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  • #61
    Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post
    is it possible to buy without significant fees / commissions?
    Swan Bitcoin probably has the lowest fees of any exchnage. Coinbase is the easiest to use, but the fees are the highest. I have no financial interest in any exchange.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
      Bitcoin almost at 17k. Hasn't been this high since the last bubble. I'm curious to see whether it can surpass 20k...
      The question is not "whether" but "when and how quickly?" When it surpasses 20k people will start talking about it more and talking bubble (All Time Highs), and when it surpasses 100K people will still be talking bubble...they will still be wrong.

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      • #63
        Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post

        The question is not "whether" but "when and how quickly?" When it surpasses 20k people will start talking about it more and talking bubble (All Time Highs), and when it surpasses 100K people will still be talking bubble...they will still be wrong.
        Call the top.

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        • #64

          “For guidance on this thinking, I would recommend turning to the Venezuelan economist Carlota Perez, who has done important work on the intersection of financial markets and technology markets. Specifically, she shows that many technological innovations have associated stock market booms. These booms draw in capital. The hard work of integrating the technology happens after the boom busts.

          If the blockchain proves to be a general purpose technology (GPT), the current price vicissitudes may not only be ok, they may be the precursor of a technology that may become embedded in the economy.”

          At its core, value investing is buying something for less than what it’s worth. The present value of future free cash flow determines value. The key is that sometimes the market’s expectations for future free cash flow is too optimistic or pessimistic.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

            Call the top.
            That's humorous. I am not Nostradamus.

            But I see Bitcoin's value in the 6 figure range in the next 1-5 years and the 7 figure range in the next 1-10 year range. When these things occur and what is the "top" I would not attempt to predict in any more specific manner. I will say that the "top" may not be for many years or decades. There will likely be "tops" and significant volatility along the way, although I think the volatility (on a percentage basis) will be less than the last 10 years. I expect some significant volatility over the next 12 months.
            Also it's fine to keep making fun of me. Time will be the ultimate judge. Right now is a good time for me. At some point there will be a 10%, 20%, or 60% drop and you will be making fun of me...but if that drop is from 100K to 40K, then it's likely I'm still doing all right.

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            • #66
              Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post

              That's humorous. I am not Nostradamus.

              But I see Bitcoin's value in the 6 figure range in the next 1-5 years and the 7 figure range in the next 1-10 year range. When these things occur and what is the "top" I would not attempt to predict in any more specific manner. I will say that the "top" may not be for many years or decades. There will likely be "tops" and significant volatility along the way, although I think the volatility (on a percentage basis) will be less than the last 10 years. I expect some significant volatility over the next 12 months.
              Also it's fine to keep making fun of me. Time will be the ultimate judge. Right now is a good time for me. At some point there will be a 10%, 20%, or 60% drop and you will be making fun of me...but if that drop is from 100K to 40K, then it's likely I'm still doing all right.
              So there is no price at which you would think it would be a bubble? It could go up to $1M in the next year (within the range you've given) and you'll still think there's $1M of intrinsic value there and it isn't a bubble? I'm not here to make fun of people with speculative investments. I honestly hope it works out for you. Whether it goes to $1M or $0 it will have no bearing on my investments. It just isn't for me but that doesn't mean there aren't people out there that fancy that kind of thing. Kind of like bologna but in reverse because bologna is definitely for me.

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              • #67
                Originally posted by Brains428 View Post
                NapoleanDynamite I hope you managed to read her article on the differences between 2008 and 2020 stimulus. I saved it to post it here, but the file size is too large.
                Can you not post the link?
                Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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                • #68
                  I found the link directly on her site (I originally read it on seeking alpha, and it's on the premium subscription now).

                  Published November 2020 Lately, it has become fashionable to debate what is, or is not, “money-printing” by central banks. This debate is natural, due to the extreme policy nature of 2020, with massive fiscal expenditures, huge increases in central bank balance sheets, and changes in central bank inflation targets. It’s important to know what is […]


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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post
                    I'm sorry for your perspective on this as it is unlikely to hold up well with time. Never stop learning. Good luck my friend.
                    Lol... I am sure something that produces nothing, unknown origin, no control of supply, forks or spins off new coins whenever creators decide, no real purpose, no widespread acceptance/adoption will do fan-tiggidy-tastic over time. Riiight.

                    The BTC sharks have already swam in and attacked the fools once, and they will circle back around. Kudos to you and other pumpers for rebuilding the hype train... a true lesson in folks' eagerness in selling and buying get-rich-quick hopes and dreams. I would hope the next selloff crash will be the one where they definitively learn the lasting lesson that you don't get something for nothing?

