Bitcoin is still early

[jacoavlu]

The BitCoin hypers can't go away.
There is no way for it to make money for them aside from bringing in other new "investors."

You don't really see oil hype men. You don't see wheat or gold hypers. You don't see QQQ and VOO hypers. You don't see UST bond hypers. You don't see REIT hype men.

You DO see people hawking time shares, tech stocks, crypto, marij stocks, etc. They have bought in and want their shares to rise.

The bottom is zero without fundamentals. This is how the game is played. "Thinly traded" figures are all that you see and what new fools cue off... the last few trade prices, unaware of little real price support. Greater fool theory repeats and repeats. Bubble come and they burst. Sometimes, the bubble lasts awhile, but worthless "assets" are always the first to cave in a bad market...

New product or stock or idea...
Hype train starts, founders hold...
New or existing shares gradually come up available to meet demand...
Price goes up, hype goes up...
Founders sell a bit, price slows or stumbles, hype it back up...
(repeat that last line's cycle as many times as they can)
Eventual crash, race to the bottom.
Occasional dead cat bounce with sharks back in to pump and dump again...
The end.

It can be Beanie Babies or tech IPOs or Miami condos or crypto or Tickle Elmos... doesn't matter. The end result is the same: something without fundamentals got hyped, flew up on greed or perceived scarcity, crashed, died.

As someone who trades options and single stocks (not all that amazing but very "risky" by standards of this forum), I will tell you that bag holding is not wise. Set stop losses. Cut your losers QUICKLY. The funds and sharks or the govt can make quick work of even quite decent stocks sometimes. Take a loss and learn the lesson... there are many other winners. Doubling down and hoping for turnaround is seldom wise even if the equity has fundamentals or core profitability (BTC obviously has none... it's some numbers on a computer you'd be hoping somebody else buys later for more than you did).

no gold hypers lol. watch Fox News tomorrow around noon let me know if you don’t see any gold ads. And have you heard of Peter Schiff?

[bovie]

no gold hypers lol. watch Fox News tomorrow around noon let me know if you don’t see any gold ads. And have you heard of Peter Schiff?

LOL. Don't forget Robert Kiyosaki hawking silver q30m.

[jacoavlu]

hint, people really into bitcoin don’t talk about the price much. bc nobody knows nothing about the price tomorrow or next month or next year. what really matters is blocks just keep coming about every 10 minutes, the supply stays the same, no one can censor transactions, the network is stable, and people building innovative stuff around it

[burritos]

This is good advice in general for any speculation/investment, & is so well-known they have terms.

- Martingale strategy: doubling down on a loss in hopes of making it back.

- Sunk cost fallacy: inability to leave a trade/investment b/c too much money already in it.

- Anchoring bias: in finance, relates to comparing current price to cost basis (very bad in a bubble, since ur anchor is an irrational price to begin with)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnhyatt/2022/05/11/amid-crypto-plunge-longtime-bitcoin-bull-michael-saylor-falls-from-billionaire-ranks/?sh=1ed60b08115c

Saylor, who was worth $1.6 billion at the beginning of March, saw his net worth drop below the $1 billion mark on Wednesday, according to Forbes estimates. His fortune is largely tied up in MicroStrategy stock and Bitcoin, two assets that have tumbled during the recent market selloff.

Cut and run? HODL? I suspect the latter.

[chocolatebear11]

Year to date: NASDAQ is down as much as Bitcoin % wise.

[abds]

I don’t mean to distract from the boglehead vs crypto fanatic last couple pages, but serious question: how do you guys feel about the increasing correlation between BTC and the S&P500? The correlation has risen steadily over the last year, now to .75 for the last several months. BTC at one point was viewed by many as non-correlating (perhaps not by anyone on here, I can’t keep track), which was some of its appeal. It was seen as an inflation hedge by many (nearly all??) supporters. If correlation with the broader market stays high or increases, does that change anyone’s opinion about it? Because of course we can’t tell the future but that’s what’s currently happening.

[fatlittlepig]

I don’t mean to distract from the boglehead vs crypto fanatic last couple pages, but serious question: how do you guys feel about the increasing correlation between BTC and the S&P500? The correlation has risen steadily over the last year, now to .75 for the last several months. BTC at one point was viewed by many as non-correlating (perhaps not by anyone on here, I can’t keep track), which was some of its appeal. It was seen as an inflation hedge by many (nearly all??) supporters. If correlation with the broader market stays high or increases, does that change anyone’s opinion about it? Because of course we can’t tell the future but that’s what’s currently happening.

it's behaving like a volatile tech stock (for now) which is somewhat disappointing.

