Bitcoin is still early

[Dont_know_mind]

The way I see it, the idea of a "Fed put" would more or less apply to the entire stock market; I'm not sure if, in and of itself, it's necessarily a positive or a negative for value investing in relation to any other subset of growthy stocks. Probably things like inflation and where we are in the economic cycle are other factors to consider.

Wrt to CAPE:
1. The data to me appears to indicate a change in relationship since 1988 and a tendency towards higher valuations.
2. Interest rates alone cannot account for this as other low interest rate periods did not accompany valuation increases like this e.g 3 month treasury bills were below 0.5% from 1942-1946.
3. The main contender I can see is the Fed or central bank put, which started with Greenspan after the 1987 stockmarket crash:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenspan_put

An unkind interpretation is that the central bankers are a bunch of serial bubble blowers (whatever a bubble is). A less severe interpretation is that they save the system from systemic risk and this has the side-effect of possibly increasing accepted valuations over time.

In terms of value investors relying on CAPE, central banks may have not only taken away their lunch (deprived them of low CAPE periods) but also given them a massive prolonged wedgie (in terms of higher CAPEs for longer than they imagined possible).

Valuations matter, but I'm very sceptical of the CAPE valuation narrative.

[Hank]

Is this a good entry point for crypto? If so, which ones are good---Bitcoin? Ethereum?

Thanks

Clearly the right answer is Dogecoin.

[xraygoggles]

you pay a significant premium and ongoing expenses with gbtc

also, it’s not impossible to buy directly in an IRA or solo 401k. And not impossible to DCA directly into btc

Yep, they trade at a premium to the underlying coins. No other viable options currently so beggars can't be choosers. The reason to get the ETFs is if you wanted it in tax-advantaged space. You could also do the checkbook IRA like you mentioned earlier. But opening one of those would not allow you to do Backdoor Roths anymore...

[jacoavlu]

Yep, they trade at a premium to the underlying coins. No other viable options currently so beggars can't be choosers. The reason to get the ETFs is if you wanted it in tax-advantaged space. You could also do the checkbook IRA like you mentioned earlier. But opening one of those would not allow you to do Backdoor Roths anymore...

the ETFs seem like a high price to pay for laziness

sure you could do backdoor Roths. Just do the bitcoin in the Roth IRA

or solo 401k

[chucki]

BTC over $20k. Possible breakout.

[CordMcNally]

BTC over $20k. Possible breakout.

Breakout of what? And on what news?

[chucki]

Breakout of what? And on what news?

$20k has been the resistance level (actually slightly below in the high 19s) since reaching the all time high in Dec 17. It flirted with $20k for the past month or so. So just based on technical analysis breaching this number could lead to a price breakout. With BTC, who knows though? It could be temporary and fall back below or even plummet. Coinbase (one of the main US crypto exchanges) crashed.

[CordMcNally]

$20k has been the resistance level (actually slightly below in the high 19s) since reaching the all time high in Dec 17. It flirted with $20k for the past month or so. So just based on technical analysis breaching this number could lead to a price breakout. With BTC, who knows though? It could be temporary and fall back below or even plummet. Coinbase (one of the main US crypto exchanges) crashed.

I'm well aware of the supposed $20k level of resistance but one of my biggest critiques of Bitcoin is that it just seems to do whatever with no rhyme or reason. Nobody can hardly ever explain price increases or decreases.

[Nysoz]

But the crayon/spaghetti lines say that something may or may not happen

[jacoavlu]

I'm well aware of the supposed $20k level of resistance but one of my biggest critiques of Bitcoin is that it just seems to do whatever with no rhyme or reason. Nobody can hardly ever explain price increases or decreases.

much like the stock market. Those that try to explain short term price fluctuations, are simply blowing hot air

[Peds]

Can't believe I missed the whole thing.........

[NapoleanDynamite]

Who could have predicted this crazy all time high?

5/7/2020
"Either way, I wanted to throw this out there for documentation. I predict Bitcoin will be somewhere between 50K and 200K over the next 2-4 years. It will not stay there, but it will get there. I believe in 2-4 years it will be significantly higher than the 9800 it is trading at right now. Feel free to call me crazy and a nut. I have thick skin. But mostly I wanted to document this as it is a disagreement that I have been having with WCI over the past 2 years in some of his posts. I do believe at this point that anyone who is not taking at least a tiny position in Bitcoin (be it 1%) is not being wise with their investment dollars."

