Bitcoin is still early

[Tim]

kinda the point. wouldnt a money that can't be manipulated - one that is incorruptible, permissionless, and outside of the control of any central authority - be good?

The manipulation was outside of the central authorities.
Silver Thursday
Soros- Bank of England
“one that is incorruptible, permissionless, and outside of the control”
There seems to be a little confusion on my part. This means it is impossible to be stolen or scammed or manipulated.
Central authorities are just people. Certainly a group of people outside of central authorities can corrupt anything.
And, central authorities can just ban it and make it illegal. Not saying what is going to happen, just that the picture you paint, doesn’t exist. No guarantee it will.

[NapoleanDynamite]

You don't think it's possible to break down sats to centisats, millisats, microsats, nanosats, picosats, femtosats et al?

You and Frances Coppola would get along well.

If we ever need to break sats down to centisats or millisats, I will be one of the wealthiest people in the world. You do realize that current value of 1 Satoshi is around 2/100's of 1 Penny? So feel free to go hog wild with your 1 CentiSat.

[NapoleanDynamite]

so basically you're saying I could have to listen to the BTC is early noise for the rest of my life? and even if BTC is still $20k at that point the true believers will still say we just haven't waited long enough? That there is no measurable point at which they could acknowledge the possibility of error, because as long as BTC hasn't completely failed, there's always a chance? even if as an investment it has been complete and utter garbage by that time?

There is no world that Bitcoin will still be priced at $20K in 10-20 years. It doesn't exist. I will either be valued far less (zero or close to zero), or far more. If it is valued far less, 10-20 years from now, then it is a failed project. As I said above, if there is adoption, price will follow. This is simple math.

[FIREshrink]

There is no world that Bitcoin will still be priced at $20K in 10-20 years. It doesn't exist. I will either be valued far less (zero or close to zero), or far more. If it is valued far less, 10-20 years from now, then it is a failed project. As I said above, if there is adoption, price will follow. This is simple math.

BTC was $20k five years ago. it's $20k today.. If it's $20k in five more years, that's ten years. I think that's an entirely possible outcome. is it a failed "project" then? what about ten years from now, fifteen years of zero appreciation in total? In hope you can say more than, "It's not possible." Is that a failure, or is that not enough time?

[NapoleanDynamite]

BTC was $20k five years ago. it's $20k today.. If it's $20k in five more years, that's ten years. I think that's an entirely possible outcome. is it a failed "project" then? what about ten years from now, fifteen years of zero appreciation in total? In hope you can say more than, "It's not possible." Is that a failure, or is that not enough time?

You have to be kidding? You are comparing the high bitcoin price from 2017 (which lasted only a day or two) with the current price? Ok...lets compare apples to potatoes then .

The Price of Bitcoin was only above 15K for about 2 weeks in 2017. From 2017 until 2020 the price ranged from about 3K to 10K >95% of the time. Since 2020 it has ranged from 10K to 69K. At least attempt to be intellectually honest if you are going to try and make a point.

[Panscan]

Going to zero

[jacoavlu]

Going to zero

I like your confidence. Curious though, you really did a 180 in a short time span. I mean you started the defi/altcoin thread and were buying all kinds of stuff like just last year. What happened?

[NapoleanDynamite]

I like your confidence. Curious though, you really did a 180 in a short time span. I mean you started the defi/altcoin thread and were buying all kinds of stuff like just last year. What happened?

I like his/her/their confidence as well. Like I tell everyone that is so confident about it going to zero....Short it. You can laugh at me all the way to the bank. Of course................

[Panscan]

I like his/her/their confidence as well. Like I tell everyone that is so confident about it going to zero....Short it. You can laugh at me all the way to the bank. Of course................

How can I short it ? In my state there isn’t an easy way and I have no desire of filling the coffers of scam exchanges such as FTX that trade against their “ customers.” Also I just don’t need to short it and have limitless risk. I am fortunate to be a highly compensated professional who can just dca index funds and be fine unless our whole economy collapses.

jaco, my simple answer would be unbridled ideology. I saw how it’s a mostly cult of scammers and get rich quick people mixed. I think you’re more reasonable but unfortunately a significant rarity amongst crypto folks.

[jacoavlu]

How can I short it ?

there’s a -1x short ETF - BITI

which is funny bc sec won’t even approve a spot bitcoin etf

[MMJB LLC]

Not a liquidity crisis. Credit markets are completely stable and open.
Now valuation, inflation and interest rates is a completely different discussion.

I don't know how else to tell you this but there is a liquidity crisis occurring. The 2nd half of your own post gives indicators that a liquidity crisis is going on...just think about it. If you don't believe that, then just this week, the BoE had to reverse QT in less than 1 month because the UK pension system was at risk of failure. Some well known banks are on the edge of failure...CS, DB...maybe Barclays....for now. This week some well run banks were having trouble sourcing CP.
We are moving from a liquidity crisis to a possible solvency crisis. Please, for the love of God, have an open mind to these facts. It could mean the difference between surviving and ruin.

[Tim]

I don't know how else to tell you this but there is a liquidity crisis occurring. The 2nd half of your own post gives indicators that a liquidity crisis is going on...just think about it. If you don't believe that, then just this week, the BoE had to reverse QT in less than 1 month because the UK pension system was at risk of failure. Some well known banks are on the edge of failure...CS, DB...maybe Barclays....for now. This week some well run banks were having trouble sourcing CP.
We are moving from a liquidity crisis to a possible solvency crisis. Please, for the love of God, have an open mind to these facts. It could mean the difference between surviving and ruin.

“Now valuation, inflation and interest rates is a completely different discussion. “ Repeat.
Many different flavors. Asset valuation and inflation are dangerous too. The credit markets are completely open. Some entities will fail, not because credit markets were closed, but because mostly valuations and interest rates. This is called a recession or depression. It sucks.

Assets devaluation and the cost of credit increases. Of course entities will fail. What is causing this? Fiscal policies, and that leads to political discussions and a whole slew of emotional issues.

[jacoavlu]

What is causing this? Fiscal policies, and that leads to political discussions and a whole slew of emotional issues.

wait, I thought you said it wasn’t central authorities that manipulated currencies?

do you think QE is “manipulation”?

[Tim]

wait, I thought you said it wasn’t central authorities that manipulated currencies?

do you think QE is “manipulation”?

Pick your poison.! Some political policies are terrible.

[MMJB LLC]

“Now valuation, inflation and interest rates is a completely different discussion. “ Repeat.
Many different flavors. Asset valuation and inflation are dangerous too. The credit markets are completely open. Some entities will fail, not because credit markets were closed, but because mostly valuations and interest rates. This is called a recession or depression. It sucks.

Assets devaluation and the cost of credit increases. Of course entities will fail. What is causing this? Fiscal policies, and that leads to political discussions and a whole slew of emotional issues.

I think several things in this post are being confused/conflated. Interest rates are a sign of credit stress. In simple terms, there is not a lot of liquidity, an entity has to offer a higher interest rate in order to get some one to buy their debt. This week, several entities couldnt get anyone to buy their debt at certain time.

Or, even easier, j \ust look at the 10y UST yield: it rose 100bp in ~1 month nominally and a 50% rise in real terms. Unreal. Moves that would previously have taken year(s).

Its not a short term fiscal issue, that is just a catalyst. These are structural problems that have been there since at least the '80s and some would argue 1971.

You don't have to take my word for it, just google "credit market stress" and you will see there are serious issues in the credit market this past week.

Please consider this alternative viewpoint. I will pray for you.