Bitcoin is still early

[jacoavlu]

Stores of value need intrinsic value. We have to need them.

for btc to have the market cap of gold, gold would have to substantially decrease in value. Btc market cap is also not in any way shape or form actually real. It is hugely falsely elevated by the immense leverage which still exists and intrinsic ponzis via all these “institutions”, aka trailer park banks loaning each other money and then buying more crypto with it. The real market cap of all crypto is likely smaller by a factor of 10-20x. It is nowhere close to claimed and will never be anywhere close to gold.


As entities continue to blow up, net leverage will go down and will become regulated, not ever exceeding and approaching prior maxes. Binance and tether will go next as both are currently insolvent and ticking time bombs. 45% of binance holdings are in its own bs magic bean. It is eerily similar to ftx.

one big grift.

it will never not be funny that you started the altcoin defi thread

[Panscan]

it will never not be funny that you started the altcoin defi thread

Saw the light. Would think it’s logical someone who was actually interested and has some experience actually utilizing the scams would understand they how they work, not just a boomer who sits on sidelines.

[jacoavlu]

Saw the light. Would think it’s logical someone who was actually interested and has some experience actually utilizing the scams would understand they how they work, not just a boomer who sits on sidelines.

100% agree with you on this

[ERRES2288]

Stores of value need intrinsic value. We have to need them.

for btc to have the market cap of gold, gold would have to substantially decrease in value. Btc market cap is also not in any way shape or form actually real. It is hugely falsely elevated by the immense leverage which still exists and intrinsic ponzis via all these “institutions”, aka trailer park banks loaning each other money and then buying more crypto with it. The real market cap of all crypto is likely smaller by a factor of 10-20x. It is nowhere close to claimed and will never be anywhere close to gold.


As entities continue to blow up, net leverage will go down and will become regulated, not ever exceeding and approaching prior maxes. Binance and tether will go next as both are currently insolvent and ticking time bombs. 45% of binance holdings are in its own bs magic bean. It is eerily similar to ftx.

one big grift.

I pretty much agree with everything you wrote except the intrinsic value part. Why does gold have intrinsic value? And don’t tell me it’s because of its use as a metal. It’s because of social construct and the same could happen for btc. To entirely dismiss this is short sighted.

Difficult to tell how much leverage is actually propping up the price of btc but it is likely a lot. As all the leverage gets washed out there will be a few still standing.

[Panscan]

I pretty much agree with everything you wrote except the intrinsic value part. Why does gold have intrinsic value? And don’t tell me it’s because of its use as a metal. It’s because of social construct and the same could happen for btc. To entirely dismiss this is short sighted.

Difficult to tell how much leverage is actually propping up the price of btc but it is likely a lot. As all the leverage gets washed out there will be a few still standing.

Yes 100 % it is because of uses as a metal in both industry uses and jewelry which are 50/50 distribution wise. Believe me, I am no gold bug, have no interest owning any and also think it’s laughable something 50% used for jewelry is considered a leading commodity and store of value but that is far more solid than any claimed use case of Btc or defense as a store of value.

[jacoavlu]

Yes 100 % it is because of uses as a metal in both industry uses and jewelry which are 50/50 distribution wise. Believe me, I am no gold bug, have no interest owning any and also think it’s laughable something 50% used for jewelry is considered a leading commodity and store of value but that is far more solid than any claimed use case of Btc or defense as a store of value.

the fact that gold or silver have industrial uses is a bug not a feature in terms of functioning as money. A perfect money would have no use other than that of being money.

why did gold “become” the accepted money for centuries in the first place?

[StarTrekDoc]

the fact that gold or silver have industrial uses is a big not a feature in terms of functioning as money. A perfect money would have no use other than that of being money.

why did gold “become” the accepted money for centuries in the first place?

BTC isn't a ponsi scheme. There's a finite amount and then it's done. Even moreso, there's a continual loss factor to make it that much more rare.

The fact that gold/diamonds do have a rarity AND usefulness -- as jewelry/adornment to reflect the rarity and status -- that's what makes it valuable as a trade as currency cause it could be reshaped/refashioned into something useful/boastful. --- in the past.

Today's currency is different. It's the intrinsic value of the said country behind the currency based on GDP and that's what markets balance out the value of said currency based on that.

How does BTC factor into that? It has no country. It has no intrinsic value beyond its rarity. The trick that BTC suffers is how to you display that rarity value that makes OTHERS want it and keep up its value? That's the quandary I sit upon BTC.

[MMJB LLC]

I don't see BTC as a store of value. I don't see that it has any value, but if there is something there, my best guess is that it is close to zero. If you're hedging against financial Armageddon, then your best bet is own things with intrinsic value, i.e., things people will always need: land and shelter, non-perishable food, commodities, etc. BTC wouldn't be on my list.

