Bitcoin is still early

[jacoavlu]

1) why the Bitcoin price will continue to be volatile for a long time?
2) what problem Bitcoin actually solves?
3) what development is being done as we speak in regards to the Bitcoin network?

Finally. after 231 pages just answer 3 questions or provide links or comment # that you answered previously.
Short form please. Just 3 questions.

1 it’s still a relatively small asset in the grand scheme of things and trades 24/7/365 globally with lots of avenues for leverage and shorting etc

2 separation of money and state, permissionless value transfer that can’t be censored

3 bitcoin layer, very little which is good. The sooner it ossifies the better. UX improvements are needed but that’s not central to bitcoin. Fungibility and privacy aspects could be better but there are no solutions only tradeoffs

[Tim]

1 it’s still a relatively small asset in the grand scheme of things and trades 24/7/365 globally with lots of avenues for leverage and shorting etc

2 separation of money and state, permissionless value transfer that can’t be censored

3 bitcoin layer, very little which is good. The sooner it ossifies the better. UX improvements are needed but that’s not central to bitcoin. Fungibility and privacy aspects could be better but there are no solutions only tradeoffs

Succinct answer. None of the 3 provide value to me. From a market standpoint, the total market that needs or wants any of the 3 would appear to be a niche market. Might be why adoption is difficult to achieve. Thanks.

[jacoavlu]

Succinct answer. None of the 3 provide value to me. From a market standpoint, the total market that needs or wants any of the 3 would appear to be a niche market. Might be why adoption is difficult to achieve. Thanks.

there are by my count 15 countries whose currencies have depreciated more than 30% vs the US dollar in the past year, with turkey nigeria iran sudan and pakistan between 20 and 30%. we are spoiled living under the dollar even though long term the value of the dollar is going to continue to be inflated via money printing

[Tim]

there are by my count 15 countries whose currencies have depreciated more than 30% vs the US dollar in the past year, with turkey nigeria iran sudan and pakistan between 20 and 30%. we are spoiled living under the dollar even though long term the value of the dollar is going to continue to be inflated via money printing

I understand countries have unstable currencies and governments. Not one of the 3 questions.
Yes, living in the US under the dollar and government spoils us tremendously. Still don’t see huge market potential.
Niche markets can still be profitable.

[jacoavlu]

I understand countries have unstable currencies and governments. Not one of the 3 questions.
Yes, living in the US under the dollar and government spoils us tremendously. Still don’t see huge market potential.
Niche markets can still be profitable.

separation of money and state. Monetary policy that is fixed, not susceptible to manipulation by central authorities

[NapoleanDynamite]

1) why the Bitcoin price will continue to be volatile for a long time?
2) what problem Bitcoin actually solves?
3) what development is being done as we speak in regards to the Bitcoin network?

Finally. after 231 pages just answer 3 questions or provide links or comment # that you answered previously.
Short form please. Just 3 questions.

1. Mostly what Jaco said. Still a very small asset class. Thinly traded. Cyclical nature. "Paper" Bitcoin...amongst many other reasons.
2. "separation of money and state, permissionless value transfer that can’t be censored" as Jaco said... and can't be F-d with. Cannot be inflated or deflated at the whim of 10 "economics" experts. Cannot be used as a weapon to exert dominance over another entity.
3. The "Bitcoin Network" - Not a lot. Changes are slow with the network. Which is good. But the asset class? A crap ton. There are so many companies working to bring this "niche" asset to worldwide adoption. People in other countries have a lot more incentive to use Bitcoin than you or I. I will name just 2 companies that are working to bring Bitcoin to >1 Billion people in Africa (So "niche"). Check out Gridless and Fedi/Fedimint and see what they are doing in the Bitcoin space. The goals of these companies are lofty. And neither may succeed. But there are many just like them working on similar projects. The end goal: Bring Bitcoin to those who need it the most....and rapidly.

That's as succinct as I can be to questions that require much more in depth conversation.