YTD returns:
BTC: 200%
S/P 500: 5%

10 Year returns:
BTC: 6,271,233%
S/P 500: 200%
NASDAQ 100: 512%
US Large Cap: 254%
US Small Cap: 180%
Gold: 24%
US Reits: 125%

Probably not a good idea for ones portfolio.

[CordMcNally]

Who could have predicted this crazy all time high?

5/7/2020
"Either way, I wanted to throw this out there for documentation. I predict Bitcoin will be somewhere between 50K and 200K over the next 2-4 years. It will not stay there, but it will get there. I believe in 2-4 years it will be significantly higher than the 9800 it is trading at right now. Feel free to call me crazy and a nut. I have thick skin. But mostly I wanted to document this as it is a disagreement that I have been having with WCI over the past 2 years in some of his posts. I do believe at this point that anyone who is not taking at least a tiny position in Bitcoin (be it 1%) is not being wise with their investment dollars."

YTD returns:
BTC: 200%
S/P 500: 5%

10 Year returns:
BTC: 6,271,233%
S/P 500: 200%
NASDAQ 100: 512%
US Large Cap: 254%
US Small Cap: 180%
Gold: 24%
US Reits: 125%

Probably not a good idea for ones portfolio.

We've found our new EntrepreneurMD .

The thing I find most hilarious is that you think it is unwise if somebody doesn't have at least some stake in Bitcoin. Would I be wise if I bought $1 worth...$10 worth...$100 worth...$1,000 worth...etc.? I think it's unwise for somebody to invest in something they don't understand. I think it's unwise for somebody to deviate from their successful plan already in place. Again, nobody here needs Bitcoin. I think it's fine if you want to recommend it but to act like anyone here needs it is ridiculous.

[G]

Who could have predicted this crazy all time high?

5/7/2020
"Either way, I wanted to throw this out there for documentation. I predict Bitcoin will be somewhere between 50K and 200K over the next 2-4 years. It will not stay there, but it will get there. I believe in 2-4 years it will be significantly higher than the 9800 it is trading at right now. Feel free to call me crazy and a nut. I have thick skin. But mostly I wanted to document this as it is a disagreement that I have been having with WCI over the past 2 years in some of his posts. I do believe at this point that anyone who is not taking at least a tiny position in Bitcoin (be it 1%) is not being wise with their investment dollars."

YTD returns:
BTC: 200%
S/P 500: 5%

10 Year returns:
BTC: 6,271,233%
S/P 500: 200%
NASDAQ 100: 512%
US Large Cap: 254%
US Small Cap: 180%
Gold: 24%
US Reits: 125%

Probably not a good idea for ones portfolio.

Dude/Dudette:

I always know to check the price of BTC when there is activity on your bitcoin threads because it means the price is up. I recall you saying that that wasn't the case, but here you are and there is bitcoin at a high.

For your 10-year returns, don't forget to list dogecoin. You can also add my returns on Japanese whiskey which are in the several hundred percent (unfortunately not as good as bitcoin...but arguably a lot more useful), but be sure to leave out my returns on Westland Garryana, which has been a complete bust for resell.

Also, for those that argue so vehemently about BTC being a "currency"...look at the currency changes today: 0.1%, 0.2%...0.4%...and then BTC 7%. Just an observation.

[jacoavlu]

Who could have predicted this crazy all time high?

5/7/2020
"Either way, I wanted to throw this out there for documentation. I predict Bitcoin will be somewhere between 50K and 200K over the next 2-4 years. It will not stay there, but it will get there. I believe in 2-4 years it will be significantly higher than the 9800 it is trading at right now. Feel free to call me crazy and a nut. I have thick skin. But mostly I wanted to document this as it is a disagreement that I have been having with WCI over the past 2 years in some of his posts. I do believe at this point that anyone who is not taking at least a tiny position in Bitcoin (be it 1%) is not being wise with their investment dollars."

YTD returns:
BTC: 200%
S/P 500: 5%

10 Year returns:
BTC: 6,271,233%
S/P 500: 200%
NASDAQ 100: 512%
US Large Cap: 254%
US Small Cap: 180%
Gold: 24%
US Reits: 125%

Probably not a good idea for ones portfolio.

this is pretty much nonsense

btc tops the high it reached 3 yrs ago and you immediately come to gloat and quote your prediction which is still a long way from realization

and you want to quote some past returns which are meaningless in this context