Bitcoin is still early

[Outdoors]

Sorry, I should clarify. I just meant in general, as I interact with others, not necessarily just in this forum. There are certainly "believers" out there, but this seems different than in 2017. In 2017, all the people around me were talking about it non-stop, asking how to buy, etc. Right now, I don't really hear anyone talking about it, outside of an occasional "oh I heard bitcoin hit an all-time high on the news," or something in passing like that.

I definitely agree with this from anecdotal experience. If any talk about finance, it's mostly been about meme stocks. Very little crypto talk among the average Joe. The obvious difference this time is the institutional demand as the primary driver. e.g. the Ivy league endowments started buying Bitcoin months ago.

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/5-reasons-i-dont-invest-in-bitcoins/

Also I just found this from Dec. 30, 2013 searching the site. Only 10k invested in Bitcoin that date would be worth $831k USD today. I can't blame WCI though. I first heard about Bitcoin in 2012 or 13 and didn't buy in until 2020. If only....

[jacoavlu]

I am not really sure what the moon would be with bitcoin. It has gone higher then I expected already. Seems pretty bubbly. I do not have convictions strong enough to put money on it but I bet we see 10k again before 100k.

you picked good numbers for a bet. I wouldn't choose either side confidently. But since the downside is already taken, I'll take the upside.

So the bet:

Upside wins, you have to change your profile pic to a bitcoin symbol and I get to write you a nice non-offensive pro-bitcoin signature for all your posts, to persist for two months. And if downside wins?

bump reminder my friend Lordosis and I have a 1 year bet going made at end of 2020 when BTC was about $27k.

will we see spot BTC at $10k or $100k this year?

[chocolatebear11]

Lordosis very unlikely for Bitcoin to go back down to 10k.

there’s event that occurs about every 4 years for Bitcoin called the halvening (where mining rewards decrease by half), since 2008 each time the halvening occurred Bitcoin never dropped below a certain level. There was a statistical chart that showed the level but can’t find it.

this year with larger insitutions invested that do not delve in trading, Bitcoin unlikely to drop that low.

if Bitcoin does go anywhere to 10k, there will be so many buyers.

[jacoavlu]

Lordosis very unlikely for Bitcoin to go back down to 10k.

there’s event that occurs about every 4 years for Bitcoin called the halvening (where mining rewards decrease by half), since 2008 each time the halvening occurred Bitcoin never dropped below a certain level. There was a statistical chart that showed the level but can’t find it.

this year with larger insitutions invested that do not delve in trading, Bitcoin unlikely to drop that low.

if Bitcoin does go anywhere to 10k, there will be so many buyers.

certainly seems improbable that we will see $10k again but it didn’t seem that way 2.5 months ago when price went 3x in about 3 months

personally I would be surprised if we see a price in the 30s ever again at this point. But you never know.

[Jantoven]

certainly seems improbable that we will see $10k again but it didn’t seem that way 2.5 months ago when price went 3x in about 3 months

personally I would be surprised if we see a price in the 30s ever again at this point. But you never know.

Yeah. I think it's possible, but I think with the sheer volume of institutional buyers now, the "floor" of bitcoin is considerably higher / stronger than in the past. If bitcoin climbs to, say, 80k, then sharply retracts to 50k, I imagine a number of the institutional buyers will look at that as a great buying opportunity and scoop it up.

I forget the exact numbers, but if it ends up being worth gold's market cap, I think that correlates to a price of 400k per BTC or something along those lines (and hence the projections). Certainly seems something that is attainable by 2030, if not sooner.

For those who are interested in a take on bitcoin that isn't coming from the cryptocurrency industry, Lyn Alden is a pretty good read, as she delves into all sorts of financial topics. Very reasonable takes, IMO:

https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoins-network-effect/

It's probably a 10+ minute read, as it's fairly in-depth, but it's a neat read.

[Zaphod]

Bitcoin is already traded more in volume/$ by institutional money than retail. Institutional adoption recently was a good entry point and obvious for legitimization.

I dont find bitcoin that useful and think it has a ton of drawbacks, but that its having large scale take up is undeniable.

[Jantoven]

Bitcoin is already traded more in volume/$ by institutional money than retail. Institutional adoption recently was a good entry point and obvious for legitimization.

