Bitcoin is still early

[tomato14]

energy consumption and production is and has always has been intimately associated with human flourishing, when those things go up human lives improve[/QUOTE]

Agree, there’s a proven record of that, however do you think there’s an inflection point when energy consumption/production will do more harm? And do you see that as a present day risk?

[ShredtheGnar]

How big of an issue could mining disruptions be? The unrest in Kazakhstan resulted in their Internet being shut off for the whole country. Just so happens that they are also the 5th largest country for Bitcoin mining. Not sure if this has played into current pricing to some degree. More political unrest in countries with authoritarian governments will result in Internet outages as they try and stop communications between civilians. Could this somehow throw a monkey wrench into the gears that make Bitcoin work?

[Zaphod]

Getting earlier by the day.

[legobikes]

Guys - I bought $100 worth of btc in 2013 or so, I had around 5 btc. Two of those I used to buy rugs on overstock for around $800. One more I think I lost somehow. And two more, I think, were lost in the MtGox hack. If I'm not mistaken about those 2 bitcoins, then I might be getting them back soon - just got a message from the Japanese law firm that has been managing the 'rehabilitation claims' for the MtGox case for the past 6 years - the online claim system is a go.

And if I am mistaken - well, just for fun I logged in to coinbase, which is where I was hosting the btc I used to pay overstock.com way back in 2016. I thought I had emptied out the account, but I had left 0.04 btc... which is now worth $1800.

[chucki]

You will likely get back ~25% of your lost BTC from MtGox based on settlement/recovered coins. Expect something like .25-.3 BTC, not 2. Which isn't bad, because chances are you wouldn't have HODL'ed and would have purchased computer parts or another rug.

Edit: .5-6 back total

[legobikes]

Definitely would not have held.

[Yowza]

no crypto in my portofolio but still made me laugh

[Zzyzx]

What's with these January crashes? Where is it rotating to?

[NapoleanDynamite]

just pointing out btc closed around $15.5k when this thread started about 14 months ago

Good point...but for reference I actually started the original thread in May of 2020 (it couldn't be continued as it was shut down) when the price was about $9,500. Volatility is real and it is not a stable form of currency at this moment in time. As we have discussed, money has to start as a Store of Value and then it eventually works it's way to UOA and MOE.

So to the original point, it is not a great medium of exchange...yet. Original point: Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post
BTC lost 40% in less than sixty days. This is supposed to be a form of currency?

My only question is whether this is better or worse than the Turkish lira over the same time frame. You know, the lira... that bastion of value and stability.

Also to the original point, as I have stated multiple times, a 40% loss in value is nothing in locations where the currency has experienced thousands of percent of inflation over the course of a year or two. Ask Venezuela, Argentina, Lebanon, Zimbabwe, Turkey, and the many others that will come. And picking and choosing time frames is very arbitrary, but if you want to have some honesty with your time frames, pick any 5 year time frame in the history of BTC. The price has significantly increased over any 5 year period in it's history. This isn't guaranteed into the future...but it is very likely.

[NapoleanDynamite]

energy consumption and production is and has always has been intimately associated with human flourishing, when those things go up human lives improve

Agree, there’s a proven record of that, however do you think there’s an inflection point when energy consumption/production will do more harm? And do you see that as a present day risk? [/QUOTE]

I think Energy like this is far more of a waste than BTC.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/lufthansa-to-operate-18-000-near-empty-flights-this-winter-to

[NapoleanDynamite]

Not sure if you all saw this last week, but if you guys think I have a high risk tolerance....listen to what Bill Miller's portfolio consists of right now. 50% BTC, 50% AMZN.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjhMCsufdxo

Those are some big cajones!

[CordMcNally]

Not sure if you all saw this last week, but if you guys think I have a high risk tolerance....listen to what Bill Miller's portfolio consists of right now. 50% BTC, 50% AMZN.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjhMCsufdxo

Those are some big cajones!

Not as high of a risk tolerance as those who keep all their retirement in the company they work for.

[FIREshrink]

Not sure if you all saw this last week, but if you guys think I have a high risk tolerance....listen to what Bill Miller's portfolio consists of right now. 50% BTC, 50% AMZN.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjhMCsufdxo

Those are some big cajones!

Hasn't he underperformed TSM for like 25 years?

[NapoleanDynamite]

Hasn't he underperformed TSM for like 25 years?

Actually no...he outperformed for 15 years in a row (the chance of doing that is about 1/2.3 Million) and then 2008 hit him hard. He has since outperformed again. Of course that is mostly due to Amazon for which he was an early investor and Bitcoin which he started buying between $200 and $300

With the exception of that one really bad year....he has done pretty ************************ well.

Still, I was surprised he hasn't diversified more at this point. But his motto has been make big bets on good companies and watch them very closely/know everything about them.

[The White Coat Investor]

Am I supposed to show up here and say "I told you so" when BTC goes down like you show up and post "I told you so" when BTC goes up? Not sure what the protocol is.

But seriously, here's what I really can't figure out. There are precious few ways to really value BTC. The only one I can really put any faith into is how much energy it costs to mine a Bitcoin, right? I mean, that's one way to value Gold. BTC is supposed to be "digital gold" right? If it costs $1500 an ounce to mine Gold, then when you can buy it for $1400, that's a good deal. If it's selling for $1600, well go mine some instead of buying it on the open market. Well, a BTC costs something like $10K to mine. I don't really want to go to Kazakhstan and buy a bunch of computers and pay some guys with AK-47s to stand around the building and guard those computers, so maybe I'm willing to pay $12K for a BTC or even $15K. But $40K? Or $67K? Seems like I'd be better off setting up a mining operation, no?

So BTC fanatics, why would someone be willing to pay 4+ times what it costs to go mine your own other than you think you can find someone willing to pay even more for it?