Bitcoin is still early

[xraygoggles]

Man prices really jumped back up last couple of days. Gonna be back at ATH soon

Not gonna lie, I'm getting sorta antsy now that all the bubbles have popped: SPACs, cannabis, Tesla/EV, Nasdaq/tech/growth... I wonder if NFTs and shitcoins will follow suit... It's entirely possible this whole market paradigm shift results in one of those epic Bitcoin corrections, in which case it may be a good buying opportunity....

[jacoavlu]

Not gonna lie, I'm getting sorta antsy now that all the bubbles have popped: SPACs, cannabis, Tesla/EV, Nasdaq/tech/growth... I wonder if NFTs and shitcoins will follow suit... It's entirely possible this whole market paradigm shift results in one of those epic Bitcoin corrections, in which case it may be a good buying opportunity....

your definition of bubbles popped is clearly different than mine

zoom out

[chucki]

Not my post, but I really feel the following is true. There were/are a lot of anti-Bitcoiners on this forum, as seen in this thread (especially near the beginning). Is this accurate?


"Worse, every time it hits another all time high, they want it to fail even more.

The higher it goes the more the deniers get caught between a rock and a hard place, where they both a) believe it's a giant speculative bubble that's going to pop and go to zero any day now and b) get increasingly nervous that maybe it's not going away they missed out and might actually need to buy some.

Believing b) makes them think, maybe they should buy a little in case they're wrong and missing something big, but believing a) makes them super nervous that if they buy in now, they'll be the sucker who buys at the top and gets left holding the bag.

Increasingly frantic anger is the result of this cognitive dissonance."

[Nysoz]

I still don’t fully buy into the idea, but understand it. I’m slowly allocating 1% of my net worth to btc/eth as schmuck insurance. As volatile as it is, I move things into BlockFi to get interest while crypto gets sorted out.

[Dont_know_mind]

Not my post, but I really feel the following is true. There were/are a lot of anti-Bitcoiners on this forum, as seen in this thread (especially near the beginning). Is this accurate?


"Worse, every time it hits another all time high, they want it to fail even more.

The higher it goes the more the deniers get caught between a rock and a hard place, where they both a) believe it's a giant speculative bubble that's going to pop and go to zero any day now and b) get increasingly nervous that maybe it's not going away they missed out and might actually need to buy some.

Believing b) makes them think, maybe they should buy a little in case they're wrong and missing something big, but believing a) makes them super nervous that if they buy in now, they'll be the sucker who buys at the top and gets left holding the bag.

Increasingly frantic anger is the result of this cognitive dissonance."

Yeah sure this could be true.
It could also be used as an argument to promote anything that has done well.

I think if you are going to FOMO, one should do it earlier.

Robert Schiller has called Bitcoin a bubble from at least 2017. Buffet and Munger have said it will end nastily. Jack Bogle (*) even said stay away from it. On the other side you have the Bitcoin promoters.

I guess everyone has to make their own decisions.

(*) RIP, I’m reading his book clash of culture currently. A great book.

[Panscan]

schiller said indexing is dumb and ruining the economy.

I guess I don't know why people look to people like buffet, munger and bogle for this. I can obviously appreciate their immense success but do I think a bunch of 90 year old guys who are from a different era are going to be able to properly assess crypto? Is it surprising they don't get it?

I'm a cynic(as I'm sure everyone can realize) so I typically believe new buzzing stuff in the market is overhyped by default but the more I look into it and look at the trajectory of people getting behind crypto, I just don't see how you couldn't be at least interested.

The problem is if you say something is a bubble and then continually double down on it, it will go down at some point. That doesn't mean you were right or had any idea what you were talking about. No one ever checks the bubble boys after the fact. Also a lot of these guys publicly claim something and then privately they actually own some.

I think the possibility of bitcoin going to zero is essentially zero and continues to decrease as more companies put their treasury reserves in it, more people tie up retirement money in it via ETFs, etc. At some point you have a critical mass of people with a vested interest and it's simply not possible for the thing to truly zero out unless there is significant regulatory change. Could it go to 10k? Sure. Again, I think unlikely.

[Panscan]

If you called it a bubble in 2017 it's at least 3-4x since then if you said that at the end of 2017 or 50x if you said that at the beginning of 2017. That is a pretty stretchy bubble. At some point they're just wrong. If it collapses 50% it's still around 2x from the highest they could have seen it at that prediction.

[jacoavlu]

schiller said indexing is dumb and ruining the economy.

I guess I don't know why people look to people like buffet, munger and bogle for this. I can obviously appreciate their immense success but do I think a bunch of 90 year old guys who are from a different era are going to be able to properly assess crypto? Is it surprising they don't get it?

I'm a cynic(as I'm sure everyone can realize) so I typically believe new buzzing stuff in the market is overhyped by default but the more I look into it and look at the trajectory of people getting behind crypto, I just don't see how you couldn't be at least interested.

The problem is if you say something is a bubble and then continually double down on it, it will go down at some point. That doesn't mean you were right or had any idea what you were talking about. No one ever checks the bubble boys after the fact. Also a lot of these guys publicly claim something and then privately they actually own some.

