Bitcoin is still early

[Cool Breeze]

It's not about being sure. It's about risk/reward. Passive investing is the furthest thing from "sure" yet you act like it is a sure thing. Hint hint, it isn't.

BTC is still a much better investment AND it has the added advantage of, if all things go to crap, you actually being able to take it anywhere and keep it from confiscation. That is not true of any other asset class currently.

[NapoleanDynamite]

The idea of dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin is insanity. The idea that Bitcoin is comparable to a diversified index in terms of risk is insanity.

You dollar cost average into something that has a high probability of doing well in the long term (like a well diversified index).

It’s the things that you are absolutely sure of that turn out to be wrong that will kill you.

We agree on something..."It's the things that you are absolutely sure of that turn out to be wrong that will kill you" (Although I think "kill you" is a little extreme).

I am absolutely sure of nothing in the future. I am fairly sure of the past (assuming no 4th dimensions). I am sure that I currently disagree with your suggestion that DCA-ing into Bitcoin is "insanity".

Assuming WCI doesn't remove these posts, we will be able to look back 5 years from now and see who was truly "insane". I have been weekly DCA buying since 9/21. The DCA buys are up 16% at this time. That's through the majority of the spike and so far through the dip....

Anyone can play with this website https://dcabtc.com/ and learn what DCA buying would have done for them the past 10 years...And yes, I realize past performances do not guarantee future returns. The same can be said of the stock market, real estate, oil/gas/commodities, gold etc etc etc. I agree with data though, and the data does not support your claims.

IMO the idea that a diversified index is the only thing you can think of that has a "high probability of doing well in the long term" and that Bitcoin will not do well in the long term is insanity. But....difference of opinion I guess

[NapoleanDynamite]

You are. I seriously doubt that many people who invested in digital currency in 2017 invested in Bitcoin only. They most likely also invested in many of the other digital currencies that either stayed flat or went down in value, so unless you invested in Bitcoin only, you’re unlikely to be winning.

You are right....I did cherry pick...Although most would re-phrase it Rotten Cherry Pick. Usually when one Cherry picks, they are picking the best time frame.

[Dont_know_mind]

IMO the idea that a diversified index is the only thing you can think of that has a "high probability of doing well in the long term" and that Bitcoin will not do well in the long term is insanity. But....difference of opinion I guess

That is the nub of it.
I think a well diversified index (including my nemesis the SP500) will have a good chance of a positive return over a 15 year time frame.
I don't think Bitcoin does.
But who knows, I hope you are right. I have no investment in bitcoin, so don't mind if it goes to $100,000 or $1.

I do think some of the arguments and euphoria around crypto are eerily simillar to the dotcom era. The laser eyes, faux-intellectual arguments ("if you looked deeper into it you would understand....") and general gibberish.

Some people will be shrewd enough to get out before the top (which could have just been) but mostly not, I would guess. Some people will get hurt with the thinking that it is like investing in the SP500, I would guess. Anyway that is just my opinion. I hope no one gets hurt too much.

My return for the period since January 2020 is 80%, which sounds good, but it just makes up for the losses I made in the dotcom bubble, the REIT bubble, the resources bubble etc. For about 5 years I was carrying forward a 700k loss from a catastrophic set of speculations in 2014. I am now about -2% p.a cf if I had indexed from when I started investing (year 1998) in the equity account, but with taking a lot more risk. So beating the index is harder than it seems over a 20 year period.

Anyway, I found this forum and Bogleheads when I was in the wilderness in the 2014-2018 period and regrouping. I think most people have an uncle point where if they lose a years worth of income it will hurt. Say you make 500k a year, if you permanently lose 500k, that will hurt. I think the most I lost was 1.5M over a 5 year period. That hurt.

No one should take anything I say seriously. Most of my responses are just reactions to errors I've made in the past and probably no real bearing on their situation.
But yes, it's certainly possible to be wrong and lose. That can set in train a set of bad decision making where you lose your brain and end up with a loss far larger than you imagined possible. That doesn't kill you I found, but it feels awful when you're going through it.
Hopefully you are luckier.
I tend to think it is just part of the education of a speculator and why most people move towards indexing over time.

[Nysoz]

BTC is still a much better investment AND it has the added advantage of, if all things go to crap, you actually being able to take it anywhere and keep it from confiscation. That is not true of any other asset class currently.

To provide context, I have a very little in crypto and I wouldn’t categorize it as an investment but more of a speculative hedge.

Btc is only as valuable as what someone else thinks it’s worth. If things truly do go to crap, sure you can take your btc anywhere and keep in from confiscation. But then to use it or trade it you’ll have to find people/businesses that accept it and value it the same as you. If you can’t find those people then it’s not worth anything.

