Bitcoin is still early

[Kamban]

this doesn’t make sense. Scarcity is a fundamental property of money. Feature not a bug

Do you honestly believe that 21 million bitcoins can be enough to become a world currency for daily use. Seriously?

That is a bug, not a feature. It is probably a great feature for investment value as scarcity causes increased demand and will cause prices to skyrocket. But as a substitute for dollars or euro, not a chance.

[StarTrekDoc]

This is why I consider bitcoin a hybrid gold equivalent vs a limited edition niche collectible item. While in the past currencies were tied to the actual worth of the coin; dropping the gold standard long ago uncoupled that and tied it to the faith, credit, and GDP and it's not going back until WWIII/alien invasion/dystopian aftermath.

This is also the reason why I'm not convinced in what it some aspire it to be - something COMMONLY tradable like monetary currency. It can be EASILY tradable, but probably not the best to be daily given the complexity of the safeguards in place and risk of exchanges holding large sums.

I can see exchanges acting more like title companies and holding bitcoin for large transactions and settling when funds/assets arise and clear out -- then charging a small fee to do that -- while holding LITTLE for any duration.

[jacoavlu]

Do you honestly believe that 21 million bitcoins can be enough to become a world currency for daily use. Seriously?

That is a bug, not a feature. It is probably a great feature for investment value as scarcity causes increased demand and will cause prices to skyrocket. But as a substitute for dollars or euro, not a chance.

the system uses 8 places after the decimal. So there are actually 2.1 quadrillion units

[fatlittlepig]

As to the title of this thread: bitcoin is feeling less and less “early” as time goes by and more and more passé and irrelevant.

[Outdoors]

There's a lot of misconceptions about what Bitcoin is. I think the best analogy for where we're at is just after the peak of the Dotcom Bubble when everything was collapsing. "World Wide Web" and "Internet Stocks" were all the rage, massive amounts of hype, that all went crashing down. That's basically where Bitcoin is right now.

People proclaim that Bitcoin is dead, while the developments coming out of the space are incredible.

Jeff Booth's analysis is really helpful for understanding exponential growth and Bitcoin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nw7lHXuzKo&t=155s

Or longer-form writing on the balance between Security, Decentralization, and Scalability:

https://medium.com/@JeffBooth/finding-signal-in-a-noisy-world-57497df06a35

[Brains428]

the system uses 8 places after the decimal. So there are actually 2.1 quadrillion units

This is where I would contest btc is deflationary. Stacking sats became a call to all those that couldn't afford a single coin. That changes it to inflationary- not terribly different than clipping gold coins and smelting them to increase money supply, or creating reserves at the fed.

I guess you're still limited to 2.1quadrillion. But its a lot more than 21MM.

[jacoavlu]

This is where I would contest btc is deflationary. Stacking sats became a call to all those that couldn't afford a single coin. That changes it to inflationary- not terribly different than clipping gold coins and smelting them to increase money supply, or creating reserves at the fed.

I guess you're still limited to 2.1quadrillion. But its a lot more than 21MM.

don’t follow.

if I give you $100 do you have 100 dollars or 10,000 pennies?

The numbers that Satoshi used aren’t of much importance. The important point is the inflation schedule and total supply are known and can’t be manipulated.

[xraygoggles]

This is where I would contest btc is deflationary. Stacking sats became a call to all those that couldn't afford a single coin. That changes it to inflationary- not terribly different than clipping gold coins and smelting them to increase money supply, or creating reserves at the fed.

I guess you're still limited to 2.1quadrillion. But its a lot more than 21MM.

No, I made this point before - you are not limited to just sats. Millisats, femtosats, et al. Infinitely divisible.

[jacoavlu]

No, I made this point before - you are not limited to just sats. Millisats, femtosats, et al. Infinitely divisible.

I’m not sure this is actually possible on the base layer.

[Tim]

Bingo...Penscan may not need Bitcoin right now (or ever)...but there are literally billions of people in the world that do.

Billions of people do not have a need for bitcoin. They have a need for relatively stable currencies and platforms and security for wealth.
Billions of people need much of the safeguards that "governments" are supposed to provide.

