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2020 ends not with a bang....but not with a wimper.

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  • 2020 ends not with a bang....but not with a wimper.

    as always, my crystal ball has been and will always remain cloudy.

    total US: ~+20.9% YTD
    total intl: ~+10.7%
    REIT: ~-4.6%
    total bond: ~+7.7%

    HNY.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Peds View Post
    HNY
    Peds always on brand

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    • #3
      I think the indexing community needs a new catchphrase other than the cloudy crystal ball.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by pierre View Post
        I think the indexing community needs a new catchphrase other than the cloudy crystal ball.
        My tea leaves are mushy?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Peds View Post
          as always, my crystal ball has been and will always remain cloudy.

          total US: ~+20.9% YTD
          total intl: ~+10.7%
          REIT: ~-4.6%
          total bond: ~+7.7%

          HNY.
          what’s your source? does that include dividends? are those in local currencies or dollars?

          Comment


          • #6
            don't f****** try to time the market.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by MPMD View Post
              don't f****** try to time the market.
              Very direct and to the point.

              How about: My Grays Sports Almanac is missing a page?

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              • #8
                Momentarily, I thought this was going to be a NSFW thread.

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                • #9
                  I told you all in advance (again) the Nasdaq/100 was the index to be in. Clear crystal ball. Leveraging it was good for a 100% return 2020. Sounds like a bang to me!! Enjoyed my fool's errand.

                  The price of ignoring wisdom...I mean foolishness...is significant relative underperformance. Missed opportunity. A longer road to FI/RE. I do know though that some didn't ignore and are sitting pretty on a FIRE fast track. FIREworks going into 2021!!!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    BTC- 303%
                    TSLA- 730.4%

                    Insanity...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by EntrepreneurMD View Post
                      I told you all in advance (again) the Nasdaq/100 was the index to be in. Clear crystal ball. Leveraging it was good for a 100% return 2020. Sounds like a bang to me!! Enjoyed my fool's errand.

                      The price of ignoring wisdom...I mean foolishness...is significant relative underperformance. Missed opportunity. A longer road to FI/RE. I do know though that some didn't ignore and are sitting pretty on a FIRE fast track. FIREworks going into 2021!!!
                      Your crystal ball is clear? Here's a post from you in February 28th, 2020. Emphasis mine. Leveraging? You're bragging about a huge cash position and how a "lion's share" of your investments are OUT OF THE MARKET because you think you predicted a prolonged bear market. Just another example of how your logic, actions and winning tactics flip flop depending on the current circumstances. The one consistent part? It always paints the picture that you knew exactly what was going to happen.

                      Happy new year, never change.

                      Originally posted by EntrepreneurMD View Post

                      If I'm talking optimal market buying opportunity, we enter a bear market (20% drop from high) and then a full blown recession. Generally a full recession historically means a drop to the peak of the last bull market (2007 in this case) of around DOW 15K. If Corona just goes away (unlikely) and we rebound to new highs in a V pattern, then to me that is a failure to convince me to buy more. Reason is the treasury inversion still hangs over us and I would not believe in the long term sustainability of that rebound. Also I'm not certain this pullback is purely COVID related or COVID is just an excuse for a more ominous market turn, ignoring the headlines I'm starting to worry about the second.

                      No tingle, I am a market history kind of guy. Most here do not believe in the research I do or the red flags that gave me pause 2 years ago. Markets are back to that point.

                      The market is below where it was when I was mocked regarding my concerns regarding the treasury inversion and the expected melt-up but those in the know know what happens next. Those who heeded were cautious about buying into hyperextended PE's, others continued to buy higher than where the market is at today.

                      People here just never understood what I meant by the importance of diversifying investments outside of the market, in my case my CRE and personal business investments. These gave me sustained growth during the Great Recession and should continue to hold up during the next.

                      My cash positions and CD's have been mocked, but I know they are only understood in times of recession. They protect our non-market investments and personal finances so net worth can continue to grow without interruption during recessions. My large cash positions and 3% CD's would look brilliant in times of recession - it's all about perspective kept in both good and bad times.

                      VIX is over 40, treasury notes making new record lows. While recession with this correction is not certain the risk is high that it is here or coming soon. I've urged people to protect themselves for some time now. Some still have no problem buying at bull market tops (high), more power to them. I'm in no emotional rush, real opportunity is not rushed. Alternative investments means I do not feel I am missing out on market returns since the returns are available elsewhere. Given current levels, the market is down from 2 years ago. In under 3 years, I'll have paid off a new building paying me an extra doctor's salary and a business with record revenues 2019. There's a reason why I say those desperate for market returns lose their objectivity regarding the realities of those market returns. The market is not the end all it is perceived to be, only one part of a more diversified investment strategy. The wealthiest in the world did not get rich investing in the broader market - they generally did so investing in their own company/companies. I know the billionaire analogy gets under your skin, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't mimic their investment into the company I own. Gates Microsoft. Bezos Amazon. Warren multiple. Me mine.

                      It gets me to where a recession doesn't bother me but prepares me for the next opportunity to do it better than last time. To answer OP's question. I'm holding up just fine. Regarding my asset allocation, the lion share of my investments remain at highs and growing and they're not beholden to a stock market.
                      https://forum.whitecoatinvestor.com/...-up#post187439

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Brains428 View Post
                        BTC- 303%
                        TSLA- 730.4%

                        Insanity...
                        Did you capture those gains? Lucky, or good? Either way, I hope 1) you bet the bank; 2) you never do that again.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by EntrepreneurMD View Post
                          I told you all in advance (again) the Nasdaq/100 was the index to be in. Clear crystal ball. Leveraging it was good for a 100% return 2020. Sounds like a bang to me!! Enjoyed my fool's errand.

                          The price of ignoring wisdom...I mean foolishness...is significant relative underperformance. Missed opportunity. A longer road to FI/RE. I do know though that some didn't ignore and are sitting pretty on a FIRE fast track. FIREworks going into 2021!!!
                          What is the index to be in for 2021?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by EntrepreneurMD View Post
                            I told you all in advance (again) the Nasdaq/100 was the index to be in. Clear crystal ball. Leveraging it was good for a 100% return 2020. Sounds like a bang to me!! Enjoyed my fool's errand.

                            The price of ignoring wisdom...I mean foolishness...is significant relative underperformance. Missed opportunity. A longer road to FI/RE. I do know though that some didn't ignore and are sitting pretty on a FIRE fast track. FIREworks going into 2021!!!
                            Oh, great wise one, what are the 10 stocks that will significantly outperform the index this year?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              [QUOTE=TheDangerZone;n247571]

                              Your crystal ball is clear? Here's a post from you in February 28th, 2020. Emphasis mine. Leveraging? You're bragging about a huge cash position and how a "lion's share" of your investments are OUT OF THE MARKET because you think you predicted a prolonged bear market. Just another example of how your logic, actions and winning tactics flip flop depending on the current circumstances. The one consistent part? It always paints the picture that you knew exactly what was going to happen.

                              Happy new year, never change.


                              Oh yeah thanks! The lion share, in CRE and business investment had a great year too. Hence 2020 saw about $1.5M in debt erased and rising non-market asset appreciation. What a bang! FIREworks!!!

                              Of course I adjust based on the prevailing data, that's how it all comes together so well each year. Resilience and flexibility are key.

                              Excited about 2021!

                              Comment

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