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  • Originally posted by BobbyC View Post
    I'm curious what btc experts on this site think btc is?

    -it's clearly not a store of value (store of values don't fall 70% in a few months)
    -its not a medium of exchange or a currency (99.9% of anything you buy doesn't take btc at checkout)
    -its not a commodity like oil, copper, soy beans that get used for things
    -its not a bond or loan that pays you a yield (yeah I know you can lend out your btc but not the same)
    -its not a company that sells a product that people want, has earnings, pays dividends
    -its not piece of real estate that earns rental income

    So what the heck is it? Why would anyone want to "invest" in it? Can any experts give me a succinct answer to that?
    its decentralized, you wouldn't understand /s

    Comment


    • Btc is a public ledger that can’t be censored or altered.

      Internet initially was unbelievable and poorly understood. People could transact business world wide with the internet in ways that was previously difficult.

      I do not think the capability BTC is fully understood yet. Why invest it? It’s a high risk bet. I guess 1% in it wouldn’t hurt.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

        bitcoin is just hard money
        Well it isn't hard money. Hard money doesn't lose over 70% of its value in 7 months.

        I won't make the argument that gold is hard money -- because it is no longer a medium of exchange -- but it has a better claim than Bitcoin because it actually was hard money for thousands of years, until the end of the Bretton Woods agreement in the early 70s.
        Erstwhile Dance Theatre of Dayton performer cum bellhop. Carried (many) bags for a lovely and gracious 59 yo Cyd Charisse. (RIP) Hosted epic company parties after Friday night rehearsals.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by GIMD View Post

          By the oldest law of all: supply and demand. I think all the other arguments; no dividends, no products etc are meaningless. So if a stock allows you to own a share of the company that makes a product, what sets the price of the stock? Supply and demand.

          And while bitcoin does not have the 100 years history of the stock market, it has survived 3 crashes in over a decade of existence and with each crypto winter, it has dropped to higher lows and reached higher highs each time (sounds familiar?). Anyways, by this time, most people have already made up their mind whether to buy bitcoin or not. I've made up my mind so I'm seeing this drop as an opportunity to buy.
          I'm only talking about BTC as I don't pay much attention to other crypto.
          What sets the price of a stock in a company is the expected risk-adjusted return based on its projected earnings/cash flow/dividends. The price will typically be more volatile than those parameters turn out to be, primarily because of the uncertainty around the ex ante projections, but also because of changes in prevailing interest rates, and the speculative mood of investors. However, in the long run, the price orbits the eventual cash flows.

          I only know the following because I read some of the Reddit forums: Bitcoin dropped below its 2017 high today. Apparently, Redditors attach significance to this.
          Erstwhile Dance Theatre of Dayton performer cum bellhop. Carried (many) bags for a lovely and gracious 59 yo Cyd Charisse. (RIP) Hosted epic company parties after Friday night rehearsals.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by CM View Post

            Well it isn't hard money. Hard money doesn't lose over 70% of its value in 7 months.

            I won't make the argument that gold is hard money -- because it is no longer a medium of exchange -- but it has a better claim than Bitcoin because it actually was hard money for thousands of years, until the end of the Bretton Woods agreement in the early 70s.
            since when is hard money defined by USD value?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by BobbyC View Post
              I'm curious what btc experts on this site think btc is?

              -it's clearly not a store of value (store of values don't fall 70% in a few months)
              -its not a medium of exchange or a currency (99.9% of anything you buy doesn't take btc at checkout)
              -its not a commodity like oil, copper, soy beans that get used for things
              -its not a bond or loan backed by credit or assets that pays you a yield (yeah I know you can lend out your btc but not the same)
              -its not a company that sells a product that people want, has earnings, pays dividends
              -its not piece of real estate that earns rental income

              So what the heck is it? Why would anyone want to "invest" in it? Can any experts give me a succinct answer to that?
              it’s just hard money

              Comment


              • Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

                since when is hard money defined by USD value?
                A=B and B=C, ergo A=C.

                Everything is valued in dollars, which are the medium of exchange. As Bitcoin is volatile against the dollar, it is volatile relative to any item/service you could purchase, but you already understand that.

                I'm not here to argue or "dunk" on anyone. I have no dog in the fight, just interested in perspectives and conversation. I can't see any reason to own crypto except that I might be able to sell to someone else willing to pay more, and due to the religious fervor surrounding it, perhaps a lot more.

                I've never purchased something with that intention, but I might someday. I think this rate-rising cycle will last at least through next year, and a nasty recession is likely, including plenty of bankruptcies. Recessions are deflationary, and if inflation drops enough/asset prices fall enough/unemployment rises enough so that officials panic and open the money firehoses again, and if Bitcoin first drops to triple digits and no one on Reddit wants to own it anymore, then I might put < 1% of my portfolio in it when the firehose opens up. Most bubble assets have substantial bounces after the bursting.
                Erstwhile Dance Theatre of Dayton performer cum bellhop. Carried (many) bags for a lovely and gracious 59 yo Cyd Charisse. (RIP) Hosted epic company parties after Friday night rehearsals.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by CM View Post

                  A=B and B=C, ergo A=C.

                  Everything is valued in dollars, which are the medium of exchange. As Bitcoin is volatile against the dollar, it is volatile relative to any item/service you could purchase, but you already understand that.

                  I'm not here to argue or "dunk" on anyone. I have no dog in the fight, just interested in perspectives and conversation. I can't see any reason to own crypto except that I might be able to sell to someone else willing to pay more, and due to the religious fervor surrounding it, perhaps a lot more.

