Bitcoin is still early

[xraygoggles]

the “highly levered tech stock” is your analogy not mine

No its not mine - it's the market's perception, which is all that matters for price action.

[CM]

It's painful, but still throwing money biweekly into the abattoir.

TIL:
Definition of abattoir
: a place where animals are butchered : SLAUGHTERHOUSEMr. Foley worked previously at a pig abattoir and reckoned he was beyond such queasiness.— Tony HorwitzBulls are precious, a good one fetching $400 or more at the abattoir …— Peter Meredith

[NapoleanDynamite]

So what you're essentially doing is DCAing a highly leveraged tech stock, akin to someone DCAing into a 2x Tesla ETF if it existed. Not a wise move, especially if you don't rebalance.

I'm pretty sure NapoleanDynamite wished he had rebalanced some of his lottery winnings in btc when it was 50% of his portfolio or whatever number he said at that time...

This was literally when I was sitting with my kids at Halloween night 2021 talking with my neighbor at near all time BTC highs and it was about 55% of my porfolio. He was telling me how I had to rebalance.

Of course I would like to go back in time and sell at the near all time high. I would also like to go back and not sell my Tesla stock after riding it from about 45 bucks (pre-split) to 340 bucks (pre-split) before I sold it. That was still the worst mistake I have made. I would also like to go back and buy Amazon in 2007 when I said it was stupid and that I would never buy anything online. Ouch. That one was also horrible.

But, alas, I have a stronger belief in BTC long term than any other asset. And the only other asset class that I could have rebalanced to with my BTC would have been cash. Everything else would have been a crappy buy in 11/2021 and would also be down. Plus I would have taken a major tax hit.

I don't trade much anymore (yes I still gamble with a couple hundred thousand bucks here and there). So I have taken up the long term approach. And yes it is very hard to see your paper net worth drop >7 figures over the course of 9 months. But it is what it is. I've got a high paying job and wasn't planning to retire anytime soon. I have been stockpiling cash since last summer so I have a ton of buying power right now. My cash will either go to real estate, BTC, or stocks. Or possibly even some bonds if the bond rate gets above 6% range. I don't plan to retire for another 10 years or more. So having this everything crash/recession/depression will hopefully be good in the long run although WWIII would suck.

The only down side of BTC price crashing for me right now is I have to wait on the private jet. I really hate flying commercial.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Just peeked at my schwab account. I'm (more than probably) losing more money in the stock market than most people are losing bitcoin. It's painful, but still throwing money biweekly into the abattoir.

Right there with you! Except I am throwing money weekly to both!

[jacoavlu]

No its not mine - it's the market's perception, which is all that matters for price action.

but I care little about price action. This isn’t a trade. It’s a long term buy and hold. Bitcoin is a thing thats not an equity. so there’s no purpose is making an analogy “essentially it’s this” when the actual thing is simple. It’s just bitcoin

Long term I don’t think btc price will be highly correlated with tech equities. I could be wrong

let’s check again in a decade

[jacoavlu]

One thing I think pretty funny is not two years ago it was Napoleon here dunking when bitcoin crossed 20K. Now we approach 20K from the other side and the bears are dunking

[Max Power]

One thing I think pretty funny is not two years ago it was Napoleon here dunking when bitcoin crossed 20K. Now we approach 20K from the other side and the bears are dunking

Easy come, easy go.

I don't know if Bitcoin was ever "dunking"... it only ever goes up when new money is convinced to enter (on greed). Anyone who tries to call this a crypto "buying opportunity" or "dip" is delusional and only trying to prop the value and get a dead cat bounce at the expense of those who they are pitching crypto to. I think that most of the suckers already bought awhile ago, and while it's unethical, people are dumb and greedy... and it's not as if price pumping doesn't happen with stocks also. But for crypto, that party is now over.

It's not your responsibility to defend crypto and respond to everything people say, man. OP and other crypto pumpers are probably wisely avoiding forums since his accounts are crashed (human nature that if something works, you double down and do it again... whole basis of casinos, any crypto-like run-ups... even most of the "winners" end up as losers in the end). It might not be wise to sit around daily and respond to try to reason through it; I'd dump any BTC I owned while it still has some value and disappear to the gym or work or whatever to get my mind off it.

Crypto is going back to its start price of $0, make no mistake. It never did anything, never produced, never solved 'decentralized finance.' It was fun to watch while it lasted.

But good call on gold being down 2% from a year ago (vs S&P 12% loss and Bitcoin 47%), didn't realize that gold was technically down with today's move. Stay tuned

[jacoavlu]

Easy come, easy go.

I don't know if Bitcoin was ever "dunking"... it only ever goes up when new money is convinced to enter (on greed). Anyone who tries to call this a crypto "buying opportunity" or "dip" is delusional and only trying to prop the value and get a dead cat bounce at the expense of those who they are pitching crypto to. I think that most of the suckers already bought awhile ago, and while it's unethical, people are dumb and greedy... and it's not as if price pumping doesn't happen with stocks also. But for crypto, that party is now over.

It's not your responsibility to defend crypto and respond to everything people say, man. OP and other crypto pumpers are probably wisely avoiding forums since his accounts are crashed (human nature that if something works, you double down and do it again... whole basis of casinos, any crypto-like run-ups... even most of the "winners" end up as losers in the end). It might not be wise to sit around daily and respond to try to reason through it; I'd dump any BTC I owned while it still has some value and disappear to the gym or work or whatever to get my mind off it.

