Bitcoin is still early

[Nysoz]

https://medium.com/swlh/blockchain-for-dummies-d3daf2170068

I read this and understand a bit.

[Zaphod]

line go up (sometimes down)

[CordMcNally]

I just don’t understand it enough. I tried to understand in 2016, but found the blockchain concept confusing. You mine it? With computers? some math thing? Unique code added to the end of chain? wait.....what?!
I must fall back on Buffet and Munger who avoid investing in things they don’t understand.

rfbr-cryptoassets.ashx (cfainstitute.org)

[chrisCD]

Well, I couldn't find the post that someone made quoting Buffet about being greedy when others are fearful. The context of his quote was buying good companies when they are on sale. Bitcoin may be on sale, but it isn't a company.

As I posted a bit back, I did dabble. When it comes to any investment, don't invest more than you can afford to lose. And...William Bernstein: If You've Won the Game, Stop Playing. When your bet pays off, take some off the table. Doge Millionaire, I'm talking to you. :O)

cd :O)

[Tim]

• "When it comes to any investment, don't invest more than you can afford to lose."
• When it comes to gambling, plan on losing it.
• Notice a slight difference on your chosen risk appetite.

[blippi]

It feels like i invested in “the blockchain,” which is a wild west of similar currencies and i don’t see how there are legal protections to make a clear winner. is one hoping to monopolize like amazon? reminds me of the 90s, when everyone needed to invest in “the internet” and anything-dot-com was a winner.

And so implore Elon to keep manipulating for my pay off: Daddy needs a tweet! environmental impact of btc isn’t so bad . . .

[xraygoggles]

Crypto is not a new form of currency, a paradigm shift, or any other libertarian gibberish you can conjure up.

It's simply a trading asset, you can use to trade & speculate. Buy low, sell high, repeat ad nauseum. Just don't get too levered up, or else you will end up like the many people who crashed & burned yesterday...

[xraygoggles]

It feels like i invested in “the blockchain,” which is a wild west of similar currencies and i don’t see how there are legal protections to make a clear winner. is one hoping to monopolize like amazon? reminds me of the 90s, when everyone needed to invest in “the internet” and anything-dot-com was a winner.

And so implore Elon to keep manipulating for my pay off: Daddy needs a tweet! environmental impact of btc isn’t so bad . . .

It's no surprise Elon has resorted to tweeting about crypto - there is no SEC peeking around the corner, no fines to be had, no negative consequences whatsoever. He's able to satiate his increasingly erratic ego whenever he likes by moving a trillion-dollar market around at will.

[Cool Breeze]

ditto, what you said.

Cool Breeze- Despite facebook amazon google netflix succeeding, are you denying that there was a tech bubble in the late 90s? Your words are exactly what my college friends were saying back then about each and every tech stock. BTC rising again just means people are still willing to speculate again. At least NapoleanDynamite is backing up his belief by buying the dip. BTW curious to hear your explanation on how the USD is a bubble.

- another gen xer.

First off, for Zaphod, nothing is personal. I'm not worried about others point of view, especially if they have takes and are earnest in said takes - leftists are the emotional ones.

As for billy, sure I'll gladly respond. Tech Bubble in the late 90s? Yes of course. Do I have a problem calling this a crypto "bubble"? No, because that's a more apt comparison. The problem with people so frequently these days is that they are not critical thinkers and don't give good comparisons, because they are lazy and want to make conclusions, then back fit. BTC is a crypto asset, just like Amazon was a tech company, but neither are bubbles. That's the point. Is Doge a bubble? Sure, it looks like it without a real use case (and BTC has one, which is why it isn't).

I bought the dip again.

How is the USD not a bubble? Compared to BTC, it is far more manipulated, intrinsically. USD is based on absolutely NOTHING, if we must say that. By the way, that doesn't bother me, I just don't make stupid statements like BTC is based on nothing, because beyond not mattering, it's not true.

What do we know for sure, historically? All fiats go to zero. That's actually the definition of a bubble. Gold won't go to zero, though it theoretically could. Why? It is a proxy for labor, energy, and human work. Same goes for BTC. Its supply can't be invented out of nothing, like a real ponzi and bubble that any fiat can turn into - and which the USD has.

Counter any point, if you please, but I don't think it's possible, because I've tried and there is no counter.

[Zaphod]

First off, for Zaphod, nothing is personal. I'm not worried about others point of view, especially if they have takes and are earnest in said takes - leftists are the emotional ones.

As for billy, sure I'll gladly respond. Tech Bubble in the late 90s? Yes of course. Do I have a problem calling this a crypto "bubble"? No, because that's a more apt comparison. The problem with people so frequently these days is that they are not critical thinkers and don't give good comparisons, because they are lazy and want to make conclusions, then back fit. BTC is a crypto asset, just like Amazon was a tech company, but neither are bubbles. That's the point. Is Doge a bubble? Sure, it looks like it without a real use case (and BTC has one, which is why it isn't).

I bought the dip again.

How is the USD not a bubble? Compared to BTC, it is far more manipulated, intrinsically. USD is based on absolutely NOTHING, if we must say that. By the way, that doesn't bother me, I just don't make stupid statements like BTC is based on nothing, because beyond not mattering, it's not true.

What do we know for sure, historically? All fiats go to zero. That's actually the definition of a bubble. Gold won't go to zero, though it theoretically could. Why? It is a proxy for labor, energy, and human work. Same goes for BTC. Its supply can't be invented out of nothing, like a real ponzi and bubble that any fiat can turn into - and which the USD has.

