Bitcoin is still early

[jacoavlu]

what has Btc done in the time you’ve speculated ? Much less than 4400%.

it’s huge survivor bias, akin to taking something that use to be a penny stock and now made it big. Like ark, most Btc investors have lost money and are basically worse off for finding it. A few early people continue to dump bags on retail. This is the way the world works, venture capital is basically same concept. Secure bags cheaply, pump bags, dump(IPO) on retail.

the thing is, if it was long-held coins being liquidated causing market dump, that would be evident from on chain data. That’s not the case.

Venture capital didn’t make a ton of money in bitcoin. That’s why they invest in and promote shitcoins.

recent happenings should help educate folks that bitcoin and “crypto” really are different. Maybe it won’t. Perception is reality and all that. But it should

I sleep ok at night with my bitcoin held in self custody and zero exposure to shitcoins and counterparty risk

[xraygoggles]

the thing is, if it was long-held coins being liquidated causing market dump, that would be evident from on chain data. That’s not the case.

Venture capital didn’t make a ton of money in bitcoin. That’s why they invest in and promote shitcoins.

recent happenings should help educate folks that bitcoin and “crypto” really are different. Maybe it won’t. Perception is reality and all that. But it should

I sleep ok at night with my bitcoin held in self custody and zero exposure to shitcoins and counterparty risk

Recent poopshow via FTX is bullish for bitcoin and DeFi protocols tbh

[jacoavlu]

Recent poopshow via FTX is bullish for bitcoin and DeFi protocols tbh

agree

the issue with “defi” that’s becoming more apparent is 1) there is no yield without significant risk of 100% loss and 2) decentralization is meaningless if the base layer tokens the system mostly runs on like USDC and ETH and USDT are captured and will bend the knee and freeze tokens under state pressure

[GIMD]

I will get my BTC out of Robinhood by the end of this year. I want to see if BTC drops some more by then so I can tax loss harvest prior to moving BTC to a wallet. Robinhood does a good job keeping record of your crypto transactions for tax purposes and as others have mentioned, there is no wash sale rule so I can sell/buy back immediately to lower my cost basis. What's wrong with Coinbase Wallet? I don't mean Coinbase but I'm using Coinbase Wallet, a self-custodial wallet. I have my passphrase to completely control my BTC in this wallet. Coinbase cannot touch my BTC nor will my BTC be affected should Coinbase files bankruptcy. I don't mind having my BTCs sit in this kind of hot wallet for a while until I have a good plan for a cold wallet like Ledger. I guess someone can hack into Coinbase Wallet but that would be a lower chance than a random housecleaner finding my passphrase/cold wallet if I don't have an absolute safe plan to tuck these away.

GIMD - Please get your stuff off of Robinhood. Ledger is good and very easy to work with. Trezor and Cold Card are a couple others. With the Cold Card you can even order dice to make sure your passphrases are not compromised when being made. The level of security is insane. But Cold Card is not as user friendly. So start with Ledger. Don't use Coinbase IMO!

[jacoavlu]

I will get my BTC out of Robinhood by the end of this year. I want to see if BTC drops some more by then so I can tax loss harvest prior to moving BTC to a wallet. Robinhood does a good job keeping record of your crypto transactions for tax purposes and as others have mentioned, there is no wash sale rule so I can sell/buy back immediately to lower my cost basis. What's wrong with Coinbase Wallet? I don't mean Coinbase but I'm using Coinbase Wallet, a self-custodial wallet. I have my passphrase to completely control my BTC in this wallet. Coinbase cannot touch my BTC nor will my BTC be affected should Coinbase files bankruptcy. I don't mind having my BTCs sit in this kind of hot wallet for a while until I have a good plan for a cold wallet like Ledger. I guess someone can hack into Coinbase Wallet but that would be a lower chance than a random housecleaner finding my passphrase/cold wallet if I don't have an absolute safe plan to tuck these away.