I dont find bitcoin that useful and think it has a ton of drawbacks, but that its having large scale take up is undeniable.

I think Elon Musk said it well when he felt that cryptocurrency was "almost as BS as fiat."

[Zaphod]

I think Elon Musk said it well when he felt that cryptocurrency was "almost as BS as fiat."

The truth is all money is an illusion, we're all honestly just better off if we dont think about it too much.

[Max Power]

The truth is all money is an illusion, we're all honestly just better off if we dont think about it too much.

Yes, precisely. ^^^

Just like status of people or person(s) is an illusion, so is money. We are all apes wearing cloth. "Money" is all paper from a printer (or maybe numbers on a computer now). We can debate how much "value" a collector coin has, what an old baseball card should go for, or how much "prestige" an athlete or celebrity has until we're blue in the face. All that matters is the price they can command at the time of sale/hire/trade/etc.

Money is "worth" whatever people will value it as. That is how FOREX can be so lucrative to those who know it (I have always been scared to try and doing fine with stocks+options). The world reserve currencies all have had their day in the sun - from Greece to UK, they all came and went. Bitcoin is on a tear right now, and I have no problem with people trying to basically day trade or swing trade that BTC run. To convince oneself that crypto is legitimately valuable in and of its own right just because it is rising in value is foolhardy, though. If you are chasing a buck, chase a buck... don't try to tell people about fundamentals that don't exist, lol. The institutions aren't doing that; they simply see something on its way up, buy some, then talk it up so other buyers follow (just as they do with stocks). It might hit 100k, or it might crash as it did a couple years ago... it all depends on more buyers coming in. It's greater fool theory 101.

Bitcoin trades more like a startup company (Nasdaq) than a currency (FOREX market). I would assume that's because Bitcoin was created and supply controlled by individuals and not a sovereign nation. USD or other failed past world reserve currencies (pound sterling, francs, etc etc) had value for a fairly long timespan due to their nation's military might to acquire/protect assets and their ability to tax their people's productivity (GDP). It was simply assumed they were responsible with the currency supply... and they invariably were not. As soon as they overprinted or the military flounders, all bets are off. Will Chinese yuan be next if US crumbles from within during our lifetime? Who knows?

...Gold is the undefeated, undisputed all-time champ, though. It has survived and thrived through literally thousands of human-created currencies (commodities, coinage, paper notes... now digital). The funny thing is that gold isn't even really trying to be money... it is just the best suited thing for the role (since humans can't control its supply... as they tried to with all the failed "money" of the past).

...bitcoin is better harder money than gold. That’s the outline

You win the day, sir. Bitcoin is hard money. Hilarious stuff!
Be sure not to check back in 5 or 25 or 500 years, though.

[jacoavlu]

Yes, precisely. ^^^

Just like status of people or person(s) is an illusion, so is money. We are all apes wearing cloth. "Money" is all paper from a printer (or maybe numbers on a computer now). We can debate how much "value" a collector coin has, what an old baseball card should go for, or how much "prestige" an athlete or celebrity has until we're blue in the face. All that matters is the price they can command at the time of sale/hire/trade/etc.

Money is "worth" whatever people will value it as. That is how FOREX can be so lucrative to those who know it (I have always been scared to try and doing fine with stocks+options). The world reserve currencies all have had their day in the sun - from Greece to UK, they all came and went. Bitcoin is on a tear right now, and I have no problem with people trying to basically day trade or swing trade that BTC run. To convince oneself that crypto is legitimately valuable in and of its own right just because it is rising in value is foolhardy, though. If you are chasing a buck, chase a buck... don't try to tell people about fundamentals that don't exist, lol. The institutions aren't doing that; they simply see something on its way up, buy some, then talk it up so other buyers follow (just as they do with stocks). It might hit 100k, or it might crash as it did a couple years ago... it all depends on more buyers coming in. It's greater fool theory 101.

Bitcoin trades more like a startup company (Nasdaq) than a currency (FOREX market). I would assume that's because Bitcoin was created and supply controlled by individuals and not a sovereign nation. USD or other failed past world reserve currencies (pound sterling, francs, etc etc) had value for a fairly long timespan due to their nation's military might to acquire/protect assets and their ability to tax their people's productivity (GDP). It was simply assumed they were responsible with the currency supply... and they invariably were not. As soon as they overprinted or the military flounders, all bets are off. Will Chinese yuan be next if US crumbles from within during our lifetime? Who knows?

