform. If you were me, today, what 10 things would you put your money in to outperform a three fund portfolio. I think you don’t have the guts to do it (because I think you know you’ll be wrong). I think you would rather talk in circles and give me excuses about why you don’t do it rather than name your funds because you know you will be proven wrong. Pick your funds, and pick a time period (1 month, 3 months 6 months or a year). Otherwise, admit you’re telling tall tales. Prove me wrong. Or don’t. Up to you.

[xraygoggles]

Poor prognostication? No way I would have been able to choose the sector/leveraged funds that got me here as a poor prognosticator IMO.

I was just asking whether that was the reason why you seem to irk a lot of people. I don't have an opinion either way - in fact I am always entertained by your contrarian, wordy, haughty posts.

Nuggets of wisdom here and there, if you look hard enough.

[EntrepreneurMD]

I think what I am saying couldn’t be clearer, but I think you are intentional obfuscating it . You talk a big game and I think you’re (at least) exaggerating. You seem to think you have an incredible ability to pick investments. Either you can pick stocks/funds well, or you can’t. I’m asking (for the last time) for you to put your buck down. Tell me what stocks, etfs, sectors, whatever you think will significantly outperform. If you were me, today, what 10 things would you put your money in to outperform a three fund portfolio. I think you don’t have the guts to do it (because I think you know you’ll be wrong). I think you would rather talk in circles and give me excuses about why you don’t do it rather than name your funds because you know you will be proven wrong. Pick your funds, and pick a time period (1 month, 3 months 6 months or a year). Otherwise, admit you’re telling tall tales. Prove me wrong. Or don’t. Up to you.

You asked the right question where the operative words are "think will significantly outperform".

1- MSSMX
2- BPTRX
3- RMQHX
4- MATFX
5- JAMFX
6- FSEAX
7- BCOFX
8- INPIX
9- GAAEX
10-MCSMX

Took about 20 minutes to come up with this portfolio, trying to be somewhat diversified with it. I don't think I have an incredible ability to do anything. I just went online and picked these after reviewing their top holdings, which is what I did with my own portfolio. Please refrain from telling me what I think.

Assume a 10% purchase of each on the first trading day of the year. 3-fund portfolio 1/3 VTSAX, 1/3 VFIAX, 1/3 Bond Fund

Look at all the time frames you listed, I'm most interested in 1 year.

I appreciate you letting me know you think I'm exaggerating with what my funds did in 2020. I like to know that people think these number are so difficult to achieve to understand the disconnect.

[VentAlarm]

You asked the right question where the operative words are "think will significantly outperform".

1- MSSMX
2- BPTRX
3- RMQHX
4- MATFX
5- JAMFX
6- FSEAX
7- BCOFX
8- INPIX
9- GAAEX
10-MCSMX

Took about 20 minutes to come up with this portfolio, trying to be somewhat diversified with it. I don't think I have an incredible ability to do anything. I just went online and picked these after reviewing their top holdings, which is what I did with my own portfolio. Please refrain from telling me what I think.

Assume a 10% purchase of each on the first trading day of the year. 3-fund portfolio 1/3 VTSAX, 1/3 VFIAX, 1/3 Bond Fund

Look at all the time frames you listed, I'm most interested in 1 year.

I appreciate you letting me know you think I'm exaggerating with what my funds did in 2020. I like to know that people think these number are so difficult to achieve to understand the disconnect.

I’m impressed. Thanks.

[Lithium]

You asked the right question where the operative words are "think will significantly outperform".

1- MSSMX
2- BPTRX
3- RMQHX
4- MATFX
5- JAMFX
6- FSEAX
7- BCOFX
8- INPIX
9- GAAEX
10-MCSMX

Took about 20 minutes to come up with this portfolio, trying to be somewhat diversified with it. I don't think I have an incredible ability to do anything. I just went online and picked these after reviewing their top holdings, which is what I did with my own portfolio. Please refrain from telling me what I think.

Assume a 10% purchase of each on the first trading day of the year. 3-fund portfolio 1/3 VTSAX, 1/3 VFIAX, 1/3 Bond Fund

Look at all the time frames you listed, I'm most interested in 1 year.

I appreciate you letting me know you think I'm exaggerating with what my funds did in 2020. I like to know that people think these number are so difficult to achieve to understand the disconnect.

Kudos.

But when you’re comparing a 100% stocks portfolio to a 3 fund portfolio that is 1/3 bonds, it isn’t really an indictment of indexing if the 3 fund portfolio underperforms. I think if you would have chosen almost any ten equity-based mutual funds at the start of 2020, it would have outperformed the three fund portfolio simply because equities did better than bonds.

If you want to compare your ten funds against a portfolio of 2/3 VTSAX and 1/3 VTIAX, I’ll buy that.

[EntrepreneurMD]

I’m impressed. Thanks.

While this exercise is whimsical, would you like me to explain why it is not reflective of what I do in reality? Or will I be accused of clouding the picture? It may help explain why my actual returns are very difficult to believe. In actuality they're not exaggerated but enhanced due to several things I do while holding my positions. I understand that this introduces complexity, but wouldn't a little extra effort be worth it for 7 figure returns/year, compounded by the higher balance each year?

If no one desires, I will not bother to explain what I do to help guarantee success and enhance returns when suboptimal to simply hold, above and beyond the funds' stated returns or the sector outlook on a given fund changes at any point.

[xraygoggles]

All the SPACs, Tesla, EV companies with no revenue worth billions, stimulus money, people who have never heard of stocks becoming day traders, etc. Yes, this year was different.

SPACs are just taking off, there will be as much or even more of them this year, mark my words. There's a lot of innovation happening right now in the private markets, both via SEC loosening regulations for accredited investor status, and internally from the VC people/entrepreneurs who are working around the traditional methods of going public. It's great IMO.

Also, do you think the run up last year was due to Robinhood traders who have a average balance of like 1k or something ridiculously small? Of course not, it was a combination of whales buying options (Softbank ring a bell?), Wall Street using those free trillions of dollars to invest, and negative real interest rates, forcing everyone to go to equities for some sort of return. I don't see that changing this year or the next. The party will continue for a while.