Bitcoin is still early

[Tim]

Tether, that is what you need to watch!

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jofi.12903

Couple academic papers that had about four market manipulations identified. But who cares, as long as you don't get burnt.

[xraygoggles]

I disagree...

If one allocates 1% of their portfolio to something that then goes 10X in 1 year and the other 99% to the S/P which makes 7% on the year, you increase your return from 7% to 15%. Obviously a huge difference. Compound at 15%/year or compound at 7%/year... Now compare this to a total loss of Bitcoin all the way down to zero. Your yearly return is then 6% instead of 7% for one year. A very small difference. Play small and win big. Also, the 1% allocation at 10x return quickly becomes the majority of your portfolio. It is very possible that Bitcoin price will 10X over the next 12 months.

Let's play this game more fully....and use numbers that others might expect to be more "realistic". Lets hypothesize that Bitcoin goes 10x over the next 5 years instead of the next 1 year. With a 1% Bitcoin allocation, this is still taking your annual return over 5 years from 7% (indexed S/P) to almost 9%. On the down side, if Bitcoin loses 50% of its value over the next 5 years you have now taken your yearly return from 7% yearly to about 6.9% yearly. It is a fractional difference less.

This risk/return here is highly assymetric. To answer a prior question, I started my position with an allocation at 5% which I brought quickly to 7.5% and it is now over 10% from growth. At this point I am DCA-ing 15% of my retirement contributions monthly to BTC and my only anxiety is that I will regret not DCA-ing more. If you have the mentality that this is "gambling" or "betting" on Bitcoin, it is not. This is a very calculated risk that people should educate themselves on. All investments have risk.

Why do you think it might go 10x over the next 5 years? Can't it also go to $1?

I don't think either will happen, but just wanted to know your thought process. I'm long bitcoin (and some others).

[Nysoz]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SA_80nusQns

i watched this video. It’s Dave Lee (some investor person that’s been big on Tesla) and Anthony pompliano (some Bitcoin bull) talk about the pros and cons of Bitcoin and what it represents and such. Kinda informative but long.

still doesn’t sway me into investing in Bitcoin though. I think The only thing that would get me into Bitcoin is if it was universally accepted as the “digital gold” standard with everyone and therefore having value or a use. The problem is that is there’s so many coins and if one person/country/payment system refuses to accept Bitcoin as being valuable it loses that status.

[NapoleanDynamite]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SA_80nusQns

i watched this video. It’s Dave Lee (some investor person that’s been big on Tesla) and Anthony pompliano (some Bitcoin bull) talk about the pros and cons of Bitcoin and what it represents and such. Kinda informative but long.

still doesn’t sway me into investing in Bitcoin though. I think The only thing that would get me into Bitcoin is if it was universally accepted as the “digital gold” standard with everyone and therefore having value or a use. The problem is that is there’s so many coins and if one person/country/payment system refuses to accept Bitcoin as being valuable it loses that status.

Anthony Pompliano is another great resource to learn from. Listen to what Michael Saylor has to say about your concerns/problems with Bitcoin. A lot of valuable information that you are missing.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Why do you think it might go 10x over the next 5 years? Can't it also go to $1?

I don't think either will happen, but just wanted to know your thought process. I'm long bitcoin (and some others).

I actually don't think it will do 10x over the next 5 years. I think it will do 10x over the next 12-15 months. But I know most on this forum will think I am some crazy wack job in making a statement like that. And no, it will never go to $1. The argument could be made that it could go to $0 but not $1. I don't agree with that argument but I recognize that it can be made. Bitcoin will either go to 6 and then 7 digits or it will go to zero. There is no logical argument that it stays at 15K nor is there a logical argument for 1 dollar.

As to why I think it will 10x, the short answer is supply and demand. This is not a refined answer of course and not likely what you are looking for.

The demand part of the equation is easy. There are only about 18 million BTC available at this time. Of those only about 8 million are actually availabe as "float". Of course there is a derivatives market, but only 8 million Bitcoin actually move hands at any time. So the supply is very limited. This is pretty obvious.

