Bitcoin is still early

[jacoavlu]

meanwhile BND down 12% ytd, VOO down 20%, QQQ 30%, NVDA near 50%..... when shtf all correlation goes to 1

[burritos]

Just peeked at my schwab account. I'm (more than probably) losing more money in the stock market than most people are losing bitcoin. It's painful, but still throwing money biweekly into the abattoir.

[Random1]

Most assets will mean revert to their fundamentals over time, the problem with Bitcoin, no one knows what that is, it is is $10 usd or $100,000 usd.

[jacoavlu]

Most assets will mean revert to their fundamentals over time, the problem with Bitcoin, no one knows what that is, it is is $10 usd or $100,000 usd.

this is as much a question about USD as it is about BTC

[FIREshrink]

this is as much a question about USD as it is about BTC

True, but BTC does not have the world's largest military and largest economy behind it.

[FIREshrink]

What kind of currency or inflation hedge loses 25% in a week?

[jacoavlu]

True, but BTC does not have the world's largest military and largest economy behind it.

feature not a bug. money should not require violence to defend its status

[Random1]

So what actually is a good stable bitcoin price in USD ?

[jacoavlu]

So what actually is a good stable bitcoin price in USD ?

the price is the price, ive said it before, only buy long term, just like anything else.

it goes to zero or it goes up. a buyer should be fine with either scenario. all bitcoin has to do is survive. and meanwhile, fundamentals of what bitcoin is are still just fine. fixed supply, blocks every 10 minutes, permissionless, censorship resistant transactions

[xraygoggles]

So what actually is a good stable bitcoin price in USD ?

There is no fair price, since it has no earnings. It's a highly volatile & speculative store of value. The current price is based on macro conditions, sentiment, and narrative, that's it.

The most important thing is risk management, so IF you wanted to hold it for the long term, nothing more than 1-5% of portfolio. So if it fails, it doesn't change your long term financial plans.

Also important to rebalance quarterly, so you sell during bubbles, and buy during capitulation bear markets.

[Random1]

If you dont know what are fair price is, how can you determine if it is a good investment ?

It does not work well as a store of value, because as far as I can see , it does not store value well. Unless you consider a 13% decline in the value in 1 day a good store of value.

[jacoavlu]

what's a fair price for anything?

boglehead fundamentals are long term buy and hold, not active investing determine the value of something and then buy at a price below that value.

[FIREshrink]

feature not a bug. money should not require violence to defend its status

Should not vs will not
fantasy vs reality

Humans should not kill each other but they do and they have and they always will. BTC isn't going to change that.

[xraygoggles]

If you dont know what are fair price is, how can you determine if it is a good investment ?

It does not work well as a store of value, because as far as I can see , it does not store value well. Unless you consider a 13% decline in the value in 1 day a good store of value.

That's why its a speculative store of value. Meaning uncertain.

[jacoavlu]

Should not vs will not
fantasy vs reality

Humans should not kill each other but they do and they have and they always will. BTC isn't going to change that.

agree it wont change it. but, historically money (mostly gold) was protected by violence bc it had to be, bc it was easily confiscated

now the US defends the USD reserve status with violence bc we have to, after abandoning the gold standard and making a deal with the middle east to price their oil in dollars which is why we turn a blind eye to the atrocities committed by some of those people

btc is protected by cryptography so it doesn't need to be defended by violence