Bitcoin is still early

[NapoleanDynamite]

Correct! I've been continuing to stack sats over the past week, and ramped up my purchasing. Those sats are now forever gone from the market supply, along with thousands of other HODLers who bought the dip.

"Few understand this"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nw7lHXuzKo&t=78s

I actually bought a lot over Friday and Saturday too. Shocked to see Jim commenting on the thread again. But to answer his question, yes I was happy to buy some more at a lower price. In the end, my auto DCA stacking is pretty much all I do now. But when there are corrections of >25% I usually buy a little more if I have any extra cash laying around.

[Tim]

im not quite sure what you're asking

from the perspective of custodial lending / borrowing / interest platforms, i assume they have processes in place, but that's one place where users of the platform have exposure to counterparty risk. if the platform screws something up, users could suffer losses

during the drawdown from 67k to 29k, plenty of people got auto liquidated by these platforms. as people had their loans approaching their LTV limits, they get alerts and warnings, but if they don't pay off part of the loan and or post more collateral they will suffer forced liquidation.

also, when the market is moving violently, lots of exchanges have trouble. during the brief wick down to 42k the other night, there were a lot of people trying to buy but couldnt get orders to go through.

not sure if ive addressed what youre talking about. none of it means much to me. as far as bitcoin goes, my position is strictly buy and hold long term

Free distributed markets are wonderful. However, they can become a train wreck. The "safe money" with 10% rates are a cause for concern.
"The May 6, 2010, flash crash,^[1][2][3] also known as the crash of 2:45 or simply the flash crash, was a United States trillion-dollar^[4] stock market crash, which started at 2:32 p.m. EDT and lasted for approximately 36 minutes.^{[5]: 1 "
A trillion dollar loss of collateral value in 36 minutes happened. The value of the pledged securty can lose value and it becomes a train wreck. Users and the platforms both have risk. That is why the regulated have trading halts now.
The US$ has value based upon the guarantee of the government (ultimately taxpayers). I struggle with crypto because it's value is dependent on someone else buying it at a price .
Not saying fiat currencies aren't manipulated, it's more like pick your poison.}

[jacoavlu]

Free distributed markets are wonderful. However, they can become a train wreck. The "safe money" with 10% rates are a cause for concern.
"The May 6, 2010, flash crash,^[1][2][3] also known as the crash of 2:45 or simply the flash crash, was a United States trillion-dollar^[4] stock market crash, which started at 2:32 p.m. EDT and lasted for approximately 36 minutes.^{[5]: 1 "
A trillion dollar loss of collateral value in 36 minutes happened. The value of the pledged securty can lose value and it becomes a train wreck. Users and the platforms both have risk. That is why the regulated have trading halts now.
The US$ has value based upon the guarantee of the government (ultimately taxpayers). I struggle with crypto because it's value is dependent on someone else buying it at a price .
Not saying fiat currencies aren't manipulated, it's more like pick your poison.}

one difference with bitcoin is that you can take self custody and hold it yourself. with equities, 100% is held with a custodian and essentially always available for trade

at last check, something like 2.4M bitcoin (about 13% of current supply) were held on exchanges. lowest number in over 3 years. remainder held off exchange and not available for immediate sale, at least not in the typical markets

of course, numbers can and do occasionally still move very fast. there is always danger in leverage and trading

[Tim]

one difference with bitcoin is that you can take self custody and hold it yourself. with equities, 100% is held with a custodian and essentially always available for trade

at last check, something like 2.4M bitcoin (about 13% of current supply) were held on exchanges. lowest number in over 3 years. remainder held off exchange and not available for immediate sale, at least not in the typical markets

of course, numbers can and do occasionally still move very fast. there is always danger in leverage and trading

And this adds to the spread, thinly traded items (be it crypto or stock) actually have a regulated "market maker" on the exchanges that attempts to keep the order flow going. Bid/Ask spreads make a "stop loss" extremely dangerous in times like the flash crash. Triggering a market order at $50 may result in the next bid at $2 being executed. A much greater loss than was anticipated. The account holder is on the hook either in offline assets or if it was leveraged to the platform.

I personally don't think 13% available for trading is a factor other than the value off 87% is being determined by such a small percentage of an asset. Of course, there is a big difference between price volatility and permanent loss.

[jacoavlu]

And this adds to the spread, thinly traded items (be it crypto or stock) actually have a regulated "market maker" on the exchanges that attempts to keep the order flow going. Bid/Ask spreads make a "stop loss" extremely dangerous in times like the flash crash. Triggering a market order at $50 may result in the next bid at $2 being executed. A much greater loss than was anticipated. The account holder is on the hook either in offline assets or if it was leveraged to the platform.

I personally don't think 13% available for trading is a factor other than the value off 87% is being determined by such a small percentage of an asset. Of course, there is a big difference between price volatility and permanent loss.

if you're interested, you can check out https://data.bitcoinity.org/ lots of data, daily trading volumes, spreads, etc. i wouldn't describe bitcoin as thinly traded

one difference between crypto generally vs US equities market is that there are unregulated exchanges and peer to peer exchanges where trading is happening, which regulated exchanges have to compete with. if a regulated US exchange had offensive spreads then customers will be incentivized to look elsewhere

[xraygoggles]

one difference with bitcoin is that you can take self custody and hold it yourself. with equities, 100% is held with a custodian and essentially always available for trade

at last check, something like 2.4M bitcoin (about 13% of current supply) were held on exchanges. lowest number in over 3 years. remainder held off exchange and not available for immediate sale, at least not in the typical markets

of course, numbers can and do occasionally still move very fast. there is always danger in leverage and trading

I have always wondered with bitcoiners being all about security and privacy etc, why are there no DEXs for bitcoin? They are thriving on Ethereum and many other projects...