[Tim]

1. Mostly what Jaco said. Still a very small asset class. Thinly traded. Cyclical nature. "Paper" Bitcoin...amongst many other reasons.
2. "separation of money and state, permissionless value transfer that can’t be censored" as Jaco said... and can't be F-d with. Cannot be inflated or deflated at the whim of 10 "economics" experts. Cannot be used as a weapon to exert dominance over another entity.
3. The "Bitcoin Network" - Not a lot. Changes are slow with the network. Which is good. But the asset class? A crap ton. There are so many companies working to bring this "niche" asset to worldwide adoption. People in other countries have a lot more incentive to use Bitcoin than you or I. I will name just 2 companies that are working to bring Bitcoin to >1 Billion people in Africa (So "niche"). Check out Gridless and Fedi/Fedimint and see what they are doing in the Bitcoin space. The goals of these companies are lofty. And neither may succeed. But there are many just like them working on similar projects. The end goal: Bring Bitcoin to those who need it the most....and rapidly.

That's as succinct as I can be to questions that require much more in depth conversation.

The only strong argument is number 2). However, the what if seems rare that one needs to add BTC to the “survivalist toolbox.” I do keep a couple grand cash, but that’s for natural disasters (hurricanes knock out power and banking systems). But I don’t see a need to flee and dip into BTC as being something that I would ever need.
It may happen and I could get screwed. I doubt my BTC survival stash would be significant. Same as a couple grand cash. Very very useful in unlikely situations.

Numbers 1) and 3) seem to be narratives (may or may not turn out) but don’t justify a speculative investment for me.
2) is real. Emotionally one would need a fairly large holding if you really needed it to survive (financially speaking).

[NapoleanDynamite]

The only strong argument is number 2). However, the what if seems rare that one needs to add BTC to the “survivalist toolbox.” I do keep a couple grand cash, but that’s for natural disasters (hurricanes knock out power and banking systems). But I don’t see a need to flee and dip into BTC as being something that I would ever need.
It may happen and I could get screwed. I doubt my BTC survival stash would be significant. Same as a couple grand cash. Very very useful in unlikely situations.

Numbers 1) and 3) seem to be narratives (may or may not turn out) but don’t justify a speculative investment for me.
2) is real. Emotionally one would need a fairly large holding if you really needed it to survive (financially speaking).

#1 was not an argument to use Bitcoin as an investment. Just an answer to your question as to why it is volatile.
#3 was also an answer to your question. We could debate whether adoption will increase price...but the effort to increase the adoption of Bitcoin is not. It is happening.

And although I have said this countless times at this point I need to reiterate that literally every investment one makes is "speculative". It really tweaks me when people default to saying "X" investment is too "speculative". Literally every decision you make with your investment money is speculating. Some may have more or less risk, but they are all speculative or they wouldn't be considered investments.

spec·u·la·tion
/ˌspekyəˈlāSH(ə)n/
Learn to pronounce
noun

1. 1.
   the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.
2. 2.
   investment in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss.
   "the company's move into property speculation"

To add...In the US we are relatively priveleged. So you deciding that the investment is not for you is just fine. You do you. You may be right or you may be wrong. But people dismissing it as gambling at this point is just wrong IMO.

[Tim]

#1 was not an argument to use Bitcoin as an investment. Just an answer to your question as to why it is volatile.
#3 was also an answer to your question. We could debate whether adoption will increase price...but the effort to increase the adoption of Bitcoin is not. It is happening.

And although I have said this countless times at this point I need to reiterate that literally every investment one makes is "speculative". It really tweaks me when people default to saying "X" investment is too "speculative". Literally every decision you make with your investment money is speculating. Some may have more or less risk, but they are all speculative or they wouldn't be considered investments.

spec·u·la·tion
/ˌspekyəˈlāSH(ə)n/
Learn to pronounce
noun

1. 1.
   the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.
2. 2.
   investment in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss.
   "the company's move into property speculation"

To add...In the US we are relatively priveleged. So you deciding that the investment is not for you is just fine. You do you. You may be right or you may be wrong. But people dismissing it as gambling at this point is just wrong IMO.

My friend, my three items were taken from your post defining what I was missing. I really hoped the answer to the 3 questions would be the end. Now you add another one. I have no desire to debate right or wrong or dictionary definitions or narratives. Best of luck but I am glad you haven't made this a key survivalist strategy and kept it as a minor piece of your strategies.

