Bitcoin is still early

[jacoavlu]

Oh really? https://xkcd.com/538/

the most common method of storage for a decent amount of funds designed to be held long term - "cold storage" - is as combination of seed phrase (12 or 24 words) plus passhphrase (which may also be words, or just 16 alphanumeric characters, or whatever you wish)

you back these up and you don't store them in the same place. Maybe you have a copy of one of these stored securely at your house, but not both

in this case someone literally can't take your bitcoin with a $5 wrench attack, because you couldn't give it to them even if you wanted to. you would need to go to another location, say a bank to access a safe deposit box. you get the idea

there are even more robust setups with multisignature storage solutions (like 3 of 5)

[xraygoggles]

there are many that feel this way

one of the reasons why people have tried to create “algorithmic stablecoins” which would hold a peg but not be centrally controlled and corruptible. But they have all failed spectacularly, see UST most recently

DAI exists tho - even survived covid crash.

[xraygoggles]

a powerful entity could take everything you have by force. they can't take your bitcoin by force. cryptography shifts the power dynamic

I'm not going to go back and forth with you any longer. Always happy to answer questions

One big flaw in the Bitcoin model is that the fees are very low - if that doesn't change, miners will be un-incentivized to continue in the future, and the hash rate would ultimately fall.

Either BTC has to go to a very high value for the fees to increase enough for miners to continue doing it profitably - or the fees have to be increased in some other manner, which I don't know how.

[jacoavlu]

DAI exists tho - even survived covid crash.

not really an algorithmic stablecoin when they’re putting the treasury in T bills and corp bonds.

[jacoavlu]

One big flaw in the Bitcoin model is that the fees are very low - if that doesn't change, miners will be un-incentivized to continue in the future, and the hash rate would ultimately fall.

Either BTC has to go to a very high value for the fees to increase enough for miners to continue doing it profitably - or the fees have to be increased in some other manner, which I don't know how.

the network hash rate is plenty high already to make cost of attacking the network too high for any entity, nation states included. But yes the “what happens after all coins are mined” is frequent topic of debate

[CM]

There is no yield to BTC and therefore not really an investment per se. I see the value in BTC as a way to store wealth/assets outside of the current financial system. I have come to the conclusion that having a few "plan Bs" is a good idea incase the current financial system has to be restructured.

Either way, I personally think valuation approaches died after 2008 when the world went to near zero/negative interest rates so even things that were considered conventional investments were not really "investments". Thanks for your consideration.

I don't see BTC as a store of value. I don't see that it has any value, but if there is something there, my best guess is that it is close to zero. If you're hedging against financial Armageddon, then your best bet is own things with intrinsic value, i.e., things people will always need: land and shelter, non-perishable food, commodities, etc. BTC wouldn't be on my list.

2008 was not unique. Valuation methods are the same now as before.

[ERRES2288]

I see bitcoin as being worth ALOT as a store of value similar to gold or worth virtually nothing. For the latter to be true we have a long way to go for adoption. However if there is even a chance of this then I don’t think it’s a bad bet to put 3-5% of your portfolio in it. Of course you could say that about individual stocks too so I don’t know. 97% of my portfolio is globally diversified factor based etfs from Avantis, DFA, AA. But 3% bitcoin, just in case

[Panscan]

I don’t understand a just in case 3%. That isn’t moving the needle at all unless it like 10x from here which is frankly just impossible. Your emotional energy and attention isn’t worth it for a tiny chunk like that.

[ERRES2288]

I don’t understand a just in case 3%. That isn’t moving the needle at all unless it like 10x from here which is frankly just impossible. Your emotional energy and attention isn’t worth it for a tiny chunk like that.

You think it’s impossible bitcoin could get to 160k? It was just at 70k. It’s crashed many times before. If it becomes a global store of value it will be much higher than 160k. Im looking at 30-50x from here. Do I think that is likely? ************************ no. Do I think it’s the only cryptocurrency that could rise like that and is a reasonable calculated bet? Yes.

Like I said I think Bitcoin is worth 500k-1m or 0. I don’t see much argument for the in between.

[Panscan]

And how did you arbitrarily decide upon 500k - 1M?

[ERRES2288]

And how did you arbitrarily decide upon 500k - 1M?

That’s about where it would end up if it was about 11-12T (market cap of gold) which would coincide with my idea of it being a global store of value.

[xraygoggles]

That’s about where it would end up if it was about 11-12T (market cap of gold) which would coincide with my idea of it being a global store of value.

yep, i've also said this before.

BTC is the digital version of gold, so if it reaches its physical gold market cap potential, it would cap out around that level, and its volatility would be similar to gold also at that level.

[xraygoggles]

not really an algorithmic stablecoin when they’re putting the treasury in T bills and corp bonds.

ya, but it was a pure algo stable at that point in march 2020

[burritos]

Do preppers imagine that when western society and the dollar collapses, they'll be the currency kings? They think that with their gold and crypto they'll be able to hoard guns, butter, trips to New zealand and buy barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia? Masses in anarchy will forgo the dollar and accept bitcoin/gold shavings? I don't think this will happen. It's possible but I think it's too Hollywood.

[Panscan]

That’s about where it would end up if it was about 11-12T (market cap of gold) which would coincide with my idea of it being a global store of value.

Stores of value need intrinsic value. We have to need them.

for btc to have the market cap of gold, gold would have to substantially decrease in value. Btc market cap is also not in any way shape or form actually real. It is hugely falsely elevated by the immense leverage which still exists and intrinsic ponzis via all these “institutions”, aka trailer park banks loaning each other money and then buying more crypto with it. The real market cap of all crypto is likely smaller by a factor of 10-20x. It is nowhere close to claimed and will never be anywhere close to gold.


As entities continue to blow up, net leverage will go down and will become regulated, not ever exceeding and approaching prior maxes. Binance and tether will go next as both are currently insolvent and ticking time bombs. 45% of binance holdings are in its own bs magic bean. It is eerily similar to ftx.

one big grift.