                    "Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each.

                    The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them. The man bought hundreds of monkeys at $10. As monkeys started to become scarce, the villagers stopped their efforts.

                    He further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the villagers' efforts, and they began catching monkeys again. Soon, the supply diminished even further, and people went back to their farms.

                    The offer was increased to $25 each, and supply of monkeys became so low that it was rare to even see a monkey, let alone catch one.

                    The man announced that he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on business, his assistant could pay on his behalf for any monkeys caught.

                    While the man was away, the assistant told the villagers; 'Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected from you. I will sell them to you at $35, and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each.'

                    The villagers rounded up their savings and bought all the monkeys back. Then, they never saw the man nor his assistant again, and once again, there were monkeys everywhere."

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                    • #70
                      Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                      So there is no price at which you would think it would be a bubble? It could go up to $1M in the next year (within the range you've given) and you'll still think there's $1M of intrinsic value there and it isn't a bubble? I'm not here to make fun of people with speculative investments. I honestly hope it works out for you. Whether it goes to $1M or $0 it will have no bearing on my investments. It just isn't for me but that doesn't mean there aren't people out there that fancy that kind of thing. Kind of like bologna but in reverse because bologna is definitely for me.
                      This seems like a discussion I would have with my wife where I say one thing and she twists my words into a different question. Do I think there is intrinsic value at 1M? Yes. If the value mooned to 1M in 2 months would I likely sell some off as I would expect a re-set in price? Likely also yes. Do I think it is likely that the price will be 1M in 2 months? No. Very very unlikely. Now, if it is 100k in 6 months I may or may not be rebalancing some. It will entirely depend on the reasons for the 100k. I do believe it has a long way to go.

                      As for your bologna metaphor, I don’t think it is a good one. You say “it just isn’t for me” and that “you are not here to make fun of people for speculative investments”. I would argue your mindset is off base. Would you call the S\P a “speculative investment?” Would you call a rental house a speculative investment? What about Bonds? And Gold? And Cash? What about Vanguard Small Caps? And Large Caps? What about the nasdaq? Technically every investment is speculative so I guess you got me on that one.

                      However, priced in Bitcoin, every one of these speculative investments is down this year. If investing just isn’t for you, then I understand. But I suspect that is not the case since you are on an investing website. We all take calculated risks with every investment we make. None are guaranteed to pay off. At this point in time, Bitcoin appears to be the best investment risk to take and one everyone should be considering as part of their asset allocation.

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post

                        This seems like a discussion I would have with my wife where I say one thing and she twists my words into a different question. Do I think there is intrinsic value at 1M? Yes. If the value mooned to 1M in 2 months would I likely sell some off as I would expect a re-set in price? Likely also yes. Do I think it is likely that the price will be 1M in 2 months? No. Very very unlikely. Now, if it is 100k in 6 months I may or may not be rebalancing some. It will entirely depend on the reasons for the 100k. I do believe it has a long way to go.

                        As for your bologna metaphor, I don’t think it is a good one. You say “it just isn’t for me” and that “you are not here to make fun of people for speculative investments”. I would argue your mindset is off base. Would you call the S\P a “speculative investment?” Would you call a rental house a speculative investment? What about Bonds? And Gold? And Cash? What about Vanguard Small Caps? And Large Caps? What about the nasdaq? Technically every investment is speculative so I guess you got me on that one.

                        However, priced in Bitcoin, every one of these speculative investments is down this year. If investing just isn’t for you, then I understand. But I suspect that is not the case since you are on an investing website. We all take calculated risks with every investment we make. None are guaranteed to pay off. At this point in time, Bitcoin appears to be the best investment risk to take and one everyone should be considering as part of their asset allocation.
                        I think our biggest difference is that I can show you intrinsic value associated with everything you listed off. I have yet to have someone show me the current intrinsic value with Bitcoin. The whole point of an investment is that the underlying intrinsic value becomes more valuable. I'm also curious how you calculated that Bitcoin appears to be the best investment risk to take. I don't think a lot of people in the investing world agree with that.

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post
                          However, priced in Bitcoin, every one of these speculative investments is down this year.
                          What do you mean by this?

                          My NW has increased YTD in USD, but if I ran the calculation in BTC I've lost money?

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                          • #73
                            Also just curious, have you ever paid for an item with BTC?

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                            • #74
                              18k wow this feels like the old days when the bubble first peaked. at this rate it will cross 20k. i might have to sell some

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                              • #75
                                I’m too lazy to read all 72 replies has anyone said why bitcoin is good other than the fact that it will go up in price?

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