                  I've never purchased something with that intention, but I might someday. I think this rate-rising cycle will last at least through next year, and a nasty recession is likely, including plenty of bankruptcies. Recessions are deflationary, and if inflation drops enough/asset prices fall enough/unemployment rises enough so that officials panic and open the money firehoses again, and if Bitcoin first drops to triple digits and no one on Reddit wants to own it anymore, then I might put < 1% of my portfolio in it when the firehose opens up. Most bubble assets have substantial bounces after the bursting.
                  that has nothing to do with “hard money”

                  the dollar is not hard money because it has essentially infinite supply. As has been demonstrated by our government

                  it kinda comes down to, do you think there can be such a thing as a digital money that is not issued by any government or central authority?

                  there are many people who answer this question “No” and that’s ok. The verdict isn’t in yet.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by BobbyC View Post
                    I'm curious what btc experts on this site think btc is?

                    -it's clearly not a store of value (store of values don't fall 70% in a few months)
                    -its not a medium of exchange or a currency (99.9% of anything you buy doesn't take btc at checkout)
                    -its not a commodity like oil, copper, soy beans that get used for things
                    -its not a bond or loan backed by credit or assets that pays you a yield (yeah I know you can lend out your btc but not the same)
                    -its not a company that sells a product that people want, has earnings, pays dividends
                    -its not piece of real estate that earns rental income

                    So what the heck is it? Why would anyone want to "invest" in it? Can any experts give me a succinct answer to that?
                    It's a way to make money.

                    You buy it, it goes up, you sell it. It goes up faster if you go start threads about it on forums or make Youtube videos about it. If anyone says otherwise, just tell them "you don't understand crypto!!!"

                    Easy $$$$$$$$$$$$

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

                      that has nothing to do with “hard money”

                      the dollar is not hard money because it has essentially infinite supply. As has been demonstrated by our government

                      it kinda comes down to, do you think there can be such a thing as a digital money that is not issued by any government or central authority?

                      there are many people who answer this question “No” and that’s ok. The verdict isn’t in yet.
                      I think you're subverting the meaning of "hard" and "money." Something isn't money if it isn't a widely accepted and easily used medium of exchange, and it isn't "hard" if its value is unpredictable and extremely volatile.

                      A fixed supply doesn't make it "hard."

                      In theory, it might be possible to have digital hard money not issued by any gov't, but Bitcoin is not that, and it's hard to imagine such a thing in our lifetimes. If anything could serve that purpose in the future, it's more likely to be gold, but that isn't going to happen either. Governments have a long history of experience with gold, and central banks still own it, but governments don't want to give up the levers of fiscal and monetary policy-making available to them with fiat currencies.

                      For all the faults of fiat currencies, gold was an anchor that made the Great Depression worse, which is why FDR devalued the dollar against gold and made it illegal for citizens to own gold.
                      Erstwhile Dance Theatre of Dayton performer cum bellhop. Carried (many) bags for a lovely and gracious 59 yo Cyd Charisse. (RIP) Hosted epic company parties after Friday night rehearsals.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by CM View Post

                        I think you're subverting the meaning of "hard" and "money." Something isn't money if it isn't a widely accepted and easily used medium of exchange, and it isn't "hard" if its value is unpredictable and extremely volatile.

                        A fixed supply doesn't make it "hard."

                        In theory, it might be possible to have digital hard money not issued by any gov't, but Bitcoin is not that, and it's hard to imagine such a thing in our lifetimes. If anything could serve that purpose in the future, it's more likely to be gold, but that isn't going to happen either. Governments have a long history of experience with gold, and central banks still own it, but governments don't want to give up the levers of fiscal and monetary policy-making available to them with fiat currencies.

                        For all the faults of fiat currencies, gold was an anchor that made the Great Depression worse, which is why FDR devalued the dollar against gold and made it illegal for citizens to own gold.
                        if your definition of hard money includes widely accepted and easily used and is anchored to price relative to USD then bitcoin doesn’t fit.

                        when that new money comes along please be sure to let us know

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by chocolatebear11 View Post
                          Btc is a public ledger that can’t be censored or altered.

                          Internet initially was unbelievable and poorly understood. People could transact business world wide with the internet in ways that was previously difficult.

                          I do not think the capability BTC is fully understood yet. Why invest it? It’s a high risk bet. I guess 1% in it wouldn’t hurt.
                          Blockchain is very well understood, its as old as the internet.

                          please watch this Berkeley lecture during their Computer Security 161 lecture:



                          I think you guys can spare 1 hour to understand bitcoin than a lifetime of ignorance and wasted money (if you do waste it on bitcoin).

                          Comment


                          • You can now buy BTC at 2017 prices. Essentially 5 years with a 0% return. The good news is it needs another 90% drop to get to 2016 prices.
                            Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by BobbyC View Post
                              I'm curious what btc experts on this site think btc is?

                              -it's clearly not a store of value (store of values don't fall 70% in a few months)
                              -its not a medium of exchange or a currency (99.9% of anything you buy doesn't take btc at checkout)
                              -its not a commodity like oil, copper, soy beans that get used for things
                              -its not a bond or loan backed by credit or assets that pays you a yield (yeah I know you can lend out your btc but not the same)
                              -its not a company that sells a product that people want, has earnings, pays dividends
                              -its not piece of real estate that earns rental income

                              So what the heck is it? Why would anyone want to "invest" in it? Can any experts give me a succinct answer to that?
                              It's a speculative instrument that might be a useful store of value and/or a medium of exchange at some point in the future. And it could be a halfway decent way to sneak your wealth out of an unstable country. Of course, if your money is in Bitcoin, you might not have any wealth left to sneak out....
                              Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by The White Coat Investor View Post
                                You can now buy BTC at 2017 prices. Essentially 5 years with a 0% return. The good news is it needs another 90% drop to get to 2016 prices.
                                if you DCAd weekly for 5 years you made 370%

                                Comment

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