Bitcoin is still early

[xraygoggles]

they simply don’t work well , it’s always waiting for the next thing. Eth 2.0 will fix everything the eth people claim. We will see , right now eth network doesn’t work.

To be fair, eth 2.0 and PoS should reduce the fees, but the other problems may still remain...

[Panscan]

If eth 2.0 ever happens

[paullras]

Bitcoin is a distraction. It will be propped up as a tool used by narcos, child sex traffickers, gun-runners, terrorists, and tax-cheats; just like cash. Then each nation-state/banking cartel will introduce their own digital currency with all the "benefits", helping poor people, yaddi-yaddi of crypto with all those "evils" magically fixed.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Bitcoin is a distraction. It will be propped up as a tool used by narcos, child sex traffickers, gun-runners, terrorists, and tax-cheats; just like cash. Then each nation-state/banking cartel will introduce their own digital currency with all the "benefits", helping poor people, yaddi-yaddi of crypto with all those "evils" magically fixed.

Wow this is such an incredibly bad take and factually incorrect on so many levels. Thank you for your consideration.

In other news, Bitcoin going through a nice dip has been offering a great time to buy. The miners being completely shut down in China has significantly contributed to the price. The only question I have is how low will the price go before it continues a steady march up and to the right. 18K is still in play but still more likely that after some continued sideways action it starts marching up again. I am still DCA buying and have added some to my buys.

I will say that this bear dip has made things a lot more calm as it relates to less text messaging and questions from friends. Always interesting that when price is mooning everyone wants to buy, but when it is dipping, no one seems to care anymore. I'm very happy with the hope that Bitcoin offers over the next 5-20 years.

[blippi]

Hope springs eternal.

Where my money at?

[billy]

I will say that this bear dip has made things a lot more calm as it relates to less text messaging and questions from friends. Always interesting that when price is mooning everyone wants to buy, but when it is dipping, no one seems to care anymore. I'm very happy with the hope that Bitcoin offers over the next 5-20 years.

you mean, like a bubble?

I know you're bullish long term on bitcoin, more power to you. But that observation that you just gave is part of my reason to avoid it.

[NapoleanDynamite]

you mean, like a bubble?

I know you're bullish long term on bitcoin, more power to you. But that observation that you just gave is part of my reason to avoid it.

Go back to page 4 of this thread....Here is an exchange from November of 2020 when others were already saying "bubble" at BTC price of 17K.

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  NapoleanDynamite
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  #62
  11-16-2020, 11:12 PM
  Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
  Bitcoin almost at 17k. Hasn't been this high since the last bubble. I'm curious to see whether it can surpass 20k...
  The question is not "whether" but "when and how quickly?" When it surpasses 20k people will start talking about it more and talking bubble (All Time Highs), and when it surpasses 100K people will still be talking bubble...they will still be wrong.

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  CordMcNally
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  #63
  11-16-2020, 11:40 PM
  Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post
  The question is not "whether" but "when and how quickly?" When it surpasses 20k people will start talking about it more and talking bubble (All Time Highs), and when it surpasses 100K people will still be talking bubble...they will still be wrong.
• Call the top.

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  NapoleanDynamite
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  #65
  11-17-2020, 04:07 PM
  Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
  Call the top.
  That's humorous. I am not Nostradamus.
  
  But I see Bitcoin's value in the 6 figure range in the next 1-5 years and the 7 figure range in the next 1-10 year range. When these things occur and what is the "top" I would not attempt to predict in any more specific manner. I will say that the "top" may not be for many years or decades. There will likely be "tops" and significant volatility along the way, although I think the volatility (on a percentage basis) will be less than the last 10 years. I expect some significant volatility over the next 12 months.
  Also it's fine to keep making fun of me. Time will be the ultimate judge. Right now is a good time for me. At some point there will be a 10%, 20%, or 60% drop and you will be making fun of me...but if that drop is from 100K to 40K, then it's likely I'm still doing all right.

