Bitcoin is still early

[NapoleanDynamite]

Did Cathie Wood write this or do you write for her? The numbers you expect and the term boring don’t typically go together. I honestly think the last 10 years, and the last year or two more specifically, have really clouded how people think and what they expect.

Cord - You were literally the first one to make fun of me on 5/7/2020 when I started this thread on BTC. I stated BTC price would reach between 50K and 200K but not stay there. So far, what I said in my initial post has proven to be true. It might be better to wait 5-10 years before making fun of me on this one. Maybe I have done the work and have reasoning for my statements.

Michael Saylor frequently states the 200% CAGR over the past 10 years. It is not physically possible for BTC to maintain a 200% CAGR over the next 10 years (unless my math is wrong). However if you look at possible areas of growth, adoption, and the current financial system a 30-60% CAGR is not out of the realm of possibility.

[CordMcNally]

Cord - You were literally the first one to make fun of me on 5/7/2020 when I started this thread on BTC. I stated BTC price would reach between 50K and 200K but not stay there. So far, what I said in my initial post has proven to be true. It might be better to wait 5-10 years before making fun of me on this one. Maybe I have done the work and have reasoning for my statements.

Michael Saylor frequently states the 200% CAGR over the past 10 years. It is not physically possible for BTC to maintain a 200% CAGR over the next 10 years (unless my math is wrong). However if you look at possible areas of growth, adoption, and the current financial system a 30-60% CAGR is not out of the realm of possibility.

I’m making fun of the fact that you think those returns are going to be boring. Pretty much anything that has done that over the long term has had significant drawdowns. People tend to think differently when something they own has lost most of its value. Of course anything is possible but to call 30-60% CAGR boring almost makes it seem like that’s your bear case.

[NapoleanDynamite]

I’m making fun of the fact that you think those returns are going to be boring. Pretty much anything that has done that over the long term has had significant drawdowns. People tend to think differently when something they own has lost most of its value. Of course anything is possible but to call 30-60% CAGR boring almost makes it seem like that’s your bear case.

Ah...Ok...I get it. No...I wasn't calling 30-60% CAGR boring. That would be earth shatteringly fun. I was trying to communicate that my BTC only (non crypto) allocation was "boring".

And by BTC only I mean the crypto part of my asset allocation is BTC only. I still own all of my equities, a small portion of bond fund, real estate etc.

[jacoavlu]

talking bitcoin >>> talking bitcoin price

[NapoleanDynamite]

talking bitcoin >>> talking bitcoin price

Touche

[ShredtheGnar]

Seems pretty obvious that the crypto craze is a bubble similar to the dot com bubble. New useful technology comes into public eye. Tons of companies start up to take advantage of the new technology. Tons on $$$s get poured in by speculators. Difference I see is that there is minimal regulation compared to the stock market. At some point the bubble will burst. Guessing after the dust settles the most viable crypto entities will remain and thrive. Any ideas on what might bust the bubble? I think a lot of the new, frequent traders of crypto are in for a rude awakening come tax time. My son was quite unaware of the short term capital gains rules and none to happy about it once I explained how it works. Might be some other factors that will kill the MEME/[email protected]#$ coin craze. Would it be better if there was more legitimacy to the crypto sphere? More $$$s and effort put into more worthwhile projects that would speed up utility of useful crypto? Think I have invested in some of the most likely to survive elements but this stuff is evolving so quickly, who knows???

[NapoleanDynamite]

Seems pretty obvious that the crypto craze is a bubble similar to the dot com bubble. New useful technology comes into public eye. Tons of companies start up to take advantage of the new technology. Tons on $$$s get poured in by speculators. Difference I see is that there is minimal regulation compared to the stock market. At some point the bubble will burst. Guessing after the dust settles the most viable crypto entities will remain and thrive. Any ideas on what might bust the bubble? I think a lot of the new, frequent traders of crypto are in for a rude awakening come tax time. My son was quite unaware of the short term capital gains rules and none to happy about it once I explained how it works. Might be some other factors that will kill the MEME/[email protected]#$ coin craze. Would it be better if there was more legitimacy to the crypto sphere? More $$$s and effort put into more worthwhile projects that would speed up utility of useful crypto? Think I have invested in some of the most likely to survive elements but this stuff is evolving so quickly, who knows???

I would suggest (as I have this entire time) to ignore the "crypto" mania and just slowly but surely plod away investing in Bitcoin. I have incurred exactly zero capital gains tax thus far. I also haven't ever paid capital gains tax on my taxable equities account. I will one day....but they will be long term gains or if I die before using them, my kids will have to pay some gains if they are over the 11.7 Million on Estate Tax.

Or if Janet Yellen has her way, I will start paying taxes on unrealized gains.

The most "worthwhile projects" in my opinion are Bitcoin, Lightning and layer 3 technologies being built on Bitcoin. Most of the rest is marketing.

[xraygoggles]

talking bitcoin >>> talking bitcoin price

But isn't bitcoin the best performing asset past decade? I think talking about returns is perfectly reasonable, since it's an outlier.

[DCdoc]

I’m not a crypto-head, but I put in 6 figures into stable coins to stake for 10% returns and have been happy so far.

[chocolatebear11]

I’m not a crypto-head, but I put in 6 figures into stable coins to stake for 10% returns and have been happy so far.

Which platform/exchange?

[nycEMMD]

Well if you have been in the crypto sphere since summer 2020, you have done exceptionally well.

I've been buying crypto since 2018 like I said in my previous post, mostly BTC and ETH (95% of crypto portfolio). Still did pretty good

The important thing is to take some profits. Seeing 10x or 25x or 50x or whatever and thinking it will remain at that level is foolish. Even if you have conviction in a project, sell 50-70% and let the rest ride. At least that's what I've done, and I didn't even make crazy numbers in terms of gains. I have friends who made ~5-10M since last summer, speculating in everything outside bitcoin basically. Some have bought stables to lock in gains, but others are kinda in the whole cult and refuse to let go.

I havent sold a single BTC or ETH yet, I plan on holding until I can use BTC to buy stuff. I really believe in the saying that when BTC is ready to be sold, you won't have to. The only exception I would make to this is if BTC reached max bubble territory on the rainbow chart. I would sell at that point and buy back in later

Rainbow chart is gibberish - it's a model for price, and while all models have some grain of truth to them, it's now dead. Plan B has become a grifter hawking hats at this point, kinda sad and pathetic.

I don't think the rainbow chart is gibberish and I actually use it to make buying decisions. I DCA in no matter what but if the price is at any point below the HODL territory, I buy extra on top of my regular DCA. This has done me well in the last 3 years, I think I'll keep doing that.

Also, don't think Plan B's stock to flow model is dead but I guess everyone has their own opinion on this

[DCdoc]

Which platform/exchange?

I spread it out amongst multiple exchanges and multiple stablecoins (except tether which I think is a house of cards) to diversify location and reduce risk. Rates range from 8-12% on average.

[nycEMMD]

I spread it out amongst multiple exchanges and multiple stablecoins (except tether which I think is a house of cards) to diversify location and reduce risk. Rates range from 8-12% on average.

This is the way

[tomato14]

Anyone putting more money over their regular DCA amount at these prices?

why ask? did something happen beginning of the week?

[nycEMMD]

why ask? did something happen beginning of the week?

I’m assuming everyone on here DCAs in (at least I hope so). I also know that some people, including myself, dump more money in during large dips. I just wanted to see what everyone’s strategy was. Like I was saying above, I usually use the rainbow chart. I also don’t think we’ll ever see BTC below 20k but if that ever happens I might take a loan out to buy BTC (I know, very irresponsible)