Bitcoin is still early

[NapoleanDynamite]

It's already reached it's saturation point IMO - in fact, I don't even know if it will ever surpass 69k from last bull cycle - that was a once-in-a-lifetime firehouse of liquidity never to be replicated again.

But I also don't think it will ever go to zero - it's already entrenched in the futures, options, and perp markets so there will always be traders keeping the price within a set range for the most part.

Plus, Sam Bankman-Fried is the Powell of crypto now - he is the "Crypto Put" in times of duress. Ditto CZ of Binance.

None of this will hold up well.

If you think Bitocin has already reached it's "saturation" point, you have no idea what you are talking about. This is an incredibly ethnocentric, US focused comment. Increase your time preference. We are so early.

[xraygoggles]

None of this will hold up well.

If you think Bitocin has already reached it's "saturation" point, you have no idea what you are talking about. This is an incredibly ethnocentric, US focused comment. Increase your time preference. We are so early.

I hate to break it to you, but something that has 20,000x since inception is no longer "early" - think about it: BTC has been adopted, to a certain extent, by some govts, billion dollar companies, hedge funds, & institutions already. How can we be early? Because some folks in failing countries will buy 1,000 sats?

[NapoleanDynamite]

I hate to break it to you, but something that has 20,000x since inception is no longer "early" - think about it: BTC has been adopted, to a certain extent, by some govts, billion dollar companies, hedge funds, & institutions already. How can we be early? Because some folks in failing countries will buy 1,000 sats?

Well we agree on one thing...One of us is going to look really stupid in 10-15 years.

[FIREshrink]

None of this will hold up well.

If you think Bitocin has already reached it's "saturation" point, you have no idea what you are talking about. This is an incredibly ethnocentric, US focused comment. Increase your time preference. We are so early.

seems to me you will continue to say we are early for a long time, or until BTC does something impressive, whichever comes first.

Can you name a date/year at which time you promise to stop saying we are early?

[Tim]

seems to me you will continue to say we are early for a long time, or until BTC does something impressive, whichever comes first.

Can you name a date/year at which time you promise to stop saying we are early?

Need to specify price points as well.
BTC is at 19k. Which will come first, $20k or $15k? In 10 to 15 years what is the price prediction? You need an exit point or do you hold forever?

[NapoleanDynamite]

seems to me you will continue to say we are early for a long time, or until BTC does something impressive, whichever comes first.

Can you name a date/year at which time you promise to stop saying we are early?

I cannot name a date/time when that will occur. I don't know if WWIII has already started and in the next 5-10 years the entire global financial/power system is totally restructured.

However, I will stop saying it when BTC either fails, or it has been more adopted globally. Right now approx 1-2% of the global population holds/uses Bitcoin. By any definition of adoption/adoption curves, this would still be considered early. I personally think a lot of this adoption will occur over the next 10 years. But I also tend to be very early with my opinions on these things. So who knows...it may take another 20-50 years.

To answer the second question by Tim, I think price will reflect adoption, but I also think that price could go very high very quickly and we could still be early. At 69K people didn't realize how early we were IMO. They still don't. So if it gets to 100K or 1M we could still be early by my definition (less likely at 1M).

There are 7.5 Billion people on the planet (Only about half of those with access to the internet). Rough estimates suggests that there are between 50M and 100M people globally that currently even hold Bitcoin, much less use it. So that leaves about 3.7 (7.5 minus 100M minus those without internet) Billion people to adopt it assuming the other half don't get better internet access over the next 10 years (a bad assumption IMO). When the estimates of the number of people using Bitcoin approaches 1 Billion, or it has failed as a technology I will stop saying we are early. How about that?

[NapoleanDynamite]

Need to specify price points as well.
BTC is at 19k. Which will come first, $20k or $15k? In 10 to 15 years what is the price prediction? You need an exit point or do you hold forever?

Forgot to answer the second question...My exit point is Bitcoin.

Meaning, I expect to be using it as currency to pay for things. I will "exit" my position totally when I have had to spend it all as a currency. Again, maybe I am wrong.

Also, maybe I want that private jet and will exit part of my position when I can afford it. But I have no plans to exit all of the position in my life. I plan to pass on the vast majority of my Bitcoin to my children and my charities when I die. It will be far more valuable to them.

I have enough...enough Bitcoin...enough money...enough real estate, enough stuff. (except the private jet of course ) The last thing I spend will be my bitcoin.

[jacoavlu]

Need to specify price points as well.
BTC is at 19k. Which will come first, $20k or $15k? In 10 to 15 years what is the price prediction? You need an exit point or do you hold forever?