Local economies do not have a need for "global decentralize". What happens when "currencies" fail is a barter system. I produce this and you give me that. They don't need the volatility of and risk of loss due to the failure of the platforms. The complexity of the password authentication is not practical for billions of people.
Imagine the lines at the grocery store if everyone was digging out their passwords. Oh, you think the would not lose them? At least if you lose your wallet, you can cancel the credit cards.

[MMJB LLC]

People in Argentina want dollars, not Bitcoin. Bitcoin's exchange value is as volatile/unstable as the currency of any banana republic. Substitute "world's reserve currency" (for dollars) if things change in the future.

Ukrainians abroad can still spend their national currency. They don't need Bitcoin. If they were worried about their national currency, they'd be better off with dollars.

Are migrants all using Bitcoin to send money home, or are they still using Western Union and other time-honored means? If not using Bitcoin at this point, then that is not a compelling use for Bitcoin.

However, as above, this is hardly the point; you don't have an investment if you can't estimate the value of said investment.

CM, I enjoy your perspectives on this. I will take a variant perception on BTC/select alts. There is no yield to BTC and therefore not really an investment per se. I see the value in BTC as a way to store wealth/assets outside of the current financial system. I have come to the conclusion that having a few "plan Bs" is a good idea incase the current financial system has to be restructured. It is one of the few mechanisms around where one can weather something worse than 2008 and come out on the other side with some means to rebuild. Either way, I personally think valuation approaches died after 2008 when the world went to near zero/negative interest rates so even things that were considered conventional investments were not really "investments". Thanks for your consideration.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Billions of people do not have a need for bitcoin. They have a need for relatively stable currencies and platforms and security for wealth.
Billions of people need much of the safeguards that "governments" are supposed to provide.

Local economies do not have a need for "global decentralize". What happens when "currencies" fail is a barter system. I produce this and you give me that. They don't need the volatility of and risk of loss due to the failure of the platforms. The complexity of the password authentication is not practical for billions of people.
Imagine the lines at the grocery store if everyone was digging out their passwords. Oh, you think the would not lose them? At least if you lose your wallet, you can cancel the credit cards.

Tim,

We agree that billions of people have a need for stable currencies and security for wealth. Unfortunately the past thousands of years has proven that governments worldwide either 1) don't or 2) can't provide what they need.

We also agree that they do not need risk of loss due to the "failure of platforms".

But I don't think you are really up to date with your critique of the complexity of the password system. First of all, I can literally transfer you, the grocery store, Starbucks, or anyone else the value of Bitcoin/Satoshi's without using any passwords. Just like I can break out 20 bucks from my wallet and get a black coffee at Starbucks.

This problem is has already been fixed. Keeping your bitcoin on 2 different "wallets" is really no different than what we do right now. Usually I carry a couple hundred bucks cash and 2 credit cards with me at any one time. I also have a bank account, retirement accounts, real estate, equity funds etc etc that I store value.

With Bitcoins current technology you can easily keep 50 bucks (about 300,000 Sats) in a "hot wallet" or "exchange" so even if you lose your phone or get held up at gunpoint by someone, you could sacrifice these Sats. No big deal. If anyone wants to hold me up by gunpoint right now, I will gladly hand over the couple hundred bucks in cash that I hold. The other value I have stored will not be affected what so ever from losing 300,000 Sats or 50 bucks. The long term Bitcoin that I HODL will be just fine. That would be stored on your cold storage wallet that can only be accessed by using your seed phrase. There are many ways to back this up or ensure that it is not lost. Does it take a little extra work? Yes. But so does buying land, a house, or millions of dollars in equities. So people's concern about loss of funds or seed phrases etc is really just ignorance of what currently exists or laziness to not take responsibility for their wealth.

There are also things being developed right now to help out with the value storage in third world countries where they don't have the luxuries that we have in the US and the governments can't be trusted. Look up a new company called "Fedi". I'm not saying Fedi will be the end all solution for this (not an endorsement for Fedi). They may go under as a company. But they are developing an app to allow for dual custody in third world settings that will help people not lose their money. There are hundreds of other companies like Fedi working toward solutions to the problems you bring up. Some of them will fail. But technology is not going to stop advancing. So IMO people may as well try and learn about where it is going before blowing it off with statements like the above that are not only factually incorrect but also stuck in the present.

[Tim]

Tim,

We agree that billions of people have a need for stable currencies and security for wealth. Unfortunately the past thousands of years has proven that governments worldwide either 1) don't or 2) can't provide what they need.