[billy]

Just saying that description of your friends' behavoirs 2 post ago is clearly described as step 2 in a bubble (the boom) https://www.investopedia.com/article...f-a-bubble.asp That does not mean I'm saying BTC is at its peak, lowest, will gain from here, or will go to zero crashing and burning. Like I said, more power to you to keep going, but I'm still (as I was last year) watching from the sidelines sitting this one out, and am very comfortable doing so.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Just saying that description of your friends' behavoirs 2 post ago is clearly described as step 2 in a bubble (the boom) https://www.investopedia.com/article...f-a-bubble.asp That does not mean I'm saying BTC is at its peak, lowest, will gain from here, or will go to zero crashing and burning. Like I said, more power to you to keep going, but I'm still (as I was last year) watching from the sidelines sitting this one out, and am very comfortable doing so.

Billy,

I understand what you are saying....and many would say that we just had another "bubble" pop.

My argument is that BTC in fact has not been in a bubble for the past 12 years and is in fact normal volatility for this technology. I know this is an argument in semantics. But, in my opinion the price of Bitcoin is still trading at a price that is in it's normal historical volatility level. It just happens to have more volatility than most are accustomed to. As it grows over the next 5-20 years, and as the price increases, this volatility will continue to decrease.

For some the volatility is too worrisome and that keeps them away. But anyone who has ever held Bitcoin for longer than 3 years has had significant returns on their investment. So I keep a long term investing perspective and leave the short term fluctuations to do what they will.

[Tim]

In economic analysis, trends can give insight. Basic supply/demand, price/volume etc.

What is causing the demand spikes and when will the next spike hit? Understand that and it is suitable for a speculative bet.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/trade-volume

Volumes seem to driving value. I don’t understand it. Not so sure it hasn’t peaked.

[G]

Billy,

I understand what you are saying....and many would say that we just had another "bubble" pop.

My argument is that BTC in fact has not been in a bubble for the past 12 years and is in fact normal volatility for this technology. I know this is an argument in semantics. But, in my opinion the price of Bitcoin is still trading at a price that is in it's normal historical volatility level. It just happens to have more volatility than most are accustomed to. As it grows over the next 5-20 years, and as the price increases, this volatility will continue to decrease.

For some the volatility is too worrisome and that keeps them away. But anyone who has ever held Bitcoin for longer than 3 years has had significant returns on their investment. So I keep a long term investing perspective and leave the short term fluctuations to do what they will.

Yes, it is very much semantics. When something drops in value by 50%, what would you call that?

Sure, it might come back. I think it was Zaphod that pointed out that tulips are still a huge part of the Dutch economy, but that doesn't mean that the run-up was ridiculous.

Recall that this winter, folks were talking about BTC being worth 6 digits by the end of the month.

And I do like the 3 year time frame. But let's go to 4 years to include the last spike. From a quick look at the charts, if someone bought at the spike in 2017, they would have done better buying VTSAX.

Or lets cherry pick another timeframe: YTD. Ooof, also not a good cocktail party discussion.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Yes, it is very much semantics. When something drops in value by 50%, what would you call that?

Sure, it might come back. I think it was Zaphod that pointed out that tulips are still a huge part of the Dutch economy, but that doesn't mean that the run-up was ridiculous.

Recall that this winter, folks were talking about BTC being worth 6 digits by the end of the month.

And I do like the 3 year time frame. But let's go to 4 years to include the last spike. From a quick look at the charts, if someone bought at the spike in 2017, they would have done better buying VTSAX.

Or lets cherry pick another timeframe: YTD. Ooof, also not a good cocktail party discussion.

Ok...let's play.

YTD: BTC is up approx 10%. Any other asset class one would be ecstatic with a 10-20% return per year, but yes, VTSAX is beating it so far YTD
YTD: VTSAX is up approx 17%. Doing well this year no doubt. (I Still own a ton of VTSAX....I still believe in diversification)

So let's do "4 years" ... but then you say to include the last spike. I will make it easy....from the peak of 2017 which was around December 15th, 2017 (this is debatable depending on whether you use close of day or peak intraday) This would have been the absolute worst timing to buy BTC on a 4 year time frame.