No serious person cares. this type of stuff doesn’t matter with regards to a long term investment in anything else. SP500. BND. Whatever. So why does it matter for bitcoin? Strawman stuff

[jacoavlu]

I don’t know if we’re early on price. I think price is uninteresting and I don’t make price predictions

But with regard to most everything else around bitcoin yeah I think we’re still early.

The UX isn’t great. To put it mildly it can be intimidating and technically challenging and scary. There is a lot of room for improvement. Grandma isn’t using bitcoin any time soon

its not easy to use privately. There are a lot of negative aspects to all transactions being on a public ledger. This affects even normal honest users. Not just criminals

Integration to “tradfi” is still early. Maybe it never happens. But if you’ve ever actually used bitcoin or even other crypto like stablecoins to transmit value it can be pretty amazing, such as compared to the experience of an international wire transfer or verifiable payment to an unknown third party. You can do this with no permission from a bank or whatever required

Much improvement needed in custodians. Probably a minority of people will actually hold their own coins. So custody providers need to mature. Again UX improvement needed.

Lots of room for growth in mining especially small scale. Tons of potential for heat re use from asics. If I can have an 85F garage in the winter with heat from an asic that earns me enough bitcoin to offset the electric cost to run the machine, this is win win. Lots of room for deeper integration to heat applications like HVAC, water heaters, pools, greenhouses etc

Lots of room for monetization and release of stranded energy which again can be a win win. Stranded methane that’s being flared. Stranded hydro potential without immediate nearby population that would support buildout of the generation infrastructure. Small modular nuclear that requires a lot of up front capex. Solar and electric that is producing during times of low energy demand. Huge potential in energy

early in state approach. Lots of deficiency in regulatory clarity. Is it a security? Is it property? Is it a commodity? Is it a currency?

early in second layer solutions. Lightning network is cool but needs a lot of improvement. Micropayments ability is really cool. Current tech (visa, venmo, PayPal etc) and associated fees make this unfeasible. But bitcoin over lightning works. A content creator can charge 10 cents to read a blog post and can receive these types of payments without fees. Or a penny for every 10 seconds of a podcast listen. A listener can add a little “boost” payment to a section of a podcast they enjoy and the creator gets that feedback. Consumers can give value for the value that they receive and creators can monetize their product in a different way than the tradition ad supported model that often creates conflicts of interest (such as this website and all the RE stuff)

I’m sure there’s more im not thinking about

[FIREshrink]

so basically you're saying I could have to listen to the BTC is early noise for the rest of my life? and even if BTC is still $20k at that point the true believers will still say we just haven't waited long enough? That there is no measurable point at which they could acknowledge the possibility of error, because as long as BTC hasn't completely failed, there's always a chance? even if as an investment it has been complete and utter garbage by that time?

[jacoavlu]

so basically you're saying I could have to listen to the BTC is early noise for the rest of my life? and even if BTC is still $20k at that point the true believers will still say we just haven't waited long enough? That there is no measurable point at which they could acknowledge the possibility of error, because as long as BTC hasn't completely failed, there's always a chance? even if as an investment it has been complete and utter garbage by that time?

I’m not sure if you’re responding to me or not?

But obviously you don’t have to listen to any noise at all, at least here. I mean you can just not click the thread right? It’s not as if the forum is dominated by crypto talk these days.

and at least me personally, I’m certainly not denying any possibility of error, especially with regard to price. It could go up or down. Nobody knows nothing. I’ve said this all along. Long term I think it goes up but I could be wrong.

i just think the price talk is uninteresting. And I say this to both proponents and contrarians alike

[HikingDO]

Tulip bulbs are still early too.

[jacoavlu]

Tulip bulbs are still early too.

youre 9 years late on the reference

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/5-reasons-i-dont-invest-in-bitcoins/

[HikingDO]

youre 9 years late on the reference

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/5-reasons-i-dont-invest-in-bitcoins/

No, it’s as relevant as ever today.

[Tim]

No serious person cares. this type of stuff doesn’t matter with regards to a long term investment in anything else. SP500. BND. Whatever. So why does it matter for bitcoin? Strawman stuff

It matters if it is up or down and approximate returns. I use 5% SP500 over 30-50 years.
Even an R&D project (sunk costs) needs to show progress towards and eventual payoff. Even the potential market size matters. Money to burn, light a match to the strawman. Not to confuse accuracy with precision, I will accept that.

In investing , typically the higher the risk the shorter the time frame and higher the return possible.

This is speculation, not investing. It does matter for the S&P500 or that completely changes the game.