Bitcoin is still early

[jacoavlu]

since this thread started bitcoin is up 35%, SP500 is up 6%, Nasdaq is down 8%, gold is down 12%, VXUS is down 14%, and yield on 10y treasuries went from 0.75 to 3.75


bitcoin isn’t “supposed to do” anything other than run as designed and basically never change, which is exactly what is happening. Permissionless, blocks every 10 minutes on average, fixed supply cap and inflation schedule

[MMJB LLC]

since this thread started bitcoin is up 35%, SP500 is up 6%, Nasdaq is down 8%, gold is down 12%, VXUS is down 14%, and yield on 10y treasuries went from 0.75 to 3.75


bitcoin isn’t “supposed to do” anything other than run as designed and basically never change, which is exactly what is happening. Permissionless, blocks every 10 minutes on average, fixed supply cap and inflation schedule

Biggest caveat here is that there is no data on how Bitcoin (and crypto in general) fares in a financial collapse and/or depression? My second biggest caveat is that all transactions can be tracked. This isn't anonymous transactions, it's pseudonymous.

[jacoavlu]

Biggest caveat here is that there is no data on how Bitcoin (and crypto in general) fares in a financial collapse and/or depression? My second biggest caveat is that all transactions can be tracked. This isn't anonymous transactions, it's pseudonymous.

i would approach an investment in bitcoin just like anything else - accumulate via periodic investing / DCA, long term buy and hold only, as part of a diversified portfolio with a thoughtful asset allocation, keep your costs low, control your taxes as much as possible, etc

lots of folks here present a strawman argument around short term price swings and volatility, when we don’t concern ourselves with that stuff in any other part of our investments


regarding anonymity this is true, and one significant challenge that bitcoin faces. It’s
not easy to use bitcoin or most any other crypto anonymously, because most everyone is going to acquire their coins from a regulated exchange that follows strict KYC requirements. There are ways to acquire KYC free or KYC-lite coins, but it’s not exactly easy. you can gain forward anonymity with collaborative transactions like coinjoins

[CordMcNally]

Biggest caveat here is that there is no data on how Bitcoin (and crypto in general) fares in a financial collapse and/or depression? My second biggest caveat is that all transactions can be tracked. This isn't anonymous transactions, it's pseudonymous.

What fares the best during a financial collapse and/or depression? My guess is it would be skills and goods.

[MMJB LLC]

What fares the best during a financial collapse and/or depression? My guess is it would be skills and goods.

In his diary of the great depression, Benjamin Roth noted that manufacturing jobs came back much faster than the professional class (doctors, lawyers) so "skills" may or may not be important. Not saying that manufacturing jobs don't require skills but my guess is that many on here equate skills with some type of professional job. Also, many of the manufacturing jobs have already been exported as we now have a service based economy. I have no idea how a service based economy performs during this depression but services can't really be exported from the US unless we want a significant hit to the average quality of life here.
As for goods, depends on what is a good that you need and what is a good that you want or have. Food, energy, etc may be good to have. That second home, that boat etc maybe not so much. And my guess is that many equate the goods to something digital and not physical (GLD is not gold, REITs are not real estate, etc).

[bovie]

In his diary of the great depression, Benjamin Roth noted that manufacturing jobs came back much faster than the professional class (doctors, lawyers) so "skills" may or may not be important.

Our economy has a slightly different structure than it did in 1929. Just saying.

[Zaphod]

In his diary of the great depression, Benjamin Roth noted that manufacturing jobs came back much faster than the professional class (doctors, lawyers) so "skills" may or may not be important. Not saying that manufacturing jobs don't require skills but my guess is that many on here equate skills with some type of professional job. Also, many of the manufacturing jobs have already been exported as we now have a service based economy. I have no idea how a service based economy performs during this depression but services can't really be exported from the US unless we want a significant hit to the average quality of life here.
As for goods, depends on what is a good that you need and what is a good that you want or have. Food, energy, etc may be good to have. That second home, that boat etc maybe not so much. And my guess is that many equate the goods to something digital and not physical (GLD is not gold, REITs are not real estate, etc).