Crypto is going back to its start price of $0, make no mistake. It never did anything, never produced, never solved 'decentralized finance.' It was fun to watch while it lasted.

But good call on gold being down 2% from a year ago (vs S&P 12% loss and Bitcoin 47%), didn't realize that gold was technically down with today's move. Stay tuned

I’m a radiologist so I sit at a computer all day lol

You go back and forth bitcoin vs crypto. I’m not a crypto guy. I’m a bitcoin maxi. The rest of “crypto” is largely junk and I don’t engage in any of it.

any bet you wanna make re bitcoin going to zero or even a btc vs gold bet I’m happy to entertain. We can donate funds to charity. It keeps things fun

but I suspect you won’t

[chocolatebear11]

I just want to plug in for this radiologist who helped me learned more about onchain metrics. I basically hoarded cash since early this year and waiting for fed pivot.

The radiologist uses on chain metrics to show how low we could go with btc.

https://youtu.be/yS2ISpwA-_A

[NapoleanDynamite]

Easy come, easy go.

I don't know if Bitcoin was ever "dunking"... it only ever goes up when new money is convinced to enter (on greed). Anyone who tries to call this a crypto "buying opportunity" or "dip" is delusional and only trying to prop the value and get a dead cat bounce at the expense of those who they are pitching crypto to. I think that most of the suckers already bought awhile ago, and while it's unethical, people are dumb and greedy... and it's not as if price pumping doesn't happen with stocks also. But for crypto, that party is now over.

It's not your responsibility to defend crypto and respond to everything people say, man. OP and other crypto pumpers are probably wisely avoiding forums since his accounts are crashed (human nature that if something works, you double down and do it again... whole basis of casinos, any crypto-like run-ups... even most of the "winners" end up as losers in the end). It might not be wise to sit around daily and respond to try to reason through it; I'd dump any BTC I owned while it still has some value and disappear to the gym or work or whatever to get my mind off it.

Crypto is going back to its start price of $0, make no mistake. It never did anything, never produced, never solved 'decentralized finance.' It was fun to watch while it lasted.

But good call on gold being down 2% from a year ago (vs S&P 12% loss and Bitcoin 47%), didn't realize that gold was technically down with today's move. Stay tuned

I am the OP. I am not avoiding this forum nor any friends I have spoken with about BTC (not crypto).

I just stopped responding to you specifically because you have done zero work to educate yourself on Btitcoin and your posts are often times inflammatory. No reason for me to respond to you specifically as I consider it a waste of my time. I have pretty much responded to everyone else when I have time.

I’m still buying. God willing, I will still be here HODLing and buying 5-10 years from now. I may start mining soon as well if the ASICS go on sale for cheap.

I buy hard when I perceive weakness. Right now I am beginning one of those times. I was early to buy in March of 2020…and I’m probably early now. But getting ready to deploy more cash.

[chocolatebear11]

I am the OP. I am not avoiding this forum nor any friends I have spoken with about BTC (not crypto).

I just stopped responding to you specifically because you have done zero work to educate yourself on Btitcoin and your posts are often times inflammatory. No reason for me to respond to you specifically as I consider it a waste of my time. I have pretty much responded to everyone else when I have time.

I’m still buying. God willing, I will still be here HODLing and buying 5-10 years from now. I may start mining soon as well if the ASICS go on sale for cheap.

I buy hard when I perceive weakness. Right now I am beginning one of those times. I was early to buy in March of 2020…and I’m probably early now. But getting ready to deploy more cash.

Please make tutorial for ASICS mining if that happens. I know you had a helpful tutorial for puts/calls but it was not passive enough for me.

what do you think about crypto in a risk off environment which I don’t think it has ever been in. I believe BTC previous 3 bear markets have always been in an “easy” Monetary policy fed.

[jacoavlu]

Please make tutorial for ASICS mining if that happens. I know you had a helpful tutorial for puts/calls but it was not passive enough for me.

what do you think about crypto in a risk off environment which I don’t think it has ever been in. I believe BTC previous 3 bear markets have always been in an “easy” Monetary policy fed.

it’s easy lol
get asics
get 240v power
get internet
plug in
figure out how to deal with much heat and noise
figure out how to deal with spouse
get coins

[jacoavlu]

if this forum had audio I’d go record some of my asics and post it

[xraygoggles]

One thing I think pretty funny is not two years ago it was Napoleon here dunking when bitcoin crossed 20K. Now we approach 20K from the other side and the bears are dunking

True.

But do you think all the rainbow chart grifters, "dollar is dead" btc podcasters, & btc influencers who were telling people to sell their house to buy btc, go into debt to buy btc, et al will have any remorse for their actions - for sending retail lemmings off the cliff? I'm guessing no.

There were (and still are) as many hucksters proportionally in the btc space as there are in the rest of crypto space.

I'm not a btc maxi or a crypto maxi - I'm a profit maxi. Buy low, sell high. Forget about the faux-philosophy and cringeworthy commentary from the Twitterati.

[xraygoggles]

what do you think about crypto in a risk off environment which I don’t think it has ever been in. I believe BTC previous 3 bear markets have always been in an “easy” Monetary policy fed.

Yes this is important to keep in mind. bitcoin was created after the 08-09 crash, so it has only existed in the era of UpOnly(TM). It has never been tested in an equity bear market.