I honestly don’t know about coinbase wallet. Is it truly self custody in that you and only you have your private keys and if you lose your keys you lose your coins?

you should know your basis and have records to demonstrate this. Don’t rely on robinhood or whatever. Take responsibility

Be careful. risk happens fast. A lot of people have painfully learned this recently.

I previously held funds on celsius and blockfi. If I still did those funds would basically be zero. Thankfully I exited quite a while ago.

but there are posts from me on this forum that read at present day pretty embarrassing with what we know now. I’ve gone on quite a journey in the past 2-3 years. Never went back to those old threads. But those custodians that I thought were ok are not in a good place. Maybe it wasn’t all their fault? Don’t matter. Users got rekt.

[xraygoggles]

But those custodians that I thought were ok are not in a good place. Maybe it wasn’t all their fault? Don’t matter. Users got rekt.

The entire crypto space is very incestuous, with everyone borrowing and lending to each other. So when Terra/Luna - a literal Ponzi algo stablecoin - collapsed, it took everything with it, including 3AC and all the big players we know about. But that was also most likely the provenance of FTX's (via Alameda's) insolvency. I would not be surprised if Binance also got rekt, but have staved off any bank runs (so far). There is likely a LOT of contagion hidden underneath this epic FTX self-immolation that we do not know of yet.

[xraygoggles]

agree

the issue with “defi” that’s becoming more apparent is 1) there is no yield without significant risk of 100% loss and 2) decentralization is meaningless if the base layer tokens the system mostly runs on like USDC and ETH and USDT are captured and will bend the knee and freeze tokens under state pressure

Well that may be true for some of them but I meant actual DeFi protocols that do not need any token for them to function.

Uniswap for ex works fine before and after FTX - completely unaffected.

[jacoavlu]

The entire crypto space is very incestuous, with everyone borrowing and lending to each other. So when Terra/Luna - a literal Ponzi algo stablecoin - collapsed, it took everything with it, including 3AC and all the big players we know about. But that was also most likely the provenance of FTX's (via Alameda's) insolvency. I would not be surprised if Binance also got rekt, but have staved off any bank runs (so far). There is likely a LOT of contagion hidden underneath this epic FTX self-immolation that we do not know of yet.

100%

[jacoavlu]

Well that may be true for some of them but I meant actual DeFi protocols that do not need any token for them to function.

Uniswap for ex works fine before and after FTX - completely unaffected.

yeah I know very little about defi

but like what do they do? In terms of real utility?

[GIMD]

Yes, I've done my homework and transferred a small fraction of BTC to Coinbase Wallet to test. It is a true self-custodial wallet so if I lose my 12 word passphrase, I will lose those BTCs forever. Coinbase confirmed this.

I never trusted those crypto only exchanges. People poke fun at Robinhood but I would trust Robinhood solvency and practice over Binance, Genesis, etc. anytime. Robinhood is a public company and an investment firm much like Etrade, TDAmeritrade. I think only 15% of their revenues come from crypto and they have very limited crypto offers so they are not as exposed to the downside risk when crypto crashes like these crypto exchanges that operate in the shadows.

I honestly don’t know about coinbase wallet. Is it truly self custody in that you and only you have your private keys and if you lose your keys you lose your coins?

you should know your basis and have records to demonstrate this. Don’t rely on robinhood or whatever. Take responsibility

Be careful. risk happens fast. A lot of people have painfully learned this recently.

I previously held funds on celsius and blockfi. If I still did those funds would basically be zero. Thankfully I exited quite a while ago.

but there are posts from me on this forum that read at present day pretty embarrassing with what we know now. I’ve gone on quite a journey in the past 2-3 years. Never went back to those old threads. But those custodians that I thought were ok are not in a good place. Maybe it wasn’t all their fault? Don’t matter. Users got rekt.

[jacoavlu]

Yes, I've done my homework and transferred a small fraction of BTC to Coinbase Wallet to test. It is a true self-custodial wallet so if I lose my 12 word passphrase, I will lose those BTCs forever. Coinbase confirmed this.