[Cool Breeze]

To provide context, I have a very little in crypto and I wouldn’t categorize it as an investment but more of a speculative hedge.

Btc is only as valuable as what someone else thinks it’s worth. If things truly do go to crap, sure you can take your btc anywhere and keep in from confiscation. But then to use it or trade it you’ll have to find people/businesses that accept it and value it the same as you. If you can’t find those people then it’s not worth anything.

As with any other asset out there. I don't know why people remind us of this, over and over and over. Everyone is speculating, by the way, on every asset class currently.

That's what "investing" is. It's amazing that we still have to have these conversations.

[burritos]

https://www.kqed.org/news/11644927/eucalyptus-how-californias-most-hated-tree-took-root-2

An early 20th century boom

Within a few decades of its arrival, many Californians grew disenchanted with eucalyptus. Blue gum proved terrible for woodworking — the wood often split and cracked, making it a poor choice for railroad ties. The trees also proved thirsty enough to drain nearby wells.

“If you go back to California farm journals of the 1870s, '80s, '90s, there’s just report after report of disappointment, like ‘these trees are no good,’ ” says Farmer, the historian.

But things changed in the early 20th century when U.S. Forest Service officials grew concerned about a looming timber famine. They feared forests in the eastern United States had been overexploited and wouldn’t grow back, and predicted the supply of hardwood would dwindle over the next 15 years.

The bark sheds often, peeling in large strips. (Samantha Shanahan/KQED)
Investors saw an opportunity: California had a tree capable of growing to full size within that time frame. If hardwood was about to be scarce, they reasoned, such trees could be in high demand and yield sizable returns within a few short years. (These people, Farmer says, were not reading blue gum’s lousy reviews in old farm reports. “And even if they did read them, maybe they wouldn’t care because they just wanted to make a buck; they were just flipping land.”)

This played out as a speculative frenzy — a bubble. Boosters began selling plantations dense with eucalyptus — hundreds of trees per acre. Farmer writes in his book that claims were made like: “Forests Grown While You Wait,” and “Absolute Security and Absolute Certainty.” In just a few years, millions of blue gums were planted from Southern California up to Mendocino.

The anticipated timber famine never came to pass. Forests further east proved more resilient than expected, and the need was offset by concrete, steel and imports, like mahogany. Ultimately, the thousands of acres of eucalyptus planted around California were not even worth cutting down. Much of what you see today is a century-old abandoned crop.

Not saying that bitcoin is a eucalyptus bubble, but interesting that mankind has always had collective enthusiasm when potential riches are involved.

[xraygoggles]

The thing about crypto now (specifically Bitcoin) is that its considered a viable asset class, so it's very unlikely to go to zero. It may never get to the grandiose numbers bandied about, but it will certainly be volatile, and trade within a range, until a catalyst (negative or positive) comes forward. The fact that hedge funds, Wall Street, foreign banks & countries are getting in on it makes it more likely to stick around.

The other crypto, notably Ethereum and all the DeFi projects, have some viability and a lot of potential, but it's still all speculative. It seems unlikely that it could go to zero, at least anytime soon, but that also may be a case of "famous last words."

I still trade the vast majority of shitcoins, but I also have set allocations of BTC and ETH (5-10% each) in both retirement and taxable accounts. I also keep a DeFi index coin, which makes it much easier to get exposure to the large cap DeFi projects.

[Max Power]

Olympics 2024 Paris committee just decided they're going to do Bitcoin instead of gold medals...

1st Bitcoin
2nd Silver
3rd Bronze

It is a valuable and viable asset class. It is now an industrial metal also. Buy it before it's at one bajillion quadrillion dollars per coin.

...YTD: BTC is up approx 10%. Any other asset class one would be ecstatic with a 10-20% return per year, but yes, VTSAX is beating it so far YTD
YTD: VTSAX is up approx 17%. Doing well this year no doubt. (I Still own a ton of VTSAX....I still believe in diversification)...

Hmm, I think I made more than that on NVO this past month... bought on the Wegovy FDA approve for US weight loss announcement and locked in the gains today.

[Doc Spouse]

I still dabble in crypto and have done well with it, but I've made an absolute killing with NFT's in the last six months. If you've been playing with crypto and haven't looked at those yet, you may want to give it a look. It's pure insanity, even by crypto standards, but it's making money.

[piloto11]

Doc Spouse,

Can you explain further?

[Doc Spouse]

Sure. NFT stands for Non-Fungible Token. Good read up on it here, if a bit limited considering that each chain has it's own quirks and capabilities and you have semi-fungibles now. A very simplistic way of putting it is that a NFT represents a singular digital 'something'. It's provably unique and recorded on the blockchain that it resides upon.

