Bitcoin is still early

[NapoleanDynamite]

I bought (bet?) a few thousand dollars of GBTC last Friday. New world record for worst timing.

FOMO got the better of me. Will just hold of course.

Sorry FLP....I confused you in my memory with NationalPark. So substitute NationalPark for FLP in my entire previous post.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Would you buy it at 40K,30K, 20K, and 10K?

How much dip would people tolerate?

Impossible to answer this question as one cannot specify all of the variables in the world that would cause this 85% crash. But if it crashed to 10K at this point, I would still have a positive return (albeit measly) on my 6 figure initial investment. This assumes I sell nothing on the way down. Is it possible? Yes. Is this likely? Nope.

My investment is measly compared to many. Do you think most of these people will sell out quickly on a dip? I don't. Do these investors need the money to survive any time soon? Nope. Do people like myself need the money to survive? Nope. So why invest? Asymmetric risk/reward.

If you really think about the concept described above, you would understand why the scarcity of BTC is driving the price significantly up right now. It will be even more scarce going forward. If it ever gains adoption as a currency (I'm not saying it will), then it will be the most scarce, yet also the most portable currency the planet has ever known. Even if it never gains adoption as a currency, it is still the best store of value that this planet has ever seen.

[Lordosis]

This is no different than S&P or the dow or whatever. I don't think bitcoin is going to collapse and with an ETF on the horizon plus ever increasing institutional money it seems hard to believe it's not going to hit new highs at some point.

Would def still buy at 10k

If you believe in it and what blockchain in general does/accomplishes, I don't see how you would approach it any other way.

It very well may continue to new highs. But I do think it is very different then the S&P. Maybe my faith is misplaced but I would expect the US economy to come back after an 80% decline. I would not expect Bitcoin to do that just like I would not expect gold or any single Stock/Company.

[Panscan]

Yes this is more volatile but my point is if you fundamentally believe something will increase in value long term then there's essentially no short term drop that could dissuade you from it. I don't think its possible for it to get close to 0 or hit 0 at this point. There's just too many institutions involved. Honestly it would be more scary IMO if it skyrocketed tomorrow, like if it hits 200k tomorrow, I would likely cash out a good bit and re-evaluate.

[xraygoggles]

Maybe my faith is misplaced but I would expect the US economy to come back after an 80% decline. I would not expect Bitcoin to do that just like I would not expect gold or any single Stock/Company.

Well, in the 2017 bubble where it topped right at 20k or so, it then dropped 80%. It's currently at 48.3k.

[chucki]

BTC has dropped over 80% three times and only come back stronger. Fun fact: even after the past 2 days correction, if one had invested in btc at the start of this thread a few months ago, they would be up 3.5x.

[Nysoz]

It really depends on the reason behind any particular drop. Index funds would be fine by the definition of diversification. With single companies it really matters why they dropped 80% and their plan going forward. If the company has a great plan and good clear path to get back out of the hole or do even better, then it'll return to normal or do even better as we saw with many companies after the covid crash.

BTC would be different with why it dropped so much. Is there a better coin for transactions or store of value? Did governments completely ban its worth somehow? Is there some new fundamental flaw of the decentralization or whatever else? Then it wouldn't likely come back.

It's an interesting question. To me, BTC doesn't provide anything and its value is what the next person decides what they would pay for it. Since it has first mover advantage and a limited supply, it's currently winning as digital gold. If some huge holder somehow decides/declares it's not worth anything anymore because there's now a new better store of value say 'gold coin' or something that's similar but better in some/all metrics, what then happens? Say they sell all their BTC to buy into 'gold coin' and convince their other big BTC whales it's the new hip better thing and they jump ship too. Would BTC now become worthless or would there be 2 different stores of value split between these 2.

[NapoleanDynamite]

It really depends on the reason behind any particular drop. Index funds would be fine by the definition of diversification. With single companies it really matters why they dropped 80% and their plan going forward. If the company has a great plan and good clear path to get back out of the hole or do even better, then it'll return to normal or do even better as we saw with many companies after the covid crash.

BTC would be different with why it dropped so much. Is there a better coin for transactions or store of value? Did governments completely ban its worth somehow? Is there some new fundamental flaw of the decentralization or whatever else? Then it wouldn't likely come back.

It's an interesting question. To me, BTC doesn't provide anything and its value is what the next person decides what they would pay for it. Since it has first mover advantage and a limited supply, it's currently winning as digital gold. If some huge holder somehow decides/declares it's not worth anything anymore because there's now a new better store of value say 'gold coin' or something that's similar but better in some/all metrics, what then happens? Say they sell all their BTC to buy into 'gold coin' and convince their other big BTC whales it's the new hip better thing and they jump ship too. Would BTC now become worthless or would there be 2 different stores of value split between these 2.

This has already happened. The "fork wars" happened between 2016-2018. Bitcoin is/has been the winner. That's why this cycle is likely to further BTC's dominance.

[Nysoz]

When you’re the champ there will always be a contender. Not saying it’ll ever be dethroned but it’s a possibility no matter how remote that possibility is

[Panscan]

Sure def possible, I think improbable .

[Panscan]

Square announces they bought 170M, 5% of cash reserve

[xraygoggles]

Square announces they bought 170M, 5% of cash reserve

Rumor is Twitter is going to buy some as well. Jack owns both companies after all, not so surprising.

[Jantoven]

Square announces they bought 170M, 5% of cash reserve

I think they bought around the 51k level of so. It will be interesting to see is we soon see some of the other leaders in tech (Apple, Amazon, etc) announce their plan to buy.

I think I remember seeing some Amazon project where they are looking to accept payments in bitcoin and working in the project currently.

[jacoavlu]

ok so when is this thread getting renamed back to “Bitcoin is still early” ?

it was a perfect title, all credit to NapoleanDynamite

[Tim]

Has anyone ever "spent" bitcoin? Or is it too early?