Bitcoin is still early

[Max Power]

What kind of currency or inflation hedge loses 25% in a week?

My gold sure has lost a ton of value.
Oh, wait, that was some crypto that pictures itself as golden.

Gold is still up vs 1000yrs ago, 100yrs ago, 50 years ago, 10 years ago, 5 years ago, a year ago, a month ago, etc. Kwayzee... I kept hearing Bitcoin is "the new gold." Hmm.
Then I remembered I hear of things that are as solid as gold, as good as gold, better than gold, solid gold... that's a comparison that's been going on for many centuries.

So what actually is a good stable bitcoin price in USD ?

Is this a joke?
Bitcoin is only worth buying if you think you will find somebody to buy it for more in a month or a year. That's the only way it becomes "valuable."
That should be the main thing everyone takes home from this discussion: you can make money from dealing in nothing, but you can lose a whole lot more also. The demand can come in fast... and leave even faster once the pump-n-dump is over with (dot coms, housing bubble, marij stocks, GME, BTC, etc). Gamblers only talk about their victories. You won't hear about people whose retirement gets kicked back 10yrs since they were trying to be greedy on crypto... yet the buy/sell cycle ran out of greed... and they now hold the bag.

BTC never had any intrinsic value, and it still doesn't. At least some of those other things had a snowball's chance (real land, real earnings, real products).
Crypto is a purely speculative investment on greater fool theory... and that's the first thing most people and banks/funds will dump to buy real stocks or assets in a down market. The crypto party's over. They can, and will, go to zero. Some already have.

[jacoavlu]

My gold sure has lost a ton of value.
Oh, wait, that was some crypto that pictures itself as golden.

Gold is still up vs 1000yrs ago, 100yrs ago, 50 years ago, 10 years ago, 5 years ago, a year ago, a month ago, etc. Kwayzee... I kept hearing Bitcoin is "the new gold." Hmm.
Then I remembered I hear of things that are as solid as gold, as good as gold, better than gold, solid gold... that's a comparison that's been going on for many centuries.

gold is down vs 1 yr ago, and of course now losing massively to inflation

[xraygoggles]

gold is down vs 1 yr ago, and of course now losing massively to inflation

But to be fair, wasn't bitcoin supposed to be an inflation hedge?

[Lordosis]

Okay Okay I will come clean. This is all my fault... I have been persuaded into gambling on a particular alt coin and will be doing so with a small but meaningful amount of money. Last week I created a coinbase acct and spun the wheel and "won" $3 of Bitcoin! And then boom everything collapses again.

[jacoavlu]

But to be fair, wasn't bitcoin supposed to be an inflation hedge?

depends who you listen to. I don't make price predeictions and I've said over and over, nobody knows nothing, all analogies break down, if you buy it dca and hold long term

[jacoavlu]

Okay Okay I will come clean. This is all my fault... I have been persuaded into gambling on a particular alt coin and will be doing so with a small but meaningful amount of money. Last week I created a coinbase acct and spun the wheel and "won" $3 of Bitcoin! And then boom everything collapses again.

lol now that we're back where we started we could do our bet again

[Lordosis]

lol now that we're back where we started we could do our bet again

I cannot and will not predict where this is going to go. I do not plan to buy any more and will Hodl my 0.00009972 BTC

[jacoavlu]

I cannot and will not predict where this is going to go. I do not plan to buy any more and will Hodl my 0.00009972 BTC

are you seriously buying some altcoin?

[Lordosis]

are you seriously buying some altcoin?

Yep.
probably a waste of money but I don't have time to get to the casino these days.

[jacoavlu]

Yep.
probably a waste of money but I don't have time to get to the casino these days.

cmon and you're not gonna tell us which one?

[xraygoggles]

if you buy it dca and hold long term

But you don't rebalance it right? Kinda weird to rebalance every single other asset class in your portfolio (stocks, bonds, cash), but not the most volatile and speculative asset class?

If anything, crypto/bitcoin should be rebalanced even more than others since it is so volatile with big swings both ways.

[jacoavlu]

But you don't rebalance it right? Kinda weird to rebalance every single other asset class in your portfolio (stocks, bonds, cash), but not the most volatile and speculative asset class?

If anything, crypto/bitcoin should be rebalanced even more than others since it is so volatile with big swings both ways.

I don't rebalance, not much rebalancing to do when you own very little bonds

[xraygoggles]

I don't rebalance, not much rebalancing to do when you own very little bonds

So what you're essentially doing is DCAing a highly leveraged tech stock, akin to someone DCAing into a 2x Tesla ETF if it existed. Not a wise move, especially if you don't rebalance.

I'm pretty sure NapoleanDynamite wished he had rebalanced some of his lottery winnings in btc when it was 50% of his portfolio or whatever number he said at that time...

[jacoavlu]

So what you're essentially doing is DCAing a highly leveraged tech stock, akin to someone DCAing into a 2x Tesla ETF if it existed. Not a wise move, especially if you don't rebalance.

I'm pretty sure NapoleanDynamite wished he had rebalanced some of his lottery winnings in btc when it was 50% of his portfolio or whatever number he said at that time...

the “highly levered tech stock” is your analogy not mine

and rebalance to what? more equities at ATH? No urge to pay down super low interest debt.

and i bought asics when they were way cheaper in btc terms

[Zzyzx]

bitcoin continues to trade like a long duration growth stock, and not like any kind of inflation hedge

https://twitter.com/tracyalloway