Bitcoin is still early

[xraygoggles]

It's back up close to 35k now after dipping to 30k earlier. The "VIX" is back baby!

But seriously, as the price grows it is very likely we will see swings of 5k, 10k, and even 20-25k. These numbers seem ridiculous, but are likely to occur. If you have a magic timer then there is big money to be made on the swings. Since I am a simple mind with not enough time, I will stick with my HODL technique that has worked very nicely so far. I also loathe additional taxes right now.

My plan remains the same. As it approaches 100K I will likely take some money off the table and put it in to real estate (I would like to outright buy another property or two). Some would argue that I should borrow against the BTC to finance these properties. I don't have the risk tolerance for that, so I will just buy them outright. Other than that I will likely leave the BTC alone rebalance my AA if there is a major change in macro/market conditions. With Biden and congress advancing with major stimulus in the coming months, I have no reason to worry about the BTC price at this time.

There's solid support at 30k. Like I mentioned before, during this bull cycle, it's not going below 30k (25k absolute minimum). Since Bitcoin doesn't have any fundamentals underlying it, technical analysis actually kinda makes sense. Or at least as much sense as possible in a volatile asset with no underlying backing.

Historically in crypto, when there's a large pullback like this and it starts to consolidate around a certain level, this is the best time to go into alts, as they will start to moonshot as people take some BTC gains into those while it stabilizes at a price. DeFi is the go to for 2021. I'm not giving any specific ones, but you can just buy the largest market cap ones, if desired.

When it hits 6 figures in the future, taking some profits makes sense, depending on how many you have. I plan on staking some coins for yield, like I currently do with Ether and some DeFi coins.

[NapoleanDynamite]

waiting for 20k before I punch myself in face harder

This shows me that you did not really have the understanding to provide you with the conviction needed to properly invest. Analogy: If you "FOMO'd into VTSMX" at 30K and then it pulled back to 25K three days later, would you give up and never invest more of your money in VTSMX again? I hope not.

My first investment into Bitcoin was on March 8th, 2020. Price was at 8K. I bought 15K worth of BTC on March 8th. On March 12th, Bitcoin bottomed out (with the rest of the market) at $3500. (That was more than a 50% unrealized loss on my initial investment). I had planned to pyramid into my position ahead of time. I waited for the price to turn. So when it started to rise again I bought my next 20K at $4500 on March 12th. I bought again on March 20th, March 28th and so on until I had achieved my desired AA of 7.5% of my porfolio.

Buying at a current market top is not that big of a deal no matter what you are buying. Hold (HODL) your buy for 5 years and come back and tell us how you have done. Although past returns cannot predict future outcomes, anyone who bought BTC and held it for 5 years at any time in the 12 years of BTC existence has made incredible gains. If you learn more about BTC in the mean time, your conviction for your initial purchase will be much stronger and I'm willing to bet you will increase your allocation size.

I'm not saying it couldn't be wrong....but you will be less affected by the fear, uncertainty, and doubt that others are putting in your mind. It is very likely that your 40K purchase price will be another blip on the radar. Good luck.

[IlliniGopher]

except its really hard to get Patek (or AP or Rolex) at retail without connections

Depends on which model

[IlliniGopher]

I might go for the Patek or the 50 year old McAllen before I put any on Bitcoin

I like your style. I bought Macallan 18 for the pandemic. Patek in 20 yeras

[jacoavlu]

Depends on which model

hook me up a 5164a

[G]

hook me up a 5164a

love it. steel watches have had the same hyperbolic price growth as btc, yeah?...except only one of them is useful on a daily basis.

I really like the aquanat. I love the green one, but my daughter vetoed.

I find that this thread has become interesting again.

[jacoavlu]

love it. steel watches have had the same hyperbolic price growth as btc, yeah?...except only one of them is useful on a daily basis.

I really like the aquanat. I love the green one, but my daughter vetoed.

I find that this thread has become interesting again.

kinda yeah. Crazy what can happen to price of a desirous asset that doesn’t get debased by its supplier

compromise get black with green strap

[G]

kinda yeah. Crazy what can happen to price of a desirous asset that doesn’t get debased by its supplier

compromise get black with green strap

ha, we think alike. I once got a new deployant buckle and let her pick a strap from a curated list of options. the retailer said she chose the very best color in her opinion. everybody wins!

[NapoleanDynamite]

kinda yeah. Crazy what can happen to price of a desirous asset that doesn’t get debased by its supplier

compromise get black with green strap

I see what you did there. Very nice.

[NapoleanDynamite]

For those of you asking about Tax Loss Harvesting GBTC in your retirement funds....This might be an option for you going forward. Looks like OBTC (Osprey Funds) will probably start trading next week and be a small scale competitor to GBTC. It will likely be a OTC market so buyer beware...but there will be more competition for GBTC going forward.

https://www.ospreyfunds.io/

[billy]

For those of you asking about Tax Loss Harvesting GBTC in your retirement funds....This might be an option for you going forward. Looks like OBTC (Osprey Funds) will probably start trading next week and be a small scale competitor to GBTC. It will likely be a OTC market so buyer beware...but there will be more competition for GBTC going forward.

https://www.ospreyfunds.io/

you mean in a taxable account... there is no tax loss harvesting in a retirement account

[NapoleanDynamite]

Yes...sorry I was not clear...I was assuming those discussing TLH earlier in this thread had taxable accounts in their “retirement funds”. Unfortunately for many of us, our taxable account is the largest portion of our retirement funds. We don’t all have 85 different tax sheltered opportunities like WCI. (Yes, I’m jealous)

[xraygoggles]

With GBTC, there are short-term price asymmetries you can take advantage of, if you really wanted. It normally trades at around a 2% premium to underlying price, but when there are big inflows in the fund, that discrepancy gets even larger. It happened last few weeks with GBTC, ETHE, and GDLC.

Or you can just buy and HODL, dips and all.

[Nysoz]

https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium...e-f8dcf78a64d3

this is an interesting read for someone outside of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. I have no idea what a lot of it means but it argues that there’s some shady business going on

[CordMcNally]

https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium...e-f8dcf78a64d3

this is an interesting read from someone outside of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. I have no idea what a lot of it means but it argues that there’s some shady business going on

I think there's probably a lot of shady business going on in the crypto world. From a personal standpoint, I'd be A-OK with Bitcoin crashing.