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Good choice.
I had a friend message me on November 3rd....he was a friend who knows that I am bullish bitcoin. He looked at it hard and noticed it was near it's all time high (it was at about 18K). His words were, "seems like a bad time to buy....can I short it?" Thankfully, he listened to me and didn't short it. Obviously it would have been disastrous for him. Instead he bought a little. He is happy and has since bought more.
Granted, I don't short anything...but shorting Bitcoin tends to not be a good idea. You might time it right, but it is far more likely you will end up completely wrecked.
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Eventually all bull runs end, but they don't die of old age. Some consequential news is needed to shift demand away from the investment. Then there may be good reason to short. Seasoned investors do this, it has nothing to do with timing which is more like what you're suggesting. Kinda like going short on airlines and cruise lines at the start of the pandemic because there was good reason. Then you have to exit the short position when data suggests a turn-around, not because it dropped to any certain level. At which time going long may be a good idea due to the data. We're seeing some of that now with recent data on flights, cruise bookings.
As Bitcoin matures, volatility will likely diminish as more long term believers provide a floor of baseline demand. Bitcoin can still go under if they leave, but they won't leave without reason.Comment
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