We also agree that they do not need risk of loss due to the "failure of platforms".

But I don't think you are really up to date with your critique of the complexity of the password system. First of all, I can literally transfer you, the grocery store, Starbucks, or anyone else the value of Bitcoin/Satoshi's without using any passwords. Just like I can break out 20 bucks from my wallet and get a black coffee at Starbucks.

This problem is has already been fixed. Keeping your bitcoin on 2 different "wallets" is really no different than what we do right now. Usually I carry a couple hundred bucks cash and 2 credit cards with me at any one time. I also have a bank account, retirement accounts, real estate, equity funds etc etc that I store value.

With Bitcoins current technology you can easily keep 50 bucks (about 300,000 Sats) in a "hot wallet" or "exchange" so even if you lose your phone or get held up at gunpoint by someone, you could sacrifice these Sats. No big deal. If anyone wants to hold me up by gunpoint right now, I will gladly hand over the couple hundred bucks in cash that I hold. The other value I have stored will not be affected what so ever from losing 300,000 Sats or 50 bucks. The long term Bitcoin that I HODL will be just fine. That would be stored on your cold storage wallet that can only be accessed by using your seed phrase. There are many ways to back this up or ensure that it is not lost. Does it take a little extra work? Yes. But so does buying land, a house, or millions of dollars in equities. So people's concern about loss of funds or seed phrases etc is really just ignorance of what currently exists or laziness to not take responsibility for their wealth.

There are also things being developed right now to help out with the value storage in third world countries where they don't have the luxuries that we have in the US and the governments can't be trusted. Look up a new company called "Fedi". I'm not saying Fedi will be the end all solution for this (not an endorsement for Fedi). They may go under as a company. But they are developing an app to allow for dual custody in third world settings that will help people not lose their money. There are hundreds of other companies like Fedi working toward solutions to the problems you bring up. Some of them will fail. But technology is not going to stop advancing. So IMO people may as well try and learn about where it is going before blowing it off with statements like the above that are not only factually incorrect but also stuck in the present.

Boots on the ground. Going to Mexico the week after Thanksgiving. Traveling through Eagle Pass. If by chance I have to hand over the "hot wallet" to some Cartel gentlemen, what do you think the chances are they will not connect the dots and politely ask for the rest? Yes, ransom requests with a "hot wallet" might actually be a painful lesson, "Hey, got anymore?" would seem to be the very next question. They might even let my wife go to retrieve it Non traceable wealth is very valuable south of the border with the gentlemen. I hope my wife doesn't just decline to pay the ransom.

You are right, personal security is more important than money. You gave me an idea, I will plant the cold wallet in the MIL's stuff. Who me? Don't have a clue what your are talking about.

Billions of people have absolutely no clue about what you are talking about. That is a fact.
Bitcoin is not widely accepted buy billions of people as a transaction currency, a stable store or wealth or as a non correlated asset with a stable value. So please refrain from that the "story" or "vision" represents boots on the ground. It is not the reality today.

[jacoavlu]

Boots on the ground. Going to Mexico the week after Thanksgiving. Traveling through Eagle Pass. If by chance I have to hand over the "hot wallet" to some Cartel gentlemen, what do you think the chances are they will not connect the dots and politely ask for the rest? Yes, ransom requests with a "hot wallet" might actually be a painful lesson, "Hey, got anymore?" would seem to be the very next question. They might even let my wife go to retrieve it Non traceable wealth is very valuable south of the border with the gentlemen. I hope my wife doesn't just decline to pay the ransom.

You are right, personal security is more important than money. You gave me an idea, I will plant the cold wallet in the MIL's stuff. Who me? Don't have a clue what your are talking about.

Billions of people have absolutely no clue about what you are talking about. That is a fact.
Bitcoin is not widely accepted buy billions of people as a transaction currency, a stable store or wealth or as a non correlated asset with a stable value. So please refrain from that the "story" or "vision" represents boots on the ground. It is not the reality today.

a powerful entity could take everything you have by force. they can't take your bitcoin by force. cryptography shifts the power dynamic

I'm not going to go back and forth with you any longer. Always happy to answer questions

[Hank]

a powerful entity could take everything you have by force. they can't take your bitcoin by force. cryptography shifts the power dynamic

Oh really? https://xkcd.com/538/