[jacoavlu]

I don’t mean to distract from the boglehead vs crypto fanatic last couple pages, but serious question: how do you guys feel about the increasing correlation between BTC and the S&P500? The correlation has risen steadily over the last year, now to .75 for the last several months. BTC at one point was viewed by many as non-correlating (perhaps not by anyone on here, I can’t keep track), which was some of its appeal. It was seen as an inflation hedge by many (nearly all??) supporters. If correlation with the broader market stays high or increases, does that change anyone’s opinion about it? Because of course we can’t tell the future but that’s what’s currently happening.

nobody know nothing. people on both sides like to parrot narratives but they’re meaningless. Nothing can escape macro. So unless you gonna predict macro don’t worry about it

Only buy anything for the very long term

[xraygoggles]

I don’t mean to distract from the boglehead vs crypto fanatic last couple pages, but serious question: how do you guys feel about the increasing correlation between BTC and the S&P500? The correlation has risen steadily over the last year, now to .75 for the last several months. BTC at one point was viewed by many as non-correlating (perhaps not by anyone on here, I can’t keep track), which was some of its appeal. It was seen as an inflation hedge by many (nearly all??) supporters. If correlation with the broader market stays high or increases, does that change anyone’s opinion about it? Because of course we can’t tell the future but that’s what’s currently happening.

Currently, there's a global deleveraging event where all speculative long-duration assets, memes, unprofitable Ark, crypto, etc are being sold off. So correlation is 1 for everything (including bonds). It's so risk off that people are cashing out of stablecoins for the only safe haven - the dollar - especially after UST self-immolation.

Some people (BTC maxis) say that BTC should be seen as a risk-off asset, uncorrelated to equities or any other asset class, but Big Money currently sees it as a risk on, high beta asset (akin to a volatile tech stock), so until large institutions/whales change their view on it, it will continue to become more and more correlated to SPY.

[fatlittlepig]

i wonder if the microstrategy guy is sleeping well.

[Dont_know_mind]

This is good advice in general for any speculation/investment, & is so well-known they have terms.

- Martingale strategy: doubling down on a loss in hopes of making it back.

- Sunk cost fallacy: inability to leave a trade/investment b/c too much money already in it.

- Anchoring bias: in finance, relates to comparing current price to cost basis (very bad in a bubble, since ur anchor is an irrational price to begin with)

I am waiting for the class actions to start and for the whole crypto space to get regulated.

Happily a few crypto holders were also holders of uranium stocks. So bought my first uranium spec miners yesterday.

If there is a full washout in crypto, I think I’ll get some more uranium stocks. Who would have guessed that there would be this correlation.

[CordMcNally]

i wonder if the microstrategy guy is sleeping well.

I don't think Michael Saylor has slept well for a long time.

[jacoavlu]

I am waiting for the class actions to start and for the whole crypto space to get regulated.

Happily a few crypto holders were also holders of uranium stocks. So bought my first uranium spec miners yesterday.

If there is a full washout in crypto, I think I’ll get some more uranium stocks. Who would have guessed that there would be this correlation.

the regulations already exist, called securities exchange laws, because basically everything besides btc is just a security in an alternative form namely a digital token. its just if and or when gov decides they want to enforce those rules. maybe theyre waiting on the outcome of the ripple case to figure out where to go next

[Panscan]

I don’t mean to distract from the boglehead vs crypto fanatic last couple pages, but serious question: how do you guys feel about the increasing correlation between BTC and the S&P500? The correlation has risen steadily over the last year, now to .75 for the last several months. BTC at one point was viewed by many as non-correlating (perhaps not by anyone on here, I can’t keep track), which was some of its appeal. It was seen as an inflation hedge by many (nearly all??) supporters. If correlation with the broader market stays high or increases, does that change anyone’s opinion about it? Because of course we can’t tell the future but that’s what’s currently happening.

It makes it even more pointless(as if this was possible). If I wanted levered tech I’d buy levered tech.

[Max Power]

Luna / Terra (a top 10 largest, sometimes top 5 largest crypto) has gone totally belly-up...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonatha...h=62846e92248f

Let me ask the crypto-pumpers this:
If these things supposedly have a completely iron-clad secure and unalterable supply, can't be created, etc... then how do they "halt" the blockchain that makes them? Who has the power to do that? Why are they trusted? Hmmmm.
This is surely a glitch, right? Go buy as much Luna coin as you can? Lol.

It is an interesting month for crypto to say the least.
Bitcoin... get yer Bitcoin... the first big name... and the last of them to collapse?