Bitcoin is still early

[burritos]

If we were able to convert time, manpower, resources and effort spent on crypto to hours x minimum wage, wonder what the market cap would be? I understand the desire to become rich from clicking buttons though. This reminds me that I am really getting into using our EMR.

[xraygoggles]

Current state of the cycle: some of my friends who had joined crypto startups in hopes of accumulating massive wealth quickly are now rebranded as ESG managers in their company - no joke.

Dollar has gone parabolic recently - prolly doesn't help bitcoin's thesis of failing dollar either. Some maxi's heads surely exploding as we speak.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Current state of the cycle: some of my friends who had joined crypto startups in hopes of accumulating massive wealth quickly are now rebranded as ESG managers in their company - no joke.

Dollar has gone parabolic recently - prolly doesn't help bitcoin's thesis of failing dollar either. Some maxi's heads surely exploding as we speak.

I'm a "maxi"...I'm doing just fine thank you. Actually have been loading up quite a bit over the past 8 months. The real questions are what happens first? 1. G20 Countries/European Countires default (see Italy, Spain, Greece etc). 2. WWWIII (technically this may have already started, but we won't know for at least a few years). 3. Fed Pivot.

I don't have the answer...but I'll still be hedging with Bitcoin. My bet is #1 or #3 happen first...but all have a significant non-zero chance of occurring over the coming months/year or two.

More cheap sats are fine with me. I'm 3 years in to a 10-20 year hypothesis. Nothing has changed my outlook so far.

[MMJB LLC]

I'm a "maxi"...I'm doing just fine thank you. Actually have been loading up quite a bit over the past 8 months. The real questions are what happens first? 1. G20 Countries/European Countires default (see Italy, Spain, Greece etc). 2. WWWIII (technically this may have already started, but we won't know for at least a few years). 3. Fed Pivot.

I don't have the answer...but I'll still be hedging with Bitcoin. My bet is #1 or #3 happen first...but all have a significant non-zero chance of occurring over the coming months/year or two.

More cheap sats are fine with me. I'm 3 years in to a 10-20 year hypothesis. Nothing has changed my outlook so far.

Hmmm...
If anything, I think the rising Dollar (aka "Milkshake Theory") would be even more reason to buy Bitcoin/certain crypto. If this continues, something serious is going to break and you will want to have at least some wealth/savings/whatever, outside of the current Western financial system.

For disclosure, I don't own any crypto currently. Started divesting my crypto last December and sold my last portion at the end of March. I don't have a great feel for Bitcoin/crypto at this point. I very much like the premise of Bitcoin/certain cryptos. But, it hasn't been through a Western financial crisis/sovereign debt crisis like the one we are currently beginning. To be fair, most current assets (many equities, bonds, RE, etc) haven't been through the financial hurricane that is approaching. The only asset I can think of is possibly gold and maybe silver. And to the haters who quote that equities, bonds, RE etc survived 2008, well at the end of this I think we will be wishing to be back in 2008. I would recommend "When Money Dies" by Fergusson to get an idea of where this train is heading unless the powers that be can turn this around...doubtful...ugh.

[xraygoggles]

Before bitcoin was subsumed into the Wall Street financial apparatus, it had potential as an alternative asset class that could provide diversification.

But those days are over - as are all the extant narratives: inflation hedge; digital gold (SoV); corporate adoption; dollar supplanter; "number go up"; et al. It is now essentially a forex cross/high-beta proxy - wholly correlated to equities.

[jacoavlu]

“narratives” and price talk is uninteresting

network hash rate is near all time high, margins for miners have thinned significantly.

A large Chinese mining pool just paused withdrawals due to liquidity issues and basically immediately lost like 2/3 of their hash

Eth imminently is hard forking to proof of stake

the bitcoin protocol continues to function as it is designed.

those are a few things happening that I think are interesting

[NapoleanDynamite]

“narratives” and price talk is uninteresting

network hash rate is near all time high, margins for miners have thinned significantly.

A large Chinese mining pool just paused withdrawals due to liquidity issues and basically immediately lost like 2/3 of their hash

Eth imminently is hard forking to proof of stake

the bitcoin protocol continues to function as it is designed.

those are a few things happening that I think are interesting

Add this: Although it is getting a beat down the past 48 hours, the Lightning Network has over 4300 Bitcoins and is growing exponentially over the past 2 years.