I never trusted those crypto only exchanges. People poke fun at Robinhood but I would trust Robinhood solvency and practice over Binance, Genesis, etc. anytime. Robinhood is a public company and an investment firm much like Etrade, TDAmeritrade. I think only 15% of their revenues come from crypto and they have very limited crypto offers so they are not as exposed to the downside risk when crypto crashes like these crypto exchanges that operate in the shadows.

voyager was a public traded company as well

in 2021 dogecoin trading was a significant percent of robinhood revenue. Couldn’t find 2022 numbers with a very quick google search.

anyway there is zero logic to leave your coins on robinhood other than laziness. An on chain transaction isn’t a taxable event.

Pretty sure SBF purchased an equity investment in Robinhood

you’ve been warned

[The White Coat Investor]

I've already answered this a few pages back Jim...But I assume you don't have the time to look back. But lets use your 10 year dates. Over the past 10 years BTC has a 4,400% return. Dow Jones over the same 10 years has approx 270% return. At what point do you say whoops? 10 more years of huge underperformance? 15? 100?

When people are spending Bitcoin preferentially to dollars I'll probably buy some. But as an investment? 100 years of underperformance probably wouldn't change my mind. Gold has a record thousands of years long and I still don't buy it.

[NapoleanDynamite]

I feel pretty safe in this prediction, one or the other will do better. Man, did you see that one coming?

My crystal ball sees the same thing Tim. I find it highly unlikely that they will perform exactly the same over the next 10-20 years.

[NapoleanDynamite]

When people are spending Bitcoin preferentially to dollars I'll probably buy some. But as an investment? 100 years of underperformance probably wouldn't change my mind. Gold has a record thousands of years long and I still don't buy it.

Gold I understand. While I disagree from a strictly investment perspective as it has definitely had many years where it significantly outperformed the Dow and S/P 500, it is not very portable and difficult to store. IMO most high net worth individuals should have a small allocation of Gold. But I don't own any Gold at this point. If it weren't for Bitcoin I probably would.

But OK. So you are willing to suffer through 100 years of theoretical underperformance. I am not.

And who knows...you might need to use it as a currency one day. If that day comes, I will be exceedingly wealthy and I will buy you a new Wakeboard for your boat. If Bitcoin dies or trades sideways for the next 10 years you can buy me some new skis for my future Condo/house in Deer Valley or Breckenridge. You down with the reverse bet? Winner pays? Some real first world problems here

[The White Coat Investor]

Gold I understand. While I disagree from a strictly investment perspective as it has definitely had many years where it significantly outperformed the Dow and S/P 500, it is not very portable and difficult to store. IMO most high net worth individuals should have a small allocation of Gold. But I don't own any Gold at this point. If it weren't for Bitcoin I probably would.

But OK. So you are willing to suffer through 100 years of theoretical underperformance. I am not.

And who knows...you might need to use it as a currency one day. If that day comes, I will be exceedingly wealthy and I will buy you a new Wakeboard for your boat. If Bitcoin dies or trades sideways for the next 10 years you can buy me some new skis for my future Condo/house in Deer Valley or Breckenridge. You down with the reverse bet? Winner pays? Some real first world problems here

No big deal. If it gets used a currency, my stocks will pay dividends in Bitcoin. My bonds will pay interest in Bitcoin. My real estate will pay rents in Bitcoin. We'll get paid in Bitcoin when we sell WCI books, courses, and conferences. My wealth isn't tied up in dollars. It's tied up in things that make money. If the money becomes Bitcoin instead of dollars, we'll be just fine. Now you might get a huge windfall from that, but that doesn't mean that I'll be hurt by it. Remember I already have more money than I'll ever spend.

But if Bitcoin hits $100K next year, you can get me this:

https://www.the-house.com/pht57ridzz-phase-five-wakesurfers

and I'll pick you up at your condo in Deer Valley and take you out on the Jordanelle Reservoir and you can take the first ride on it.