Counter any point, if you please, but I don't think it's possible, because I've tried and there is no counter.

If you dont think its possible you have not thought very deeply on it. You misunderstand what USD is backed by, but first a slight detour, all money is an accepted agreed value prop, its all "made up". There is actually no accepted definition of bubble making the discussion intrinsically difficult.

The USD is indeed backed up by something, "the full faith and credit of the US". On a first level process this is the purchasing/production power of the wealthiest nation on earth and reserve currency sovereign producer. Will this last forever? Unlikely, but long enough for us.

On a much more cynical and dark level, but no less true that "ff&c" is the US military and their commitment to protecting our assets, ie the navy monitoring and safeguarding oil routes, wars for resources/dominance, etc...This is the reality.

BTC despite tremendous capital deployment has not proven a good use case outside either except speculation, illicit money transfers and capital flight. Its a failure as a store of value or a currency, its simply too volatile.

[NapoleanDynamite]

If you dont think its possible you have not thought very deeply on it. You misunderstand what USD is backed by, but first a slight detour, all money is an accepted agreed value prop, its all "made up". There is actually no accepted definition of bubble making the discussion intrinsically difficult.

The USD is indeed backed up by something, "the full faith and credit of the US". On a first level process this is the purchasing/production power of the wealthiest nation on earth and reserve currency sovereign producer. Will this last forever? Unlikely, but long enough for us.

On a much more cynical and dark level, but no less true that "ff&c" is the US military and their commitment to protecting our assets, ie the navy monitoring and safeguarding oil routes, wars for resources/dominance, etc...This is the reality.

BTC despite tremendous capital deployment has not proven a good use case outside either except speculation, illicit money transfers and capital flight. Its a failure as a store of value or a currency, its simply too volatile.

On a much more cynical and dark level, but no less true that "ff&c" is the US military - Agree and true. This will rear its ugly head again at some point in the future....be it sooner or later.

BTC despite tremendous capital deployment has not proven a good use case outside either except speculation, illicit money transfers and capital flight. Its a failure as a store of value or a currency, its simply too volatile. - Disagree and untrue. "You have not thought very deeply on it."

[MMM]

Which crypto are people buying on the dip? I own a little bit of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and LiteCoin on Robinhood

[Zaphod]

On a much more cynical and dark level, but no less true that "ff&c" is the US military - Agree and true. This will rear its ugly head again at some point in the future....be it sooner or later.

BTC despite tremendous capital deployment has not proven a good use case outside either except speculation, illicit money transfers and capital flight. Its a failure as a store of value or a currency, its simply too volatile. - Disagree and untrue. "You have not thought very deeply on it."

I didnt say it was impossible, I do believe there are arguments I may not have heard or weighed, which would change my mind. Im no zealot, I will short your favorite company and get long the next day if something changes.

To be a currency, one of the most important things is stability, Im not going to transact in something that might be up 200% in a year, I've wasted money. Otoh, a merchant will not transact and hold said currency if it can go down 50% before they put it in the bank. So far, failure.

Store of value, not yet, though it could become gold as believers in gold, uh, fade. I dont disagree there, just not there yet.

[NapoleanDynamite]

I didnt say it was impossible, I do believe there are arguments I may not have heard or weighed, which would change my mind. Im no zealot, I will short your favorite company and get long the next day if something changes.

To be a currency, one of the most important things is stability, Im not going to transact in something that might be up 200% in a year, I've wasted money. Otoh, a merchant will not transact and hold said currency if it can go down 50% before they put it in the bank. So far, failure.

Store of value, not yet, though it could become gold as believers in gold, uh, fade. I dont disagree there, just not there yet.

1. "It's only good use case is either speculation, illicit money transfers, and capital flight" - This statement is just flat out untrue. At this point, someone making a statement like this loses credibility on their true knowledge base. It is actually quite a ridiculous statement in 2021. Ther might have been some truth to it in 2011 with the Silk Road, or even into 2017 with the speculation part....but now it is simply not true.

2. I would argue that everyone who has held bitcoin for longer than 6 months would differ with your opinion as it relates to store of value. You might be too ethnocentric (not using this term in a derogatory fashion) for this if you are located in the United States, but pretty much everyone outside of the US would disagree with you in relation to it not being a store of value. And as I mentioned, it has been the single best store of value for anyone that has held it longer than 6 months.

3. Again, I believe you are looking at things too much from your own point of view. It is currently being used as a currency in many places around the world. You should really learn about what Jack Mallers is doing in El Salvador as we type. There are many people currently transacting almost entirely in bitcoin. They are literally using it as a currency right now. Third world countries that have lived through multiple rounds of thousands of percent change in their currency due to inflation don't even bat an eye at a 30% drop. But, I do agree with you that for first world countries it should not be used as a form of currency at this time. BTC may never be used as a form of currency by the dominant global countries. However, it is still far too small of a market cap to make this final conclusion. Currency usage is literally the last step of the ladder for BTC. When the BTC market cap is over 10 Trillion you will start to see some stabilization, but even then it will still likely be too volatile for common currency use. At 100 Trillion, currency use becomes more reasonable. Although it may seem crazy to you, there are many paths to this conclusion.

[Lordosis]

By store of value to people mean against inflation? How can any cryptocurrency be a good store of value? I would not want to store my value in something that could lose half its value in a couple of weeks.

Just because something has done well for the past 6 months or a year or even a few years does not make it the ultimate store of value.

But maybe if everybody read up more on it and spent more time studying it they would understand the negatives. ( See this can work the other way too)