Bitcoin is still early

[Kamban]

6%? My funds have done collectively over 50% this past year. Bitcoin did even better. I own a fund with 35% 5-year annualized return, and yes I've owned it for longer than that. 6% x 6% = 36%. 10K invested then is now $ 44.8K in just 5 years, and extrapolated to 10 years it's $201K = 20 fold, not 3.4.

Whenever I sell higher and buy back lower it seems to work out better than holding on, like October.

Should we call you the Oracle of Florida.

[Lithium]

Should we call you the Oracle of Florida.

Soothsayer of the Swamp!

[Brains428]

Libra is rebranding to Diem. Not sure what the angle is there. They're gonna try to follow the value of the USD to make it a stable digital currency. I guess if transaction fees went to near zero, that could be an incentive to adopt it.

LVL is a crypto platform that has free trading. It's $5 to have a same day transfer from crypto to fiat. They also have an associated mastercard.

10Y Treasuries are going up. I don't know if increased interest rates will really move the needle since most people buying/trading cryptos tend to be younger than 40. I'm guessing Yellen would be a bullish case for crypto. Who knows.

[Kamban]

The USD losing its reserve currency status and bitcoin becoming the reserve currency have two very different likelihoods of occurring-

The US dollar as the sole reserve currency has been challenged by many countries and some are using a basket of currencies including USD, Euro, Japanese Yen, Pound sterling and the Chinese are trying to get in, with their own currency to be added to it.

Does not mean Bitcoin will replace USD or this basket.

[billy]

The US dollar as the sole reserve currency has been challenged by many countries and some are using a basket of currencies including USD, Euro, Japanese Yen, Pound sterling and the Chinese are trying to get in, with their own currency to be added to it.

Does nto mean Bitcoin will replace USD or this basket.

Yes I know. But NapoleanDynamite alluded to bitcoin being "more of a world wide currency" than the USD in a previous post. Which prompted part of my response

[Kamban]

Yes I know. But NapoleanDynamite alluded to bitcoin being "more of a world wide currency" than the USD in a previous post. Which prompted part of my response

Sorry. It was directed more at ND

[burritos]

Yes I know. But NapoleanDynamite alluded to bitcoin being "more of a world wide currency" than the USD in a previous post. Which prompted part of my response

Is it really currency if people are hording and treating it as an appreciating asset? Shares of Tesla or Apple could arguably be considered currency minus one conversion step.

[jacoavlu]

Is it really currency if people are hording and treating it as an appreciating asset? Shares of Tesla or Apple could arguably be considered currency minus one conversion step.

just because people might hoard something does not exclude it from being a currency. Shares of Tesla or Apple lack some of the fundamental properties needed to really be a currency

[EntrepreneurMD]

Yeah, I'm up 333.7% YTD but I know this isn't realistic to keep up. I just found/got lucky with a once in a decade/generation investment/timing. I do plan on trying to get at least 20-30% annually with the aggressive part of my portfolio going forward though.

That 35% is specifically the fund's 5 and 10-year annualized returns. Consistency and reproducibility are critical for me or else I would not bother, and I wouldn't be where I am as a mid-career PCP. I've been keeping these types of numbers for years so it has been realistic at least for these years, and it's reasonable to expect historic long term fund returns if you ask most FA's. This is not an isolated Tesla or Bitcoin move on a small portion of my portfolio. For that reason, I'm not into individual stock plays or Bitcoin - the consistency year over year is a great motivator for me.

Try to invest with recurring dividends for the long haul.

Glad you had a very good year.

[xraygoggles]

I'm guessing Yellen would be a bullish case for crypto. Who knows.

She dislikes bitcoin, but likes blockchain technology.

https://www.coindesk.com/janet-yellen-bitcoin

[xraygoggles]

That 35% is specifically the fund's 5 and 10-year annualized returns. Consistency and reproducibility are critical for me or else I would not bother, and I wouldn't be where I am as a mid-career PCP. I've been keeping these types of numbers for years so it has been realistic at least for these years, and it's reasonable to expect historic long term fund returns if you ask most FA's. This is not an isolated Tesla or Bitcoin move on a small portion of my portfolio. For that reason, I'm not into individual stock plays or Bitcoin - the consistency year over year is a great motivator for me.

Try to invest with recurring dividends for the long haul.

Glad you had a very good year.

My portfolio (including new contributions and capital gains) is up ~7.5x since Jan. This year is a one-in-a-lifetime type of year. I've been incredibly fortunate to ride the WFH/cloud train, Tesla train, crypto train, and have multibaggers in my private investments (Airbnb, Chargepoint, Palantir, Robinhood soon).

Point is you only need one moonshot year to catch up to others' years of consistent steady growth. Having said that, I have been taking some of my gains and putting into index funds to preserve the wealth.

Didn't mean to derail this thread ---> back to crypto talk.

Visa is currently in talks with Centre to allow buying/selling of USDC coin on their credit cards, being able to transact with it. This makes more sense than having Bitcoin be the universal currency. Many more companies will likely start to implement their own currency, or even partner with a centralized coin like Ripple to use.

[Brains428]

xraygoggles My comment about Yellen has nothing to do with her stance on crypto, but more with her likelihood to push for more QE. Concerns for currency stability sends people flocking to crypto and gold.

[EntrepreneurMD]

Exactly. Just as ludicrous as most of his other posts.

Ha, that comment wasn't my post.

Remember, the psychology of self-defeatism means you defeat yourself with no one else holding you back. The psychology of success is the 1%'s attitude towards any endeavor. I can and you can, versus I can't so you can't. You're gonna do great!

[NapoleanDynamite]

xraygoggles My comment about Yellen has nothing to do with her stance on crypto, but more with her likelihood to push for more QE. Concerns for currency stability sends people flocking to crypto and gold.

Agree with Brains on this one. Given Yellen's history, it is likely the US continues with QE infinity, amongst other modes of trying to keep the economy propped up. This is a very bullish case for BTC. Her feelings on "blockchain" or "BTC" really don't matter if they keep pouring money into the system. As I mentioned in a previous post, the biggest risk to BTC right now is that the central banks stop dumping money into the system and actually start quantitative tightening. The chance of this right now is very unlikely.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Yes I know. But NapoleanDynamite alluded to bitcoin being "more of a world wide currency" than the USD in a previous post. Which prompted part of my response

I understand both of your discussions here. And I agree that just because the USD is unlikely to remain the global currency peg indefinitely (no currency in the history of time has ever remained a global reserve currency indefinitely), does not mean that BTC will become the world's reserve currency. I was not trying to infer that.

However, currently there are only 2 logical competitors to the USD. 1. Return to a Gold Standard Peg,. This is possible. After that, it is BTC. That's all we have right now. USD, Gold, Bitcoin. These are the "peaceful" mechanisms. Research any other options. You will come to the same conclusions that the all other options only lead to further trade wars, and eventually likely hot wars.

Timing on these things is nearly impossible to predict and I don't venture to make that guess. And of course there could be another option that presents itself in a peaceful manner...like Central Bank Digital Currency Pegs or something else that does not currently exist. But holding to the idea that the USD will remain the global reserve currency until the end of time is unwise IMO.