Bitcoin is still early

[pierre]

But mentally, I plan to hold this for at least another 5-10 years.

And then what? Get back to indexing? Will bitcoin no longer be a good investment in 5 years?

[pitt1166]

i'm not a bitcoin or crypto hater, i find it interesting. but with the recent market changes over the past 6 months, i have been checking the price of bitcoin regularly, and it seems to follow the general stock market.

i know bitcoin having a low correlation with the stock market is viewed as one of its main advantages. for the bitcoin backers, is there something i am missing here?

[NapoleanDynamite]

And then what? Get back to indexing? Will bitcoin no longer be a good investment in 5 years?

1. I said "at least". I actually plan to hold it for the rest of my life. But if price were to get out of control to the upside, I may use some of my bitcoin to spend on something that would make my life more enjoyable (travel, a private jet, setting up a surgical clinic in a 3rd world country etc).

2. I don't plan on retiring for at least 5-10 years (obviously life could change this). So I have no reason to spend any of my retirement portfolio in that time frame. I consider Bitcoin part of this. Beyond 5-10 years I might actually consider retirement. At that point, I will have to spend some of my retirement money to live. Depending on many factors, Bitcoin would be in consideration as to what to spend and what to hold.

3. I believe Bitcoin will be a good investment for the rest of my life and long after.

4. I still index...so there is no "get back to indexing". Most of my Bitcoin purchases are DCA at this point just like my indexing. I just happen to believe that Bitcoin will outperform my indexing dramatically in the near and long term.

5. I could be wrong....about everything above.

[NapoleanDynamite]

i'm not a bitcoin or crypto hater, i find it interesting. but with the recent market changes over the past 6 months, i have been checking the price of bitcoin regularly, and it seems to follow the general stock market.

i know bitcoin having a low correlation with the stock market is viewed as one of its main advantages. for the bitcoin backers, is there something i am missing here?

Here is an article that discusses correlation between S/P and Bitcoin price:

https://blockworks.co/january-effect...e%20directions.

As Bitcoin develops further as an asset class, its correlation will likely decrease with the market. Watch it over the next 5-10 years. But over short periods of time it will have times that it correlates highly with the market. Right now, it is trading like a "risk on" asset. Ironic in my opinion, but not everyone sees Bitcoin like I do as a risk off asset.

[Tim]

"but not everyone sees Bitcoin like I do as a risk off asset."
That is key. Valuation is both buyer and seller's perception. My time machine is broke. Good luck with the long term.

[NapoleanDynamite]

For everyone that has claimed for the past 2 years that Bitcoin has no "intrinsic value" I hope you have been watching what has happened in Canada, the Ukraine, and Russia over the past 4 weeks. I guarantee you the Canadian Truckers/protestors and every citizen of Russia and Ukraine are gaining an appreciation of the intrinsic value of Bitcoin.

It it wealth that can move across borders carried only in your brain. It cannot be confiscated or "frozen" by a government (be it your own or an opposing one). I didn't think we would get here this quickly. I hoped we never would. But here we are. I hope the people of Taiwan own a lot of Bitcoin.

[CordMcNally]

For everyone that has claimed for the past 2 years that Bitcoin has no "intrinsic value" I hope you have been watching what has happened in Canada, the Ukraine, and Russia over the past 4 weeks. I guarantee you the Canadian Truckers/protestors and every citizen of Russia and Ukraine are gaining an appreciation of the intrinsic value of Bitcoin.

It it wealth that can move across borders carried only in your brain. It cannot be confiscated or "frozen" by a government (be it your own or an opposing one). I didn't think we would get here this quickly. I hoped we never would. But here we are. I hope the people of Taiwan own a lot of Bitcoin.

I don't think this necessarily will help widespread adoption when people see Russian oligarchs, Putin, etc. using cryptos to bypass sanctions. If anything, it'll probably hurt progress.

[NapoleanDynamite]

I don't think this necessarily will help widespread adoption when people see Russian oligarchs, Putin, etc. using cryptos to bypass sanctions. If anything, it'll probably hurt progress.

Assuming 1 million oligarchs in Russia (overestimate obviously), it will help the other 143 million people in Russia who will be affected from these sanctions.

Fortunately/unfortunately Bitcoin is for everyone. It all depends on what perspective one wants to take. There will always be a reason to suggest it is for bad actors.

[CordMcNally]

Assuming 1 million oligarchs in Russia (overestimate obviously), it will help the other 143 million people in Russia who will be affected from these sanctions.

Fortunately/unfortunately Bitcoin is for everyone. It all depends on what perspective one wants to take. There will always be a reason to suggest it is for bad actors.

With how united the rest of the world is against Russia, I don’t see how you can argue billionaire Russians using crypto to avoid sanctions will ever be perceived as a positive by the majority. This is not the feather in the cap some people want it to be.

[chocolatebear11]

I think the situation in Russia and Canada is actually helping with Bitcoin thesis.

The common folks of Russia may pivot to Bitcoin because of how much the ruble has the devalued in such a short time.

[Hank]

I think the situation in Russia and Canada is actually helping with Bitcoin thesis.

The common folks of Russia may pivot to Bitcoin because of how much the ruble has the devalued in such a short time.

Is this the “if your country is as mismanaged as Putin’s Russia, you might want Bitcoin” thesis?

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

A bunch of Russians skirting sanctions using Bitcoin may have some unexpected/expected secondary consequences to Bitcoin.

[CordMcNally]

I think the situation in Russia and Canada is actually helping with Bitcoin thesis.

The common folks of Russia may pivot to Bitcoin because of how much the ruble has the devalued in such a short time.

You don’t need people who own bitcoin to buy in. You need people who don’t own it to buy in. Those people probably aren’t looking at it the same way as you.

[chucki]

Bitcoin is money for enemies. It doesn't matter what your political opinions are, where you live, or what you believe in. It's money for all.

[Tim]

Assuming 1 million oligarchs in Russia (overestimate obviously), it will help the other 143 million people in Russia who will be affected from these sanctions.

Fortunately/unfortunately Bitcoin is for everyone. It all depends on what perspective one wants to take. There will always be a reason to suggest it is for bad actors.

And you actually think China and Russia will "allow" Bitcoin for the masses? I think there are a few speed bumps ahead. There are a lot of assumptions there.