2008 was not unique. Valuation methods are the same now as before.

Thanks for your input.

[jacoavlu]

BTC isn't a ponsi scheme. There's a finite amount and then it's done. Even moreso, there's a continual loss factor to make it that much more rare.

The fact that gold/diamonds do have a rarity AND usefulness -- as jewelry/adornment to reflect the rarity and status -- that's what makes it valuable as a trade as currency cause it could be reshaped/refashioned into something useful/boastful. --- in the past.

Today's currency is different. It's the intrinsic value of the said country behind the currency based on GDP and that's what markets balance out the value of said currency based on that.

How does BTC factor into that? It has no country. It has no intrinsic value beyond its rarity. The trick that BTC suffers is how to you display that rarity value that makes OTHERS want it and keep up its value? That's the quandary I sit upon BTC.

The argument for BTC value isn’t specifically rarity/fixed supply. There are plenty of “cryptocurrencies” with finite supply. And there are other things in the world with finite supply. But that doesn’t necessarily make those things valuable or “money”

generally accepted fundamental properties of money are durability, portability, fungibility, recognizability, and scarcity.

this is why gold came to be the “best” money. Metal tended to be useful as money and of the monetary metals gold best satisfied these fundamental properties. But it is certainly not perfect with regards to those fundamentals

the dollar is very good on 4 of those properties but is terrible on scarcity. Same with all fiat currencies. They always suffer from supply inflation. Supply can be inflated to infinity.

bitcoin arguably satisfies the fundamental principles of money better than anything that has ever existed. To be sure it is not perfect. But it has several advantages over gold and the dollar with regard to fundamental properties of money.

but, this only matters if people will come to recognize bitcoin as a thing of legitimate value. So far, over time, more and more people have come to accept bitcoin as something of legitimate value. But only time will tell as to whether bitcoin can truly achieve the aim of Satoshi and the cypherpunks which is the separation of money and state

[MMJB LLC]

Do preppers imagine that when western society and the dollar collapses, they'll be the currency kings? They think that with their gold and crypto they'll be able to hoard guns, butter, trips to New zealand and buy barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia? Masses in anarchy will forgo the dollar and accept bitcoin/gold shavings? I don't think this will happen. It's possible but I think it's too Hollywood.

I regretfully have seen that the prepper movement has some benefit. Personally, I do think the US economy will/is currently in collapse. The dollar may still be used as a global means of exchange but at a different valuation than before.
Everyone is going to be hurt by what is occurring and the major goal is to survive and minimize loss. Gold/bitcoin etc provide a potential means by which when the new economy arises, once can hopefully re-enter the new economy while minimizing loss. And if gold/bitcoin onramps to a new monetary system are blocked then I still think they would be used in a non-conventional barter type economy that would arise.

[jacoavlu]

I spend a decent amount of time in the “bitcoin” community and have never seen significant overlap between bitcoiners or “crypto” people and “preppers”

for sure bitcoiners generally do espouse a general sense of taking personal responsibility. But not to the point of being a prepper as far as I’ve seen

[MMJB LLC]

the fact that gold or silver have industrial uses is a bug not a feature in terms of functioning as money. A perfect money would have no use other than that of being money.

why did gold “become” the accepted money for centuries in the first place?

Gold has been a adopted as a store wealth over centuries and across several independent civilizations. Gold is a monetary metal first and foremost. Jewelry was essentially a mechanism to transport that wealth (see modern day India). It is the physical characteristics of gold that enabled this.

Silver is trending more towards industrial use however that may result in large gains once the price suppression is overtaken.

BTC has not really been tested but it has potential and unique advantages compared to gold. Also has several disadvantages.

[MMJB LLC]

I spend a decent amount of time in the “bitcoin” community and have never seen significant overlap between bitcoiners or “crypto” people and “preppers”

for sure bitcoiners generally do espouse a general sense of taking personal responsibility. But not to the point of being a prepper as far as I’ve seen

Funny because several of the crypto people I know also have some food stored away as well as a few other things. Maybe it depends on what a prepper is.Or maybe they were preppers adopting crypto...lol. I personally don't see how a community that espouses an alternative to the dollar or an escape hatch from that haven't taken into account the social implications that are associated with that transition.

[xraygoggles]

Saw this tweet which sums up the rigamarole pretty nicely:

"So BlockFi is a creditor to FTX that lent to Alameda that lent to Emergent which is a shell company owned by SBF that bought Robinhood shares that were pledged as collateral to guarantee to BlockFi the loan to FTX that was used to bailout BlockFi itself"

[Tim]

“So far, over time, more and more people have come to accept bitcoin as something of legitimate value.”

Momentum has definitely swung the other way. Less and less people have come to accept bitcoin as something of legitimate value.