I suspect your take is opposite to what was intended and exactly in line with your explanation.

[CordMcNally]

In his diary of the great depression, Benjamin Roth noted that manufacturing jobs came back much faster than the professional class (doctors, lawyers) so "skills" may or may not be important. Not saying that manufacturing jobs don't require skills but my guess is that many on here equate skills with some type of professional job.

Sometimes I think actually showing up on time and working hard are skills. In a world filled with financial catastrophe and depression like you describe, the most important skills likely won’t be what we consider professional skills. Growing food, building things, etc.

[xraygoggles]

since this thread started bitcoin is up 35%, SP500 is up 6%, Nasdaq is down 8%, gold is down 12%, VXUS is down 14%, and yield on 10y treasuries went from 0.75 to 3.75


bitcoin isn’t “supposed to do” anything other than run as designed and basically never change, which is exactly what is happening. Permissionless, blocks every 10 minutes on average, fixed supply cap and inflation schedule

bitcoin has also never existed without a secular bull market - it was literally created during the GFC and launched shortly thereafter.

[jacoavlu]

bitcoin has also never existed without a secular bull market - it was literally created during the GFC and launched shortly thereafter.

not sure what your point is with respect to my comment

im long term bitcoin bullish. How about you?

[xraygoggles]

not sure what your point is with respect to my comment

im long term bitcoin bullish. How about you?

The point being that bitcoin (& crypto as a whole) is a liquidity sponge - when easy money is flowing, it gets a bid. So whenever the Fed decides to ease up on the hiking, or start cutting (maybe in a year or two), another bubble will form, which will perfectly coincide with the halving narrative bullcrap anyways.

Easy money already made in bitcoin (& eth) for the most part. There will never be "hyperbitcoinization" - that's copium talk from bagholders & delusional folks.

How ironic that bitcoin is now completely dependent on what the US central bank does - which was completely anathema to its raison d'etre.

[jacoavlu]

The point being that bitcoin (& crypto as a whole) is a liquidity sponge - when easy money is flowing, it gets a bid. So whenever the Fed decides to ease up on the hiking, or start cutting (maybe in a year or two), another bubble will form, which will perfectly coincide with the halving narrative bullcrap anyways.

Easy money already made in bitcoin (& eth) for the most part. There will never be "hyperbitcoinization" - that's copium talk from bagholders & delusional folks.

How ironic that bitcoin is now completely dependent on what the US central bank does - which was completely anathema to its raison d'etre.

bitcoin and crypto as a whole is a very small market in the grand scheme. So in the short term they trade largely in line with other risk assets which I think is in agreement with your position

but I’m not really interested in short term, and you didn’t answer the question. Long term. Bitcoin bullish or bearish?

[xraygoggles]

bitcoin and crypto as a whole is a very small market in the grand scheme. So in the short term they trade largely in line with other risk assets which I think is in agreement with your position

but I’m not really interested in short term, and you didn’t answer the question. Long term. Bitcoin bullish or bearish?

It's already reached it's saturation point IMO - in fact, I don't even know if it will ever surpass 69k from last bull cycle - that was a once-in-a-lifetime firehouse of liquidity never to be replicated again.

But I also don't think it will ever go to zero - it's already entrenched in the futures, options, and perp markets so there will always be traders keeping the price within a set range for the most part.

Plus, Sam Bankman-Fried is the Powell of crypto now - he is the "Crypto Put" in times of duress. Ditto CZ of Binance.

[jacoavlu]

It's already reached it's saturation point IMO - in fact, I don't even know if it will ever surpass 69k from last bull cycle - that was a once-in-a-lifetime firehouse of liquidity never to be replicated again.

But I also don't think it will ever go to zero - it's already entrenched in the futures, options, and perp markets so there will always be traders keeping the price within a set range for the most part.

Plus, Sam Bankman-Fried is the Powell of crypto now - he is the "Crypto Put" in times of duress. Ditto CZ of Binance.

we are at $19k in 9/2022, are you long term bullish or bearish?

[xraygoggles]

we are at $19k in 9/2022, are you long term bullish or bearish?

???

why did u quote my answer to ur question with the same question? kinda weird tbh