BTC price if purchased at 2017 Peak and held until today: up 67% (or about 15% CAGR) (Mind you that is buying at the absolute top/the absolute worst timing ever in 2017 and assuming you only bought the top and made no additional buys)

VTSAX price if purchased at the same date in 2017: up 63% (or about 15% CAGR)

So in conclusion, if you had the absolute worst timing in the history of Bitcoin and bought at the top of the 2017 cycle...and then didn't DCA one more dime into your position...and just held until today...and made the same purchase of VTSAX in 2017...BTC would still be winning.

Had you bought and held at any other time during the past 4 years you would be crushing returns of the VTSAX.

So who is cherry picking exactly?

[Panscan]

Ok...let's play.

YTD: BTC is up approx 10%. Any other asset class one would be ecstatic with a 10-20% return per year, but yes, VTSAX is beating it so far YTD
YTD: VTSAX is up approx 17%. Doing well this year no doubt. (I Still own a ton of VTSAX....I still believe in diversification)

So let's do "4 years" ... but then you say to include the last spike. I will make it easy....from the peak of 2017 which was around December 15th, 2017 (this is debatable depending on whether you use close of day or peak intraday) This would have been the absolute worst timing to buy BTC on a 4 year time frame.

BTC price if purchased at 2017 Peak and held until today: up 67% (or about 15% CAGR) (Mind you that is buying at the absolute top/the absolute worst timing ever in 2017 and assuming you only bought the top and made no additional buys)

VTSAX price if purchased at the same date in 2017: up 63% (or about 15% CAGR)

So in conclusion, if you had the absolute worst timing in the history of Bitcoin and bought at the top of the 2017 cycle...and then didn't DCA one more dime into your position...and just held until today...and made the same purchase of VTSAX in 2017...BTC would still be winning.

Had you bought and held at any other time during the past 4 years you would be crushing returns of the VTSAX.

So who is cherry picking exactly?

One asset is also significantly riskier than the other. I do get your point about cherry picking numbers and BTC/crypto in general has had a great run recently, just hard to compare apples to oranges. Would compare crypto more to a leveraged ETF risk wise and even LETF likely quite a bit less risk.

[HikingDO]

Ok...let's play.

YTD: BTC is up approx 10%. Any other asset class one would be ecstatic with a 10-20% return per year, but yes, VTSAX is beating it so far YTD
YTD: VTSAX is up approx 17%. Doing well this year no doubt. (I Still own a ton of VTSAX....I still believe in diversification)

So let's do "4 years" ... but then you say to include the last spike. I will make it easy....from the peak of 2017 which was around December 15th, 2017 (this is debatable depending on whether you use close of day or peak intraday) This would have been the absolute worst timing to buy BTC on a 4 year time frame.

BTC price if purchased at 2017 Peak and held until today: up 67% (or about 15% CAGR) (Mind you that is buying at the absolute top/the absolute worst timing ever in 2017 and assuming you only bought the top and made no additional buys)

VTSAX price if purchased at the same date in 2017: up 63% (or about 15% CAGR)

So in conclusion, if you had the absolute worst timing in the history of Bitcoin and bought at the top of the 2017 cycle...and then didn't DCA one more dime into your position...and just held until today...and made the same purchase of VTSAX in 2017...BTC would still be winning.

Had you bought and held at any other time during the past 4 years you would be crushing returns of the VTSAX.

So who is cherry picking exactly?

You are. I seriously doubt that many people who invested in digital currency in 2017 invested in Bitcoin only. They most likely also invested in many of the other digital currencies that either stayed flat or went down in value, so unless you invested in Bitcoin only, you’re unlikely to be winning.

[Dont_know_mind]

The idea of dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin is insanity. The idea that Bitcoin is comparable to a diversified index in terms of risk is insanity.

You dollar cost average into something that has a high probability of doing well in the long term (like a well diversified index).

It’s the things that you are absolutely sure of that turn out to be wrong that will kill you.