Bitcoin is still early

[xraygoggles]

generalities. Congrats

but again pat yourself on the back for your prediction

All in good fun...

but it is interesting to see the same levels of contagion/degeneracy/poor risk management/avarice which have always plagued TradFi - various counterparties lending to each other with insufficient collateral & then subsequently blowing themselves up and everyone else in their midst - on steroids in crypto.

If it hadn't been for SBF - there's a good chance many people would shun this space completely. My guess is that his thought process was more like: 'Sure, I'll have to bail out all these worthless lenders, but I'm buying their customers.'

Without his largesse, btc would have kept cascading down to 10k or lower rn. It may still get there in the next few months, but it would have been a much longer waterfall without SBF.

[NapoleanDynamite]

larping

you literally started the defi thread on this forum

lol if you think bitcoin is going to zero or tether is imploding I am happy to engage in a friendly wager, winnings to charity.

I like these bets. I would also take on bets against people thinking BTC price is going to zero (I won't take the Tether bet). Although my bets would likely be less "friendly".

[The White Coat Investor]

I think the fact that this is fun to bet on tells you a lot of what you need to know about it and why people "invest" in it.

[jacoavlu]

I think the fact that this is fun to bet on tells you a lot of what you need to know about it and why people "invest" in it.

the point of such bets is just that a lot of people type opinions onto the internet that they don’t really have conviction about.

The definition of larping

I have offered bets to anyone willing to partake. It’s weird that so many people seem to have certainty about bitcoin yet no one willing to partake in friendly wager with proceeds going to charity

[The White Coat Investor]

the point of such bets is just that a lot of people type opinions onto the internet that they don’t really have conviction about.

The definition of larping

I have offered bets to anyone willing to partake. It’s weird that so many people seem to have certainty about bitcoin yet no one willing to partake in friendly wager with proceeds going to charity

Do you think it's fun to talk about and bet on a muni bond fund? No? Why is that and what is the significance of that fact?

[jacoavlu]

Do you think it's fun to talk about and bet on a muni bond fund? No? Why is that and what is the significance of that fact?

you miss the point
No one is expressing an opinion that municipal bond funds are going to zero, that they’re a Ponzi scheme, that they have no value.

If there is anyone that wants the other side of that but I will happily take that one as well

[pitt1166]

a part of the appeal of crypto and btc is the sense of community it provides. people feel disconnected from virtually everything these days. churches, civic organizations, unions, etc are all diminishing. we don't feel tethered to much.

many people people, especially young men, find that missing sense of community in btc and crypto. many people, especially young men, feel like they have missed out on significant financial gain and have limited economic opportunity. btc and crypto provide the potential for that outsized financial gain that no longer seems obtainable by conventional methods.

i think that's why many people are so adamant and defensive that these technologies are the future. it's become a huge part of people's identity.

[CordMcNally]

a part of the appeal of crypto and btc is the sense of community it provides. people feel disconnected from virtually everything these days. churches, civic organizations, unions, etc are all diminishing. we don't feel tethered to much.

Kind of a tangent but I agree about there not being as much community today. I just wish people would find it in person more so than online.

[nastle]

Is anyone here buying Bitcoin while it’s on sale essentially? I have GBTC like 3% of my portfolio but that’s it
is it gonna be a big mistake if we miss this chance ?

[jacoavlu]

Is anyone here buying Bitcoin while it’s on sale essentially? I have GBTC like 3% of my portfolio but that’s it
is it gonna be a big mistake if we miss this chance ?

sorry to break it to you but gbtc is a shitcoin

anyone with conviction is buying. Same as we were buying at 69k or whatever it was. And 59k and 49k and 29k lol. Just like I was and still am buying VTI and VXUS.

i see no reason to approach bitcoin any differently than the rest of your financial life.

[nastle]

sorry to break it to you but gbtc is a shitcoin

anyone with conviction is buying. Same as we were buying at 69k or whatever it was. And 59k and 49k and 29k lol. Just like I was and still am buying VTI and VXUS.

i see no reason to approach bitcoin any differently than the rest of your financial life.

With conviction? Please elaborate

[jacoavlu]

With conviction? Please elaborate

as in, understand what and why they’re buying

by my definition this excludes short term speculators

[FIREshrink]

i see no reason to approach bitcoin any differently than the rest of your financial life.

The rest of my financial life is
1. Pieces of real businesses making and selling tangible goods and services for real money and paying me my share of their profits each quarter (equities);
2. Loans to high quality government and corporate borrowers for short to medium term durations in exchange for favorable interest rates plus the assurance of return of capital (bonds);
3. Real property occupied by cash paying tenants benefiting from highly favorable tax law which allow me to minimize taxable gains for decades on end (investment properties).

You really don't think we should approach BTC any differently? Not even a little bit?

[Tim]

Kind of a tangent but I agree about there not being as much community today. I just wish people would find it in person more so than online.

Tangent on your tangent:
Sense of belonging and interaction “in the old days” was personal and civic involvement.
Media has transformed this. Identifying with causes (whatever they may be). Sense of belonging. Boy band fan clubs served a purpose, belonging. “Protest” or “Activists” belong to something. The latest, pro life and pro abortion. Opportunities to “belong” by joining in one way or another.

[jacoavlu]

The rest of my financial life is
1. Pieces of real businesses making and selling tangible goods and services for real money and paying me my share of their profits each quarter (equities);
2. Loans to high quality government and corporate borrowers for short to medium term durations in exchange for favorable interest rates plus the assurance of return of capital (bonds);
3. Real property occupied by cash paying tenants benefiting from highly favorable tax law which allow me to minimize taxable gains for decades on end (investment properties).

You really don't think we should approach BTC any differently? Not even a little bit?

you miss the point

my response was to someone who has chosen to invest 3% of their portfolio in a derivative of bitcoin (gbtc) and is talking about bitcoin being “on sale” and “missing out”

so the point I’m making is 1) if you believe bitcoin has some place in your portfolio then there is no good reason not to simply buy and hold bitcoin directly, as opposed to some derivative which has woefully underperformed bitcoin

and 2) if you’re changing your allocations because of price or macro or fomo then you should probably step back, slow down, reset