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  • #16
    Wow.

    Several reasons i personally would avoid this:

    1. single stock (uncompensated risk vs VTSAX)
    2. I don’t understand it (even if i were to pick stocks)
    3. They bought bitcoin
    4. feels like another hype machine like Tesla
    5. If it makes it big, it will show up big in VTSAX anyway.

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    • #17
      Overstock has already tried this with some but limited success.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Tangler View Post
        Wow.

        Several reasons i personally would avoid this:

        1. single stock (uncompensated risk vs VTSAX)
        2. I don’t understand it (even if i were to pick stocks)
        3. They bought bitcoin
        4. feels like another hype machine like Tesla
        5. If it makes it big, it will show up big in VTSAX anyway.
        already in vtsax
        vtsax owns a little over 3% of MSTR
        0.0036% of your vtsax investment is in MSTR

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Tangler View Post
          Wow.

          Several reasons i personally would avoid this:

          1. single stock (uncompensated risk vs VTSAX)
          I'd say the compensation is the 90% more money you could have earned in the last 2 months buying MSTR rather than VTSAX.

          Not that I'd advocate buying MSTR (might as well just buy bitcoin or something similar), but obviously there is some compensation. For the risk, there's a potential reward.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Tangler View Post
            1. single stock (uncompensated risk vs VTSAX)
            I would call Bitcoin more of an asymmetric risk. Meaning the potential upside is exponentially larger than the potential loss.

            Tesla was another asymmetric risk last few years, if you were paying attention. Some other ones in 2020 would be real estate in VHCOL areas (SF, NYC); Ethereum; Gold futures; SPAC warrants; equity LEAPs; cannabis plays. I've dabbled in some of these, and I'm not complaining at all with the results to date.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

              already in vtsax
              vtsax owns a little over 3% of MSTR
              0.0036% of your vtsax investment is in MSTR
              The word: BIG is what you missed. I know it is there, along with the unknown winners you and i don’t recognize.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                I would call Bitcoin more of an asymmetric risk. Meaning the potential upside is exponentially larger than the potential loss.

                Tesla was another asymmetric risk last few years, if you were paying attention. Some other ones in 2020 would be real estate in VHCOL areas (SF, NYC); Ethereum; Gold futures; SPAC warrants; equity LEAPs; cannabis plays. I've dabbled in some of these, and I'm not complaining at all with the results to date.
                Wouldn't every stock technically be an asymmetric risk using that definition?

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                  Wouldn't every stock technically be an asymmetric risk using that definition?
                  I think it's more used in the world of hedge funds, using macro and micro trends along with algorithms. So no, not every stock would apply. It doesn't apply only to stocks also.

                  The way I use the term is basically trying to prognosticate certain trends which are occurring or imminent.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Tangler View Post

                    The word: BIG is what you missed. I know it is there, along with the unknown winners you and i don’t recognize.
                    my bad, I did miss that

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                      I think it's more used in the world of hedge funds, using macro and micro trends along with algorithms. So no, not every stock would apply. It doesn't apply only to stocks also.

                      The way I use the term is basically trying to prognosticate certain trends which are occurring or imminent.
                      Asymmetrical risk is easier to identify after the fact.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

                        Asymmetrical risk is easier to identify after the fact.
                        After you missed out on millions? I guess.
                        Last edited by xraygoggles; 12-17-2020, 06:03 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          “hes not framing this as an investment. They’re looking at btc as their treasury reserve asset. ”

                          •Hedging is a risk management technique to reduce risk, basically a zero sum game.
                          •Hedge fund is an attempt to leverage profits by increasing risks.

                          Currency hedging is the most familiar treasury function. Net foreign currency exposure is hedged. No matter which way it fluctuates, the result in base currency is the same.

                          Taking an “open” position is speculation. It is absolutely ignorant to spin this as a “treasury reserve”.

                          Give me the btc receivables/payables.
                          If the convertible notes were denominated in btc, the btc holdings would be a hedge. The is what the treasury asset would accomplish.

                          This is just currency speculation. Be like Nick!

                          https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...995-20-archive

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

                            they purchased their btc with cash reserves that Saylor couldn’t figure out anything better to do with.

                            Their notes were just issued so we will see what they do with their new debt.

                            don’t conflate a discussion of a story I find interesting, with my opinion. I would find it similarly interesting if Microstrategy had chosen to put their reserves in gold.

                            Yeah, this is interesting. There are so many investment options, why this one? Just buying a mutual fund, or BTC is easy - and doesn't take the work VC does... I'm interested to see how much capital is made available for lending in 2021 - There is certainly a lot of capital sitting around.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

                              Asymmetrical risk is easier to identify after the fact.
                              YES! My problem is the following: It makes is seem like any fool could do it.

                              It "seems" like anyone could see which stocks will be winners, and that everyone could benefit from putting in a little time and effort and they should do it.

                              In 1996-1997 I ordered some cook books on amazon while in medical school.

                              I also saw Amazon sold other cool stuff too (books on tape, music, etc.)

                              I thought at the time: "this book company is awesome, it has to do great, If I had some money and was not a broke medical student I would buy some stock in Amazon."

                              Does that mean I am smart? Smarter than average? Able to pick winners? Should I have bought tons of single stocks instead of paying off my 6% student loans?

                              We will never know for certain, but my guess is:

                              No.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Tangler View Post

                                YES! My problem is the following: It makes is seem like any fool could do it.

                                It "seems" like anyone could see which stocks will be winners, and that everyone could benefit from putting in a little time and effort and they should do it.

                                In 1996-1997 I ordered some cook books on amazon while in medical school.

                                I also saw Amazon sold other cool stuff too (books on tape, music, etc.)

                                I thought at the time: "this book company is awesome, it has to do great, If I had some money and was not a broke medical student I would buy some stock in Amazon."

                                Does that mean I am smart? Smarter than average? Able to pick winners? Should I have bought tons of single stocks instead of paying off my 6% student loans?

                                We will never know for certain, but my guess is:

                                No.
                                I think lots of things. Most people have really awesome predictions all the time. The trick is acting on the ones that end up being correct.

                                In the case of Amazon you remember that because of the life altering "loss" you experienced by not investing. But if you had similar thoughts about pretty much any other book company at the time you would have been in a world of hurt if you acted on it.

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