The demand part of the equation is why I believe the bitcoin price will see a huge rise in price over the coming months/years. This part of the equation is so multi-factorial that it can't be discussed briefly with any level of depth. But here are some of the factors: 1. Inflation/money printing 2. Corporate treasuries using BTC as a store of value. As soon as any of the FAMANG companies start using BTC as part or all of their treasury reserve, almost all other companies will follow. Game theory. 3. Major hedge funds/investors starting to recognize BTC as an asset class and investing (See JP Morgan, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Bill Miller, Mike Novogratz, Cathie Wood, David Swenson). The institutional money that has just begun over the past 6-9 months will drive the price rapidly 4. A larger user base with easier access to it (See Paypal's 346 million users and Square) 5. A growing millennial population that understands technology and will not only use it but demand it 6. Portability across borders. 7. The positive feedback loop that will occur as price rises. People will be less likely to sell as price rises. 8. Taxes. In the US people are actually incentivized to buy and hold their bitcoin.

This list could go on and on...I just spit these out off the top of my head. BTC has so many tailwinds at this time it is very hard to see it not getting out of control. Time will tell. All I would suggest is to hold your Bitcoin....the price (in dollars) will likely go far higher than you could ever imagine over the next 10-20 years. Good luck!

[NapoleanDynamite]

As if on cue, Lyn Alden wrote up a great article today that would answer many of your questions. She is far more educated than me on macro economics. As she states in the article, she was never bullish on bitcoin until this year.

https://www.lynalden.com/misconceptions-about-bitcoin/

[Brains428]

NapoleanDynamite I came here to post that exact same article. She is one of my favorite people to read.

[NapoleanDynamite]

NapoleanDynamite I came here to post that exact same article. She is one of my favorite people to read.

I agree. She is highly logical, unemotional and intelligent. I hope a few others read the article.

[Brains428]

NapoleanDynamite I hope you managed to read her article on the differences between 2008 and 2020 stimulus. I saved it to post it here, but the file size is too large.

[Max Power]

Why do you [orig poster] care so much what I invest in?

Three words: greater fool theory.

...BTC hypers need to pimp it to entice buyers and keep price up. It has no real value, no control of its supply/creation, and it is "the answer" to a problem solved long ago. The only value of it is in that there will be future adopters and investors. Remember tech stock IPOs? There were seminars and folks giving out "insider tips" left and right... usually for ones they owned or were paid to promote.

If you want to bet on some digital money nerds overthrowing "the system" and getting themselves rich in the process, try Bitcoin.
If you want to bet on the guys with the guns and trust them blindly, buy stocks and bonds.
...If you know the guys with the guns will always win but you need to hedge all the inflation that they create, get stocks and buy/sell some gold also. Coincidentally, that is what they do themselves, and fake digital money has no role in it. Central banks buy gold when they don't want too much gold in the hands of speculators that buy it. Central banks sell gold when they don't want too much of their currency in the hands of speculators that sell it. Gold is the one thing you can't print, create in a lab, etc. Gold is basically a pile of money that can exchange for any world currency (doesn't matter if one currency fails or deflates... you can use it as any other one instead). Oh, and it naturally keeps up with inflation due to its controlled supply.

[Lordosis]

Yay crixus is back!

[NapoleanDynamite]

Three words: greater fool theory.

...BTC hypers need to pimp it to entice buyers and keep price up. It has no real value, no control of its supply/creation, and it is "the answer" to a problem solved long ago. The only value of it is in that there will be future adopters and investors. Remember tech stock IPOs? There were seminars and folks giving out "insider tips" left and right... usually for ones they owned or were paid to promote.

If you want to bet on some digital money nerds overthrowing "the system" and getting themselves rich in the process, try Bitcoin.
If you want to bet on the guys with the guns and trust them blindly, buy stocks and bonds.
...If you know the guys with the guns will always win but you need to hedge all the inflation that they create, get stocks and buy/sell some gold also. Coincidentally, that is what they do themselves, and fake digital money has no role in it. Central banks buy gold when they don't want too much gold in the hands of speculators that buy it. Central banks sell gold when they don't want too much of their currency in the hands of speculators that sell it. Gold is the one thing you can't print, create in a lab, etc. Gold is basically a pile of money that can exchange for any world currency (doesn't matter if one currency fails or deflates... you can use it as any other one instead). Oh, and it naturally keeps up with inflation due to its controlled supply.

I'm sorry for your perspective on this as it is unlikely to hold up well with time. Never stop learning. Good luck my friend.

[xraygoggles]

Bitcoin almost at 17k. Hasn't been this high since the last bubble. I'm curious to see whether it can surpass 20k...

[jacoavlu]

is it possible to buy without significant fees / commissions?

[jacoavlu]

that plays into skepticism - fair number of the people touting it's merits stand to gain from transactions