[NapoleanDynamite]

My friend, my three items were taken from your post defining what I was missing. I really hoped the answer to the 3 questions would be the end. Now you add another one. I have no desire to debate right or wrong or dictionary definitions or narratives. Best of luck but I am glad you haven't made this a key survivalist strategy and kept it as a minor piece of your strategies.

Sorry Tim,

My providing the definition of Speculation was not entirely directed at you. For whatever reason it really triggers me when anyone tries to use the word "speculative" for a reason to not invest in something. Bitcoin seems to get called "speculative" as a pejorative term and argument against it with more frequency than any other asset class I have ever seen.

Throughout this thread and many other posts on WCI this term is thrown about like it is something bad. However, as investors we are all speculating. Speculating that stocks will go up, real estate will go up, oil/gas will go up, Bitcoin will go up or we hold cash/gold and assume that everything goes down in relation to cash/gold. But if we are not using something for our lives, and we invest in it with the hope of future gains or hold it in the hope that we decrease our risk of loss we are speculating.

Search the term "Speculative" on WCI search button and see how many times it is associated with Bitcoin. My guess is the overwhelming majority.

[bovie]

However, as investors we are all speculating. Speculating that stocks will go up, real estate will go up, oil/gas will go up, Bitcoin will go up or we hold cash/gold and assume that everything goes down in relation to cash/gold. But if we are not using something for our lives, and we invest in it with the hope of future gains or hold it in the hope that we decrease our risk of loss we are speculating.

Perhaps it’s triggering because the facts are in opposition to your world view.

The only way to make make money or receive cashflows from Bitcoin (or any other speculative investment) is for its price to go up and for you to sell it.

That’s not the case for stocks, bonds, or real estate.

[jacoavlu]

The only way to make make money or receive cashflows from Bitcoin (or any other speculative investment) is for its price to go up and for you to sell it.

That’s not the case for stocks, bonds, or real estate.

all “money” works this way

if we thought the dollar would increase in relative value (purchasing power) over time we would all hold dollars. But we know there is zero chance of that happening and so most of us don’t hold more than a small amount of our wealth in dollars

[bovie]

all “money” works this way

if we thought the dollar would increase in relative value (purchasing power) over time we would all hold dollars. But we know there is zero chance of that happening and so most of us don’t hold more than a small amount of our wealth in dollars

That's not what I'm talking about, and I think you know that.

What I'm saying is that it's just denial of the facts to pretend that putting money in Bitcoin (or art, or wine, or whatever other non-productive asset) is equally as speculative (or as not speculative, take your pick) as putting money in stocks, bonds, or real estate.

Nothing more, nothing less.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Perhaps it’s triggering because the facts are in opposition to your world view.

The only way to make make money or receive cashflows from Bitcoin (or any other speculative investment) is for its price to go up and for you to sell it.

That’s not the case for stocks, bonds, or real estate.

No...it is triggering because people only use the word to argue against what their view is. For example, "I don't agree with you buying gold because it is a speculative asset." Or "I don't agree with you buying stocks or real estate because it is too speculative." They are just idiotic statements. I have seen them both stated in the past.

A bond, stock or real estate can return a dividend/rent etc but still have a net negative return. It actually happens all the time.

If you buy a bond that returns 2% and M2 is 10% and CPI are 10% you have negative real return. If your $100,000 rental home returns you 100 dollars a month for 3 years, but the house loses 20% of it's value when you sell it after 3 years, you are negative about 16%. If your dividend fund returns 1% but drops in value by 15% over 5 years, you have a negative return. It is all speculation that things will go up. There is literally no asset class with a guaranteed return. They are all speculative.

Some have less risk and some have more risk based on historical data. You can argue that Bitcoin has a much higher risk of a negative return. You can argue that real estate or stocks are in a "bubble" and have a high risk of a negative/lower return. But conflating risk with speculation is just grammatically wrong IMO.

Oh well...Probably just my Asperger's kicking in.

[jacoavlu]

That's not what I'm talking about, and I think you know that.

What I'm saying is that it's just denial of the facts to pretend that putting money in Bitcoin (or art, or wine, or whatever other non-productive asset) is equally as speculative (or as not speculative, take your pick) as putting money in stocks, bonds, or real estate.

Nothing more, nothing less.

not disagreeing with you