Bitcoin is still early

[Panscan]

You act like it is easy to figure out who a wallet belongs to and trace transactions when bitcoin mixing exists. Try to imagine tracking down your stolen funds when it goes in to an anonymous untacked pool of funds that gets thrown to multiple addresses and then sent back out to new ones with no logs. Geez seems so stupid to do that when you could just have them wire you cash right?

Why else would these ransomware attacks demand bitcoin for payment?

There is a record though, which obviously is greater than the records for cash. We're talking about governments abilities to track people down, not one guy with their raspberry pi. I'm not going after money laundering as an average joe. If you make the argument that BTC is good for crime then I'm not sure why you also wouldn't be arguing for us to get rid of physical cash and move to digital payment systems for everything.

[Tim]

History has a tendency to begin in the year of birth or personal experience. The bias is that personal experience equates to knowledge.

Moore's Law was developed in 1965. That was based upon experience. You might have heard of his company, Intel, processors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

Technology goes back a lot farther than most folks have experienced.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnet...e_data_storage (tape is dead).
Storage technology gives you a path. Tape was the original, started in 1952.
I point this out because of the impact of compounding.

Supercomputers are simply a class of computers. How to extrapolate the innovation in BTC I have no idea. Double the technology every five years?
I have no idea, it is possible. I don't have a clue when disc drives or memory cards will die. They will eventually.

[Chessknt]

There is a record though, which obviously is greater than the records for cash. We're talking about governments abilities to track people down, not one guy with their raspberry pi. I'm not going after money laundering as an average joe. If you make the argument that BTC is good for crime then I'm not sure why you also wouldn't be arguing for us to get rid of physical cash and move to digital payment systems for everything.

It took me a few seconds to find this site https://blenderbit.com. One of their advertising points--no logs. What record can the feds follow if everything is lumped together in a huge transaction then doles back out to random addresses? It is impossible to find.....

And I agree moving to a stable digital USD/yuan etc would be great for crime prevention but not to BTC as one world currency.

[xraygoggles]

History has a tendency to begin in the year of birth or personal experience. The bias is that personal experience equates to knowledge.

Moore's Law was developed in 1965. That was based upon experience. You might have heard of his company, Intel, processors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

Technology goes back a lot farther than most folks have experienced.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnet...e_data_storage (tape is dead).
Storage technology gives you a path. Tape was the original, started in 1952.
I point this out because of the impact of compounding.

Supercomputers are simply a class of computers. How to extrapolate the innovation in BTC I have no idea. Double the technology every five years?
I have no idea, it is possible. I don't have a clue when disc drives or memory cards will die. They will eventually.

The one looming computing aspect that could be the 500 lb gorilla in the room is the rise of quantum computing, which will be able to factorize immensely large numbers into their primes in a hearbeat. This is what kinda makes cryptography work (for now).

If a sufficiently large qubit computer was created, it would be able to reverse the hash functions, and therefore "crack the code", rendering all cryptocurrencies essentially worthless. From little I've read on this topic, it seems unlikely to happen, but I'm not sure the exact reasons why at the moment.

[jacoavlu]

scarcity is one thing, but where do you draw the line?

What if elon made 10 unique digital paintings/memes. Will there be a market for that?

lol not Elon, but his wife

https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2021/3/1/22308075/grimes-nft-6-million-sales-nifty-gateway-warnymph

[formerly_cn]

The one looming computing aspect that could be the 500 lb gorilla in the room is the rise of quantum computing, which will be able to factorize immensely large numbers into their primes in a hearbeat. This is what kinda makes cryptography work (for now).

If a sufficiently large qubit computer was created, it would be able to reverse the hash functions, and therefore "crack the code", rendering all cryptocurrencies essentially worthless. From little I've read on this topic, it seems unlikely to happen, but I'm not sure the exact reasons why at the moment.

Sorry but reversing hash function is a calculation SO LARGE that if you call it astronomical it wouldn't be enough. At least my readings have revealed this to be impossible even with qubit quantum computing (which incidentally is still at a very early from any sort of practical code cracking). If quantum computing does solve it; it is essentially solving the P=NP problem. Lol, that is a long standing math problem that if solved, you can kiss any sort of security protocol obsolete. You can imagine any sort of doomsday scenario at that point.

[xraygoggles]

Sorry but reversing hash function is a calculation SO LARGE that if you call it astronomical it wouldn't be enough. At least my readings have revealed this to be impossible even with qubit quantum computing (which incidentally is still at a very early from any sort of practical code cracking). If quantum computing does solve it; it is essentially solving the P=NP problem. Lol, that is a long standing math problem that if solved, you can kiss any sort of security protocol obsolete. You can imagine any sort of doomsday scenario at that point.

Yeah, that's the sense I got too reading some articles, but I'm sure there's a lot more to it than that, and I'm not familiar with the technical aspects of this field.

[Dont_know_mind]

This is my first post on BTC. I have been subjected to a lot of pro btc argumentation and blockchain education by a close friend. At this point 0.5% of my portfolio is in btc, expecting to go up to 2%.
I would love to regard it as an alternative store of wealth which is headed toward becoming a legitimate reserve currency. I can’t get there yet, but I can’t dismiss its potential to become that. I just don’t think there’s enough information currently to know how to think about it, and there are competing risks and upsides making it a volatile speculative choice at this point. But I wouldn’t argue with someone that this may be a risk worth taking like any other speculation, ie do it with a small amount of money, money you can afford to lose. As I am doing. It’s buy and hold for me.
For me the pros are increasing mainstream adoption, instability in the politics, banking sectors and currencies in many countries not in the more developed world, digital/global, and safety due to blockchain. Uncertainties/potential problems include lack of deposit insurance in the vein of fdic insurance (although maybe countered by inherently greater safety of the technology), volatility, unpredictability, possible future collective governmental action to limit, possible future creation of alternative mainstream digital currency, and question of future encryption problems arising from quantum computing. And I can’t completely rule out Ponzi scheme, but my intuition is that it is not. But when you have to use your intuition to figure out how to regard a financial instrument, I think you are still in the realm of speculation. I suspect over time it will become less volatile but we shall see.

I hope you are not offended by this, but feel I should call you up on this, as I have made a similar error in the past with exceeding my risk tolerance, overallocating to cash/fixed interest and this leading to bad investments.

I recall you said you increased your bond allocation as a permanent change to AA last year. But now are adding 0.5-2% BTC for speculative risk ?

This sounds like a potential behavioural error to me. I tend to think for those who market-timed incorrectly with Covid, being stuck at home for months with kids, particularly if they are BTC advocates gives you an easy way out of the market timing error.

However, you risk going from one error to another. The initial error may have been changing your AA with covid and then finding you have too much cash/fixed interest a year down the road. Then somehow, this can lead you to buying BTC.

I think it is important to look at your investment plan. Did it ever say invest in 2% in BTC prior to retirement ? Maybe it is the right thing to do or maybe an initial mistake leads to further.

[Panscan]

Why can’t your retirement plan change ? If a year is too soon to make a change then how long should one wait ?

[Panscan]

Recent changes bullish for Eth, no?

[jacoavlu]

Recent changes

huh?

[Panscan]

Maybe not changes but developments. 1559 getting closer, etfs

[jacoavlu]

Maybe not changes but developments. 1559 getting closer, etfs

seems like this is always how it is with eth

https://twitter.com/MartyBent/status/1367865547652743175

[Panscan]

seems like this is always how it is with eth

https://twitter.com/MartyBent/status...65547652743175

Don’t you hate on my shitcoin !

[Panscan]

Man prices really jumped back up last couple of days. Gonna be back at ATH soon