Bitcoin is still early

[Dont_know_mind]

I don’t understand most of what you’re talking about.

the linked article talking about Druckenmiller comments and “thinness” of bitcoin market seems to ignore or be unaware of the existence of OTC desks

https://primebroker.coinbase.com/con...y-Dec-2020.pdf

I liked the article due to the other Druckenmiller ideas. It does seem to underestimate liquidity in Bitcoin. It would be interesting to know what the total spot (OTC and exchange volume) Vs futures is for Bitcoin.

The inelastic or fixed short term supply characteristic of Bitcoin is not unique and many commodities have this feature.
The reason I think of the rehypothecation issue is that it has occurred in the past with subprime and also metals. Basically the collateral is used for further purchases of risk assets, also usually thought of as a hard asset (houses in subprime, metals in the Chinese rehypothecation episode in 2014).
You asked in another thread how stablecoin deposits can earn 9% pa. Maybe that is one way, I have no idea really, maybe they do it in some other less risky manner. But when something is good, it's almost irresistable for investment bankers to crank out more. Asset backed tokens appear to me to have potential for rehypothecation, so potentially are margin accounts on crypto and futures on crypto. It would be interesting to know the degree of rehypothecation in Bitcoin instruments currently (and hence the leverage in the system).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-a...ans-1402093846
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=1366171

[jacoavlu]

The inelastic or fixed short term supply characteristic of Bitcoin is not unique and many commodities have this feature.

bitcoin fixed supply is not short term. It’s permanent.

[xraygoggles]

Ethereum crossed all time highs today... this is just the beginning - smart contracts, DeFi, v2.0 with proof of stake, etc. Big Money (TM) is still focused on Bitcoin as a store of value. Eventually, there will be some intelligent quants or hedge funds who realize the potential of ether, and there will be significant inflows, imo.

DeFi is in the early stages - many projects with low market caps but with a lot of potential for massive growth.

[jacoavlu]

Ethereum crossed all time highs today... this is just the beginning - smart contracts, DeFi, v2.0 with proof of stake, etc. Big Money (TM) is still focused on Bitcoin as a store of value. Eventually, there will be some intelligent quants or hedge funds who realize the potential of ether, and there will be significant inflows, imo.

DeFi is in the early stages - many projects with low market caps but with a lot of potential for massive growth.

all time high only ETH:USD, but I think viewing it in terms of ETH:BTC is more valuable. In which case it is not an all time high.

[xraygoggles]

all time high only ETH:USD, but I think viewing it in terms of ETH:BTC is more valuable. In which case it is not an all time high.

ETH/BTC under 0.04 is what people smarter than me say is a good buy for ether. Currently its at .035. But this is assuming there's no innovations in the projects, which is false.

[jacoavlu]

ETH/BTC under 0.4 is what people smarter than me say is a good buy for ether. Currently its at .035. But this is assuming there's no innovations in the projects, which is false.

point being if you're investing in ETH or other alt coins your goal should be to outperform BTC.

[Lordosis]

point being if you're investing in ETH or other alt coins your goal should be to outperform BTC.

Your goal should be to get out before everyone else.

I am getting a Tulip, beanie baby, .com, housing feeling to this. I wonder if in a few decades it will come back like housing or the general market or if it will be gone forever like beanie babies.

[jacoavlu]

Your goal should be to get out before everyone else.

I am getting a Tulip, beanie baby, .com, housing feeling to this. I wonder if in a few decades it will come back like housing or the general market or if it will be gone forever like beanie babies.

question is, real asset or not. Still TBD

treat it like everything else. Don't invest what you can't afford to lose, only invest if you commit to buy and hold.

[xraygoggles]

point being if you're investing in ETH or other alt coins your goal should be to outperform BTC.

depends on when you choose the start date.

since bitcoin inception, its the best performing asset last decade. but if you look recently (last 5 years), eth has done much better.

[jacoavlu]

depends on when you choose the start date.

since bitcoin inception, its the best performing asset last decade. but if you look recently (last 5 years), eth has done much better.

agree.

my only point, if I were investing in alts my point of reference would be price:BTC. I think we agree alts are more risk than BTC correct?

[billy]

Your goal should be to get out before everyone else.

I am getting a Tulip, beanie baby, .com, housing feeling to this. I wonder if in a few decades it will come back like housing or the general market or if it will be gone forever like beanie babies.

every so often a meme pops up with a divorcing couple splitting up their beanie baby collection on the courtroom floor... I wonder if any bitcoin divorcee will conveniently forget his or her password during the divorce, only to remember it a few years later.

[NapoleanDynamite]

every so often a meme pops up with a divorcing couple splitting up their beanie baby collection on the courtroom floor... I wonder if any bitcoin divorcee will conveniently forget his or her password during the divorce, only to remember it a few years later.

This thought has crossed many a mind I'm sure. Very difficult to find a password that is memorized but "forgotten" ...Just sayin. This probably is not the best investment/use case for Bitcoin, but something to think about if you are approaching divorce.

[Lordosis]

every so often a meme pops up with a divorcing couple splitting up their beanie baby collection on the courtroom floor... I wonder if any bitcoin divorcee will conveniently forget his or her password during the divorce, only to remember it a few years later.

I think there are safeguards to keep people from blowing all their money right before a divorce. I am sure this would be included. Probably get your wages garnished or other assets seized.

I have a family member who still has them all in bags and labeled just waiting for it to come back. She gave me a box of 50 or so "duds" to give to my kids and they use them as projectiles in some game they made up.

[Brains428]

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/fi...U.S.%20dollars.

https://www.womansdivorce.com/cryptocurrency-in-divorce.html

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/family-law-cryptocurrency-and-divorce-new-challenges-attorneys

I couldn't find a real case about it, but it's a real concern.

[NapoleanDynamite]

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/fi...U.S.%20dollars.

https://www.womansdivorce.com/cryptocurrency-in-divorce.html

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/family-law-cryptocurrency-and-divorce-new-challenges-attorneys

I couldn't find a real case about it, but it's a real concern.

It would be virtually impossible to prove that you lost (or didn't lose) your keys. If the lawyers followed your tax records (which they can do in some cases) and you suddenly claimed a large payout of crypto with the IRS then there would be flags. But there are ways around all of these things....none of them being very legal. I have no doubt that they have and that they will occur going forward.

That being said, divorce proceedings are often ugly and hiding money (or attempting to hide money) is not a new concept nor is it restricted to Bitcoin/cryptocurrency.