Bitcoin is still early

[Sampter]

Any predications on how low Bitcoin will go?

I have none, just curious.

[CordMcNally]

Any predications on how low Bitcoin will go?

I have none, just curious.

No idea but I'm confident it won't go below $0.

[xraygoggles]

Any predications on how low Bitcoin will go?

I have none, just curious.

Ofc no one knows, but I would not be surprised to see it go at least to the 200 week moving avg, which is 19-20k. If macro continues tanking, than 10-12k.

[Tim]

No idea but I'm confident it won't go below $0.

Fundamentals I guess? Buy it as a collectible?

[TheDangerZone]

Ofc no one knows, but I would not be surprised to see it go at least to the 200 week moving avg, which is 19-20k. If macro continues tanking, than 10-12k.

Any idea what the correlation is between BTC and US stocks? Do they typically move in tandem?

[CordMcNally]

Any idea what the correlation is between BTC and US stocks? Do they typically move in tandem?

One of the original arguments was that it was disconnected from equities and is good to hold during inflationary periods. That hasn’t been the case.

[Kamban]

I'm not sure I agree - not only because 99% of NFTs are utter crap, but also b/c they are highly illiquid, especially during a crisis. Very hard to get a bid and liquidate.

I think 99.999% are utter crap. Even for ones that are not, what really is its value in 5-10 years. How many people want to buy monkey faces or children's doodles for $500K. As to that music video that sold for 400K, I bet in 5 years no one will even remember the artist who made the video, let alone the video.. And for the rare folk that want to watch that video, they can see it for free YouTube and not have to shell out half a million for more to just say that I own this obscure singer's music video.

As to comparing NFT to the Mona Lisa at the Louvre, the difference is that any other copy, reproduction, digital image of Mona Lisa will not be 100% the same as the physical painting. But a NFT is a signed digital copy of a digital image or digital audio and hence it will be identical to any other digital copy, except it is not recorded on the blockchain network. For 500K savings, I can live with that.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Any predications on how low Bitcoin will go?

I have none, just curious.

Who knows...

That being said, strongest resistance points are at 30K and then at 20K. The biggest draw downs in BTC history have been at about 85% which would put the low at around $10,500. There is a very strong network of HODL-ers like myself that are the buyers of last resort. I bought on March 12th, 2020 when the world was ending and I scooped up 3 BTC for about $3,700 a piece. There are many of us out there that have the same sentiments. I have been buying again since about 50K but started buying hard again around 43K. I will keep buying hard in the short term. This is stuff I plan to HODL for minimum of 10 years.

Although it is unlikely, a WWIII could change things. But right now Fed Tapering/interest rate hikes along with Russia/Ukraine is what is affecting price. In December it was China sell pressure. Lots of negative macro sentiment and the everything bubble is starting to deflate a little. Hopefully it will all blow up and we can just get it over with.

For me, and many others like me, there is no alternative. There will be a future with BTC as a huge part of it. Assuming that BTC plays a major role in global finance over the next 5-20 years then the price right now is irrelevant. I've said it many times in this thread...I might be wrong, but so far I haven't seen/heard a good argument as to why I would be wrong.

If/when I am wrong, you can all show up and laugh in my face. Until then, I will continue to keep score.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Any idea what the correlation is between BTC and US stocks? Do they typically move in tandem?

I believe the correlation right now is about 0.35. -1.0 is the most uncorrelated and 1.0 is perfectly correlated. I don't have the chart right now, but this information can be found.

[abds]

Dang I missed the nadir. I guess I’ll hold out for it to drop again.

[FIREshrink]

. There will be a future with BTC as a huge part of it. Assuming that BTC plays a major role in global finance over the next 5-20 years then the price right now is irrelevant. I've said it many times in this thread...I might be wrong, but so far I haven't seen/heard a good argument as to why I would be wrong.

You could be right, but i haven't seen/heard a good argument for that, either. But a "huge role in global finance"? Guess it depends what you mean by huge.

[CordMcNally]

Dang I missed the nadir. I guess I’ll hold out for it to drop again.

Today could be your day!

[Dont_know_mind]

I think 99.999% are utter crap. Even for ones that are not, what really is its value in 5-10 years. How many people want to buy monkey faces or children's doodles for $500K. As to that music video that sold for 400K, I bet in 5 years no one will even remember the artist who made the video, let alone the video.. And for the rare folk that want to watch that video, they can see it for free YouTube and not have to shell out half a million for more to just say that I own this obscure singer's music video.

As to comparing NFT to the Mona Lisa at the Louvre, the difference is that any other copy, reproduction, digital image of Mona Lisa will not be 100% the same as the physical painting. But a NFT is a signed digital copy of a digital image or digital audio and hence it will be identical to any other digital copy, except it is not recorded on the blockchain network. For 500K savings, I can live with that.

The NFT thing is nuts. Does anyone know how it relates to copyright? Some NFT’s seem like unedited or slightly edited Disney images, it’s amazing Disney doesn’t have an issue with it.

It’s astonishing the market capitalisation of Bitcoin was close to 1B recently and associated capitalisation of related crypto and companies further billions. Which are probably worth zero.

Anyway, the vaporisation of even 75% of that will create a major loss of equity.

Nearly everyone knew it was likely to end, but most thought the equity loss wouldn’t have a ripple effect on more distant risk assets.

[NapoleanDynamite]

You could be right, but i haven't seen/heard a good argument for that, either. But a "huge role in global finance"? Guess it depends what you mean by huge.

FIREshrink....Here you go:

I did the rough math in one of the threads a ways back...But here it is in a more clean fashion that someone else completed. I have italicized work that is not mine but that I have also done in the past:

There are currently $700 Trillion of global "investment" assets:

Bonds: $137T
Stocks: $117T
Real Estate: $290T
Art and Collectibles: $22T
Gold: $10T
M2 Cash/Savings: $130T

Total: $706T

If BTC takes

1% (7 Trillion Mkt cap) of this $706T it will be worth $337K/BTC
2% (14T Mkt cap) then $667K/BTC
3% (21T Mkt cap) then $1M/BTC

I have already stated that I think it will eventually (this may be many decades away) eat all of this "investment" value and everything will be priced in BTC and not dollars. But if it only eats 3% then that's a 30X from here.

And we haven't even gotten in to the extra approx. $300T of sovereign Bond debt nor addressed the future M2 expansion/inflation.


As for the argument for a huge role in global finance...I would argue you haven't been paying attention. Of course you can disagree.

At bare minimum it will become the best store of value (I don't know the time frame). It will crush bonds, Real Estate, Collectibles, Gold and Cash for its use as a store of value. On the "max" end of the spectrum it would become the best borderless global medium of exchange. Either way, it has a long ways to go IMO.

[jz-]

Cryptocurrency Doesn’t Amount to Much - WSJ

short version: the crypto lobby wants access to ACH and FDIC coverage in order to "spin crypto straw into gold" or legalize their counterfeit currency.