Bitcoin is still early

[jacoavlu]

Big ball of rock orbiting the earth.

I’m honestly interested in thoughts. But you’re free not to answer the question.

Gun to my head I would take the opposite position.

But you’re allowed to define your terms including price and time frame. If we’re having real conversations.

[abds]

Granted, I don't short anything...but shorting Bitcoin tends to not be a good idea. You might time it right, but it is far more likely you will end up completely wrecked.

What evidence do you have to support this? I’m guessing that if shorting Bitcoin was available got the last 4 years many people would have made a lot of money doing so.

[jacoavlu]

What evidence do you have to support this? I’m guessing that if shorting Bitcoin was available got the last 4 years many people would have made a lot of money doing so.

you could obviously make money long or short, just have to get the timing right

[xraygoggles]

What evidence do you have to support this? I’m guessing that if shorting Bitcoin was available got the last 4 years many people would have made a lot of money doing so.

It is an option, see my post above. They have both futures and options on all the major coins. Binance, Chicago Mercantile Exchange and some other smaller platforms as well.

Short away, my friend. I am looking into calls myself (for Eth mainly, but maybe btc as well). We will see who is right next year...

[Lordosis]

I’m honestly interested in thoughts. But you’re free not to answer the question.

Gun to my head I would take the opposite position.

But you’re allowed to define your terms including price and time frame. If we’re having real conversations.

I am not really sure what the moon would be with bitcoin. It has gone higher then I expected already. Seems pretty bubbly. I do not have convictions strong enough to put money on it but I bet we see 10k again before 100k.

[Dont_know_mind]

I shorted 1 bitcoin shortly after they introduced the futures in bitcoin in 2018.
Just for fun. I think I went short 1 btc around 16k and had set aside about 10k in margin in case it went crazy. It peaked around 20k. I think I made about 5k, closing the short around 10k. It was not worth the risk.
The price was quite hyperbolic in 2018. 1k to 20k that year. I may have just been lucky not to have been vaporised.

I am not thinking about shorting it here.

Theoretically though, the profit is the same if you short at 500k and it goes to $1 as if you buy at $1 and it goes to 500k.
But shorting is harder because there's no clear place to put a stoploss. I just set the stoploss at 50% above where I shorted.
I wonder how much margin you would need though to short 1 BTC if it was 500k. Probably a lot more than $1, so in that sense too it is easier to buy at $1 than short at $500k (much more capital at risk and margin requirement).

Anyway, if it does meet an untimely demise, it will be interesting to watch, but who knows when or if that will happen.

[Dont_know_mind]

Highly amusing reading some of the commentary on BTC, like Mungers comments last year:
Munger previously decried trading in the asset class, saying it was "just dementia."

"And I think the people who are professional traders that go into trading cryptocurrencies, it's just disgusting," he added. "It's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide, 'I can't be left out.'

https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-price-charlie-munger-jokes-about-cryptocurrencies-2019-5-1028167399

Like when I told the guy on this forum he was going to get his head handed to him buying Tesla LEAPS (before it went up 100X). Ha! You never know. That's the beauty of markets, it makes fools out of all of us.

Anyway, I reckon this Bitcoin stuff long or short is just gambling and anyone who doesn't realize this may well get their head handed to them. But you know what, I've been wrong before!

[Tim]

23 pages is too much for my simple mind.
• Would you sign a contract of any type (employment or debt) denominated in bitcoin?
• The perception is that bitcoin’s primary usefulness has been for “bad actors”. Yes, movement of value from one location to another to avoid detection.
Those two items relegate bitcoin to an exchange vehicle rather than a base currency or as an exchange currency.

The second item will eventually get filtered out.
Currency risk is a base denomination problem. Much greater than inflation. Dollar denominated accounts are electronic. Which has less risk?

What I see is speculation, not risk management.

[Dont_know_mind]

I had not looked at this since 2017. Then there were no Bitcoin options. Now you can buy a put option on Bitcoin. This is much better than attempting to short it. I’ll have to keep my eye on it.

[jacoavlu]

Highly amusing reading some of the commentary on BTC, like Mungers comments last year:
Munger previously decried trading in the asset class, saying it was "just dementia."

"And I think the people who are professional traders that go into trading cryptocurrencies, it's just disgusting," he added. "It's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide, 'I can't be left out.'

Buffett called it rat poison

[abds]

you could obviously make money long or short, just have to get the timing right

I agree. And for the record I don’t do any timing myself, I was just pointing out that the statement “shorting Bitcoin tends to be a bad idea” may not be accurate at all.

[Brains428]

Good timing Tim

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/panthers-russell-okung-becomes-first-nfl-player-to-be-paid-in-bitcoin/

[jacoavlu]

Good timing Tim

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/panthers-russell-okung-becomes-first-nfl-player-to-be-paid-in-bitcoin/

to be clear that’s not a contract denominated in bitcoin. Any of us could do the same. Not quite as seamlessly (yet), but we could. The contract is still denominated in USD, and at payment there’s a conversion to btc.

that’s very different than, say, an option to have a contract for one year for a) 10M USD or b) 400 BTC.

[NapoleanDynamite]

What evidence do you have to support this? I’m guessing that if shorting Bitcoin was available got the last 4 years many people would have made a lot of money doing so.

1. Shorting bitcoin is an option.
2. I'm sure many traders have done so and made money. It has been highly volatile in its relatively short history.
3. My evidence is BTC's return over the past 12 years.
4. Your guess about "shorting Bitcoin in the past 4 years"...This is a factually incorrect statement.

If you want to look at any calendar year, there is only one time in the past 12 years that shorting Bitcoin would have worked out for you. December of 2017 to December of 2018. This short would have paid handsomely.

Is there a ton of volatility on shorter time frames that you could have won on a short bet? Yes. Absolutely. But overall, the short play has been wrong.

As I previously stated, I don't short anything. Stocks, Commodities, Market, currencies etc. I adjust my asset allocation in my portfolio if I feel it is warranted based on current data and my current life situation. So I'm probably not the best person to discuss trading or shorting with. I do trade a few stocks with some pocket change, but I always trade the long position and I don't count this as part of my retirement portfolio. That is "fun" money plain and simple.

Bitcoin is an asset class that now has over 0.5 Trillion dollar market cap. When it breaches 1T and 10T market caps you will see less volatility. In the mean time, short away if you don't agree. We will see how it goes. I have stated where my investment is at. Good luck.

[jacoavlu]

I am not really sure what the moon would be with bitcoin. It has gone higher then I expected already. Seems pretty bubbly. I do not have convictions strong enough to put money on it but I bet we see 10k again before 100k.

you picked good numbers for a bet. I wouldn't choose either side confidently. But since the downside is already taken, I'll take the upside.

So the bet:

Upside wins, you have to change your profile pic to a bitcoin symbol and I get to write you a nice non-offensive pro-bitcoin signature for all your posts, to persist for two months. And if downside wins?