I think the possibility of bitcoin going to zero is essentially zero and continues to decrease as more companies put their treasury reserves in it, more people tie up retirement money in it via ETFs, etc. At some point you have a critical mass of people with a vested interest and it's simply not possible for the thing to truly zero out unless there is significant regulatory change. Could it go to 10k? Sure. Again, I think unlikely.

you seem to use “crypto” and “bitcoin” interchangeably. I would be careful of that mindset

[jacoavlu]

I think if you are going to FOMO, one should do it earlier.

lol great advice

[Panscan]

you seem to use “crypto” and “bitcoin” interchangeably. I would be careful of that mindset

I guess. I think they're pretty interchangeable. I think there's BTC and ETH and then everyone else basically. I haven't seen much divergence between BTC and the other top market cap cryptos. Sometimes there is divergence with BTC and the tiny cap ones. If we're talking about new ones that are like 2 cents each and obviously high risk of failing like a penny stock, sure. I think generally the things that are good for crypto are good for BTC and vice versa. Maybe as the market matures and people understand it better people will get more picky about certain coins, I don't think we are seeing that now.

[chucki]

you seem to use “crypto” and “bitcoin” interchangeably. I would be careful of that mindset

This. BTC versus alts is akin to AAPL vs speculative and even penny stocks or gold vs cubic zirconia (in some cases).

[billy]

Not my post, but I really feel the following is true. There were/are a lot of anti-Bitcoiners on this forum, as seen in this thread (especially near the beginning). Is this accurate?


"Worse, every time it hits another all time high, they want it to fail even more.

The higher it goes the more the deniers get caught between a rock and a hard place, where they both a) believe it's a giant speculative bubble that's going to pop and go to zero any day now and b) get increasingly nervous that maybe it's not going away they missed out and might actually need to buy some.

Believing b) makes them think, maybe they should buy a little in case they're wrong and missing something big, but believing a) makes them super nervous that if they buy in now, they'll be the sucker who buys at the top and gets left holding the bag.

Increasingly frantic anger is the result of this cognitive dissonance."

Im a skeptic. dammit you dragged me back in after I said I'll sit this discussion out. But, you can be skeptical yet still want others to succeed. That's where I stand. Not a "ha, see I told you so" bubble believer, but a "i cant see (despite all the reading yada yada) how this is guaranteed to only go up as every dr, fb person, mailman, etc have said" type of BTC 'nonbeliever' person. I still believe a lot of BTC price is speculative, but I sincerely hope you all make a ton of money off it- its just not the game for me. So I dont get the part B comment- I couldnt care less what BTC does, just like I dont care if AMZN went to a billion or not- I'm still not buying one specific stock.

[Panscan]

This. BTC versus alts is akin to AAPL vs speculative and even penny stocks or gold vs cubic zirconia (in some cases).

BTC is the majority of the market cap of crypto. I never advocated for an equal weighted crypto allocation or for people to buy random penny altcoins. There are degrees of viability to alts, like I wouldn't really consider ETH which has a 200 billion dollar market cap to be similar to the one made yesterday in some guys basement worth 1/10th of a penny. Sure it's still an "altcoin" by definition but to me that's an increasingly silly term. Is microsoft alt-computers because they aren't apple? At some point you give up that moniker. When a thing has a market cap of 200 billion, idk it's probably not a "shitcoin" anymore. Bitcoin had a market cap less than that, what like a year ago?

[jacoavlu]

BTC is the majority of the market cap of crypto. I never advocated for an equal weighted crypto allocation or for people to buy random penny altcoins. There are degrees of viability to alts, like I wouldn't really consider ETH which has a 200 billion dollar market cap to be similar to the one made yesterday in some guys basement worth 1/10th of a penny. Sure it's still an "altcoin" by definition but to me that's an increasingly silly term. Is microsoft alt-computers because they aren't apple? At some point you give up that moniker. When a thing has a market cap of 200 billion, idk it's probably not a "shitcoin" anymore. Bitcoin had a market cap less than that, what like a year ago?

the comment was "crypto" vs "bitcoin"

I wouldn't equate "crypto" with "ethereum" either

hip young kids like ETH, I get it. Would be better to start an ETH thread so as not to derail this discussion

[G]

Im a skeptic. dammit you dragged me back in after I said I'll sit this discussion out. But, you can be skeptical yet still want others to succeed. That's where I stand. Not a "ha, see I told you so" bubble believer, but a "i cant see (despite all the reading yada yada) how this is guaranteed to only go up as every dr, fb person, mailman, etc have said" type of BTC 'nonbeliever' person. I still believe a lot of BTC price is speculative, but I sincerely hope you all make a ton of money off it- its just not the game for me. So I dont get the part B comment- I couldnt care less what BTC does, just like I dont care if AMZN went to a billion or not- I'm still not buying one specific stock.

bingo. I am intrigued by the passion on both sides, but ultimately...I just don't care.

I did buy a penny ante amount of GBTC [I know, I know] for giggles, primarily as a yardstick for discussion purposes in the future. If it gets a 10x in the next few years, I plan to buy a Balvenie 50yo and continue barely working...if it goes to zero and the rest of my portfolio performs, I plan to buy a Balvenie 50yo and continue to barely work.