Bitcoin is still early

[Panscan]

Bear market rallies are brutal. Only needs to 3.2x from here to return to ATH lol

[GIMD]

Depends on what the risk sentiment is going forward. If people think that the worse is over, inflation is trending down, and upcoming earning season is decent, I wouldn't be surpised if BTC goes 2x. I think the chance of BTC going to 40K is much higher than going to 0.

[abds]

Depends on what the risk sentiment is going forward. If people think that the worse is over, inflation is trending down, and upcoming earning season is decent, I wouldn't be surpised if BTC goes 2x. I think the chance of BTC going to 40K is much higher than going to 0.

I think most folks agree that the chance of BTC going to 0 is small. So what do you mean by 0? Could it be $1000? Sure. $1? I suppose. But will it ever be 0? I doubt it.

Anyway do you think 40k is more likely than 10k? That’s a much better question.

[Panscan]

I think most folks agree that the chance of BTC going to 0 is small. So what do you mean by 0? Could it be $1000? Sure. $1? I suppose. But will it ever be 0? I doubt it.

Anyway do you think 40k is more likely than 10k? That’s a much better question.

Exactly.

liquidity will continue to be sucked out and Btc, a weed of excess liquidity will continue to be extinguished.

[GIMD]

Agree that's a better question. My personal thought is that BTC receives alot of support around 20K probably because that's the cost to mine 1 BTC. It spends most of the 2nd half of last year at 20K until the FTX fiasco that drops the price down to 16-17K, but now has bounced back to 20K again. For it to drop to 10K, I think some sorts of catastrophe have to happen (Binance or some major stablecoins collapsing), but it only needs some moments of enthusiasm to go to 40K. So yes, I think the odds of BTC hitting 40K is higher than going down to 10K. I own several BTCs with a cost basis around 17K and feel comfortable holding out long-term. I would not buy BTC if it is above 20K.

I think most folks agree that the chance of BTC going to 0 is small. So what do you mean by 0? Could it be $1000? Sure. $1? I suppose. But will it ever be 0? I doubt it.

Anyway do you think 40k is more likely than 10k? That’s a much better question.

[Panscan]

Agree that's a better question. My personal thought is that BTC receives alot of support around 20K probably because that's the cost to mine 1 BTC. It spends most of the 2nd half of last year at 20K until the FTX fiasco that drops the price down to 16-17K, but now has bounced back to 20K again. For it to drop to 10K, I think some sorts of catastrophe have to happen (Binance or some major stablecoins collapsing), but it only needs some moments of enthusiasm to go to 40K. So yes, I think the odds of BTC hitting 40K is higher than going down to 10K. I own several BTCs with a cost basis around 17K and feel comfortable holding out long-term. I would not buy BTC if it is above 20K.

keep in mind lots of these bad actors who blew up were also major positive catalysts on way up. Ftx, 3 arrows etc. all of these groups were basically max long with huge leverage it seems. So framing the current price relative to prior ATHs may not be reasonable as long as the tailwinds crypto had before are gone.

[Yoshi Soto]

keep in mind lots of these bad actors who blew up were also major positive catalysts on way up. Ftx, 3 arrows etc. all of these groups were basically max long with huge leverage it seems. So framing the current price relative to prior ATHs may not be reasonable as long as the tailwinds crypto had before are gone.

FTX and 3 arrows might be gone but more will come. No new regulation in place and even if the US did create a strong regulatory framework, bitcoin is global, nothing to stop bad actors from doing this in another country

[NapoleanDynamite]

Oh well. Guess I was the only one buying in the Spring of 2020 and I should expect to be the only one buying now. Will keep buying too. Continue to DCA just like I DCA into equities and real estate. Boring but pays out handsomely over time.

I think what you all are missing is common amongst investors/traders. You lack understanding as to why the Bitcoin price will continue to be volatile for a long time, what problem Bitcoin actually solves, but also lack the education as to what development is being done as we speak in regards to the Bitcoin network. So...see you in the next "bubble" when the price is far higher than the current price or the past ATH. In the mean time keep ripping away at how bad an investment Bitcoin is.

[Panscan]

Oh well. Guess I was the only one buying in the Spring of 2020 and I should expect to be the only one buying now. Will keep buying too. Continue to DCA just like I DCA into equities and real estate. Boring but pays out handsomely over time.

I think what you all are missing is common amongst investors/traders. You lack understanding as to why the Bitcoin price will continue to be volatile for a long time, what problem Bitcoin actually solves, but also lack the education as to what development is being done as we speak in regards to the Bitcoin network. So...see you in the next "bubble" when the price is far higher than the current price or the past ATH. In the mean time keep ripping away at how bad an investment Bitcoin is.

Only has to triple from here to get back to ATH. Good luck

[NapoleanDynamite]

Only has to triple from here to get back to ATH. Good luck

My S/P return since 2020 are about 15% with DCA. My Bitcoin returns since 2020 are about 200% with DCA. Good luck to yourself.

[NapoleanDynamite]

My S/P return since 2020 are about 15% with DCA. My Bitcoin returns since 2020 are about 200% with DCA. Good luck to yourself.

Sorry...I inflated this since I put a bunch in early in 2020 prior to DCA. My DCA returns are only about 100% with BTC since 2020.

[Panscan]

Sorry...I inflated this since I put a bunch in early in 2020 prior to DCA. My DCA returns are only about 100% with BTC since 2020.

Interesting as any DCA over the last 2 years would be down. So did you put a ton in early 2020 and then minimal after that? Only way the math would check out. Anyone putting in x amount routinely since 2020 would not be looking so hot RN.

[The White Coat Investor]

Interesting as any DCA over the last 2 years would be down. So did you put a ton in early 2020 and then minimal after that? Only way the math would check out. Anyone putting in x amount routinely since 2020 would not be looking so hot RN.

Don't spoil it for him with math!

Just let him have his victory lap. BTC is up 30% YTD. I've got a neighbor who told me he put all his money into BTC miners last month and has had a 100% return on his portfolio since then. The only appropriate response to that is "Congratulations!" even if I really worry about what that sort of risk taking can do to a portfolio in the long run. I'm not really surprised to see BTC going up although I would have guessed it would not have done so for a while yet. I've been pretty surprised to see how correlated it seems to be with stocks the last year or two.

[Yoshi Soto]

Oh well. Guess I was the only one buying in the Spring of 2020 and I should expect to be the only one buying now. Will keep buying too. Continue to DCA just like I DCA into equities and real estate. Boring but pays out handsomely over time.

You're not the only one. I've been buying all of last year and this year. This is the way

[Panscan]

You're not the only one. I've been buying all of last year and this year. This is the way

Replace with lighting money on fire