NFT's have a lot of possible utility since they're immutable and unique. People being people, right now they're being used for stuff like this: https://www.cyberkongz.com/about Scroll down a bit and you'll see some pictures of apes. Each of those pictures has a NFT behind it, which basically turns it into a collectible trading card.

As a personal example, I got into CyberKongz back when they were about .3 ethereum (roughly $500 at the time). I've been selling them recently for around 10-13 eth each ($25-30k). Still have a few left, and they're now at 20 eth (closing on $60k as I type this) The profit margins on these can be insane if you stumble across the right ones.

Of course, that's part of the trick. There are a ton of NFT's out there and picking the right ones is the name of the game. Much like stocks, but without those pesky fundamentals. I try to spot projects that will appeal to people and that have a good team behind them that will continue to push the project forward. Gala Games is another one I'm heavy into. Created by a co-founder of Zynga, they've sold single NFT's for millions and there's no sign of them slowing down.

If you're saying to yourself, "Who would ever pay for such things?", there are plenty of people doing so. Some do it as collectors, others do it as investors, and some do it for passive income.

Those Kongz up there pay out 10 bananas every day. Bananas are a token form of crypto currency and are currently priced at roughly $6 per banana. An extra $60 per day income may not move the needle much for many here, but there are people who own dozens and even hundreds of these Kongz. They are pulling in significant passive income, for a relatively low buy-in back before these got popular.

If you've heard about CryptoPunks, Axie Infinity, CryptoKitties, Bored Ape Yacht Club, you're already heard about NFT's. They're gathering steam, especially on the art side of things. For example:

Christies Auctions: https://www.christies.com/features/1...s-11569-1.aspx

Jack Dorsey's First Tweet: https://www.ledgerinsights.com/jack-...r-2-9-million/

And of course, Beeple: https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/11/2...ays-69-million

It's definitely a craze, that will likely morph into something actually serious and useful later on. For now, it's a great way to make money if you're already in the cryptosphere.

Hope that helps

[xraygoggles]

Sure. NFT stands for Non-Fungible Token. Good read up on it here, if a bit limited considering that each chain has it's own quirks and capabilities and you have semi-fungibles now. A very simplistic way of putting it is that a NFT represents a singular digital 'something'. It's provably unique and recorded on the blockchain that it resides upon.

NFT's have a lot of possible utility since they're immutable and unique. People being people, right now they're being used for stuff like this: https://www.cyberkongz.com/about Scroll down a bit and you'll see some pictures of apes. Each of those pictures has a NFT behind it, which basically turns it into a collectible trading card.

As a personal example, I got into CyberKongz back when they were about .3 ethereum (roughly $500 at the time). I've been selling them recently for around 10-13 eth each ($25-30k). Still have a few left, and they're now at 20 eth (closing on $60k as I type this) The profit margins on these can be insane if you stumble across the right ones.

Of course, that's part of the trick. There are a ton of NFT's out there and picking the right ones is the name of the game. Much like stocks, but without those pesky fundamentals. I try to spot projects that will appeal to people and that have a good team behind them that will continue to push the project forward. Gala Games is another one I'm heavy into. Created by a co-founder of Zynga, they've sold single NFT's for millions and there's no sign of them slowing down.

If you're saying to yourself, "Who would ever pay for such things?", there are plenty of people doing so. Some do it as collectors, others do it as investors, and some do it for passive income.

Those Kongz up there pay out 10 bananas every day. Bananas are a token form of crypto currency and are currently priced at roughly $6 per banana. An extra $60 per day income may not move the needle much for many here, but there are people who own dozens and even hundreds of these Kongz. They are pulling in significant passive income, for a relatively low buy-in back before these got popular.

If you've heard about CryptoPunks, Axie Infinity, CryptoKitties, Bored Ape Yacht Club, you're already heard about NFT's. They're gathering steam, especially on the art side of things. For example:

Christies Auctions: https://www.christies.com/features/1...s-11569-1.aspx

Jack Dorsey's First Tweet: https://www.ledgerinsights.com/jack-...r-2-9-million/

And of course, Beeple: https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/11/2...ays-69-million

It's definitely a craze, that will likely morph into something actually serious and useful later on. For now, it's a great way to make money if you're already in the cryptosphere.

Hope that helps

Congrats on getting in on the NFT mania. I have been following it, but was too lazy to actually do the due diligence needed to choose potential multibaggers.

I do have multiple NFT tokens however, which have been rocketing recently.

[chucki]

BTC up 58+ % in 3 weeks

[G]

BTC up 58+ % in 3 weeks

another ~40% and we'll be testing the highs again.