...Gold is the undefeated, undisputed all-time champ, though. It has survived and thrived through literally thousands of human-created currencies (commodities, coinage, paper notes... now digital). The funny thing is that gold isn't even really trying to be money... it is just the best suited thing for the role (since humans can't control its supply... as they tried to with all the failed "money" of the past).

You win the day, sir. Bitcoin is hard money. Hilarious stuff!
Be sure not to check back in 5 or 25 or 500 years, though.

“money” is essentially the most tradable thing. Because barter is inefficient. So the free market developed “money”

gold and other “monetary metals” became money because they satisfied the properties of money well (divisible, durable, recognizable, portable) and of the monetary metals gold is the most scarce. That’s basically it. Gold is the analog version of proof of work. It’s difficult to acquire turn into usable money

bitcoin satisfies the properties of money better than gold, and it has the advantage of a fixed supply and a known inflation rate which trends to zero. It is better harder “money”. It’s digital proof of work.

I think you shouldn’t be a hater. Open your mind. Everyone capitulates in the end.

[Panscan]

Yes, precisely. ^^^

Just like status of people or person(s) is an illusion, so is money. We are all apes wearing cloth. "Money" is all paper from a printer (or maybe numbers on a computer now). We can debate how much "value" a collector coin has, what an old baseball card should go for, or how much "prestige" an athlete or celebrity has until we're blue in the face. All that matters is the price they can command at the time of sale/hire/trade/etc.

Money is "worth" whatever people will value it as. That is how FOREX can be so lucrative to those who know it (I have always been scared to try and doing fine with stocks+options). The world reserve currencies all have had their day in the sun - from Greece to UK, they all came and went. Bitcoin is on a tear right now, and I have no problem with people trying to basically day trade or swing trade that BTC run. To convince oneself that crypto is legitimately valuable in and of its own right just because it is rising in value is foolhardy, though. If you are chasing a buck, chase a buck... don't try to tell people about fundamentals that don't exist, lol. The institutions aren't doing that; they simply see something on its way up, buy some, then talk it up so other buyers follow (just as they do with stocks). It might hit 100k, or it might crash as it did a couple years ago... it all depends on more buyers coming in. It's greater fool theory 101.

Bitcoin trades more like a startup company (Nasdaq) than a currency (FOREX market). I would assume that's because Bitcoin was created and supply controlled by individuals and not a sovereign nation. USD or other failed past world reserve currencies (pound sterling, francs, etc etc) had value for a fairly long timespan due to their nation's military might to acquire/protect assets and their ability to tax their people's productivity (GDP). It was simply assumed they were responsible with the currency supply... and they invariably were not. As soon as they overprinted or the military flounders, all bets are off. Will Chinese yuan be next if US crumbles from within during our lifetime? Who knows?

...Gold is the undefeated, undisputed all-time champ, though. It has survived and thrived through literally thousands of human-created currencies (commodities, coinage, paper notes... now digital). The funny thing is that gold isn't even really trying to be money... it is just the best suited thing for the role (since humans can't control its supply... as they tried to with all the failed "money" of the past).

You win the day, sir. Bitcoin is hard money. Hilarious stuff!
Be sure not to check back in 5 or 25 or 500 years, though.

the us dollar is a bit over 200 years old. so if you use 500 years as your cycle then the dollar hasn't reached it yet either

[jacoavlu]

the us dollar is a bit over 200 years old. so if you use 500 years as your cycle then the dollar hasn't reached it yet either

the dollar is not what it used to be. Not after 1971

[FreshPaint]

You win the day, sir. Bitcoin is hard money. Hilarious stuff!
Be sure not to check back in 5 or 25 or 500 years, though.

Do you think the USD is going to have much value in 500 years

[chucki]

Money is not gold, paper, or data -- its value is based on trust in the system. This is why bitcoin has and will flourish.

[Brains428]

Figured I'd bump this. Fed isn't looking at tightening, India walked back a crypto ban, so BTC is on the way back up. I doubt the stimulus checks will effect the price much.