[xraygoggles]

One of the downsides of Wall Street adoption - increased correlation to other risk assets. & my guess is the R2 will only increase over time.

[xraygoggles]

“narratives” and price talk is uninteresting

network hash rate is near all time high, margins for miners have thinned significantly.

A large Chinese mining pool just paused withdrawals due to liquidity issues and basically immediately lost like 2/3 of their hash

Eth imminently is hard forking to proof of stake

the bitcoin protocol continues to function as it is designed.

those are a few things happening that I think are interesting

actually, narratives & price talk is all that 99.999% of people think about in this space, so to say it is uninteresting is false - it is the ONLY thing that matters.

[Zaphod]

Lol.

Inflation is how sovereign currency printers default, its happening right now and crypto is getting blown out. Crypto is a liquidity proxy, nothing more, just high beta to market.

Dollar is crushing everything, btc hasnt done a thing but get rekt in that time period.

It isnt an inflation hedge, period.

[burritos]

Lol.

Inflation is how sovereign currency printers default, its happening right now and crypto is getting blown out. Crypto is a liquidity proxy, nothing more, just high beta to market.

Dollar is crushing everything, btc hasnt done a thing but get rekt in that time period.

It isnt an inflation hedge, period.

I don't know if you're right, but your gloating is funny.

[Nysoz]

As the thread title says, Bitcoin is still early lol. If it's supposed to ever do what it's supposed to do, it'll take a long time to get the speculators out to find the true value. Something tells me that once all the speculators are out then the true value won't be anywhere near what people hope it will be. But I don't understand or use it so I very well may be wrong as well.

[jacoavlu]

actually, narratives & price talk is all that 99.999% of people think about in this space, so to say it is uninteresting is false - it is the ONLY thing that matters.

I should have said “uninteresting to me”

[Zaphod]

I don't know if you're right, but your gloating is funny.

Its not like Im short, just fun to point out the exceedingly obvious.

BTC hard money type adherents have their foundational basis on a distorted intoxicated conspiracy nutters interpretation of monetary policy and even what money is.

Not shocking it isnt set up properly or that they'd be confused when it doesnt behave according to their misconceptions.

Let me know when the dollar is denominated in btc and not the other way around.

[Max Power]

As the thread title says, Bitcoin is still early lol. If it's supposed to ever do what it's supposed to do, it'll take a long time to get the speculators out to find the true value. Something tells me that once all the speculators are out then the true value won't be anywhere near what people hope it will be. But I don't understand or use it so I very well may be wrong as well.

Speculators are all there is. There's nothing to understand.
The funds are just profit taking, which they can in any market that has decent volume + volatility (NYSE, NASDAQ, RE, cryptos, FOREX, etc etc).

The part that cracks me up is how one after another after another crypto apologist steps up on this and other social media to act as as "MR. CRYPTO"...

They pretend to have a grasp of the magical "fundamentals," they answer questions, they offer a rosy outlook. Then, they get criticized - sometimes flamed... but they continue to defend BTC and other crypto, and they they *poof* vanish (typically during a crash or dip)... only for another to step up and assume the role of Chief Crypto Pumper.

...In the end, pumping it and getting greedy eyeballs on crypto is the only way for these things to go up. I get why the crypto defenders, the apologists, the champions persist. It's kinda sad. A lot of the people who have lost the most (% of their net worth) are those who were looking for an easy get-rich-quick and could ill afford such a loss: college students who didn't have much to invest, soldiers with a fat check on getting back from deployment, blue collar workers, etc. They buy it since they think it will go up or it has gone up in the past... basically no other reasoning. The smart people and seasoned investors, who could weather the losses, generally laugh at crypto. The funds pump and dump it if there is enough interest that know they can fleece the "investors" by buying in and then drumming up some headlines and social media buzz to profit take.

It is amazing to me how many times that cycle has lasted...
The "market" for such things like this or the tech IPOs 2001 or over-stuffed real estate 2007 is typically mortally wounded after a few pump-n-dump cycles (but I suppose Luna and many other cryptos are essentially dead for all intents and purposes).