[jacoavlu]

I have always wondered with bitcoiners being all about security and privacy etc, why are there no DEXs for bitcoin? They are thriving on Ethereum and many other projects...

i don't know, just a few random thoughts. personally ive never felt like oh i wished there were a dex i could go get bitcoin from. i just don't know much about them. everything has tradeoffs and its own elements of risk. if i want more privacy of kyc coins there are tools like coinjoin that can give better forward anonymity. security, i just want that if i lose my bitcoin it was bc of my own fault. bitcoin base layer does that. is bisq a dex? cause i hear that talked about with bitcoin. there are also peer to peer networks.

just last night on twitter i was hearing about a dex (dydx) that was down bc AWS was having problems lol. not so decentralized. but then people were saying that wasnt really a dex.

[xraygoggles]

i don't know, just a few random thoughts. personally ive never felt like oh i wished there were a dex i could go get bitcoin from. i just don't know much about them. everything has tradeoffs and its own elements of risk. if i want more privacy of kyc coins there are tools like coinjoin that can give better forward anonymity. security, i just want that if i lose my bitcoin it was bc of my own fault. bitcoin base layer does that. is bisq a dex? cause i hear that talked about with bitcoin. there are also peer to peer networks.

just last night on twitter i was hearing about a dex (dydx) that was down bc AWS was having problems lol. not so decentralized. but then people were saying that wasnt really a dex.

I don't know about dydx, but I'm pretty sure Uniswap is the most decentralized DEX - the interface is owned by Uniswap Labs, but the protocol is permissionless.

[nycEMMD]

I have always wondered with bitcoiners being all about security and privacy etc, why are there no DEXs for bitcoin? They are thriving on Ethereum and many other projects...

Probably because people managed to bring bitcoin to DEXes on other blockchains by wrapping it. Why do you need a DEX on the bitcoin blockchain when you can wrap your BTC and trade wBTC on Uniswap?

[xraygoggles]

Probably because people managed to bring bitcoin to DEXes on other blockchains by wrapping it. Why do you need a DEX on the bitcoin blockchain when you can wrap your BTC and trade wBTC on Uniswap?

Well ofc I agree with that, but to hardcore bitcoiners, eth is a scam remember? So wrapped bitcoin is a head-scratcher.

[nycEMMD]

Well ofc I agree with that, but to hardcore bitcoiners, eth is a scam remember? So wrapped bitcoin is a head-scratcher.

I love that pic. I honestly don't know how anyone can be a pure BTC maxi anymore. ETH fills a completely different function and has been more solid than any other crypto asset over the past 6 months. Can't seem to get ETH below 4k for longer than a few hours

[krusebear]

they’re tanks. 5 years easily. S9 came out in 2016 and there’s a lot of them still running. i think something like estimated 25% of network hashrate.

buying a asic for 11K vs buying 11K BTC, what comes out ahead. interesting question...

[jacoavlu]

buying a asic for 11K vs buying 11K BTC, what comes out ahead. interesting question...

ask me in a year

you can play around with numbers here https://insights.braiins.com/en/

can’t know the future

[Dont_know_mind]

I think we just saw the crypto top (or double top). Happy to be proved wrong.
I wonder what a crypto flush out will mean for other risk assets.
There may be 20:1 to 40:1 leverage in the exchange balance sheets. Who knows, they’re unregulated, unaudited.
It seems very different to the internet bubble, which had a business case. This seems to me to be a bubble based on ponzi. Internet bubble was pretty crazy also I guess. Maybe they’re both the same.
Amazing how greed can affect people’s judgement. Wishful thinking. Particularly young males.
Disclaimer: I have no crypto, have never owned any crypto and don’t intend to own any. I know very little about crypto. It’s fascinating to watch as a part of evolving financial history though.

[NapoleanDynamite]

I think we just saw the crypto top (or double top). Happy to be proved wrong.
I wonder what a crypto flush out will mean for other risk assets.
There may be 20:1 to 40:1 leverage in the exchange balance sheets. Who knows, they’re unregulated, unaudited.
It seems very different to the internet bubble, which had a business case. This seems to me to be a bubble based on ponzi. Internet bubble was pretty crazy also I guess. Maybe they’re both the same.
Amazing how greed can affect people’s judgement. Wishful thinking. Particularly young males.
Disclaimer: I have no crypto, have never owned any crypto and don’t intend to own any. I know very little about crypto. It’s fascinating to watch as a part of evolving financial history though.

You may be right...a lot of chartists are trying to call the double top that you speak of. Or you may be wrong and this might just be another short consolidation. Or you might be wrong and they all might trade sideways for another 2 years. I can't predict tomorrow. Or 3 months from now.

But long term I agree/disagree with your analysis in its comparison to the internet bubble of the 2000 time frame. The dot com bubble had ridiculous amounts of leverage and cash flowing in projects that were complete scams or had no future. And most of those projects completely failed.

However, wouldn't you love the opportunity to go back and buy Amazon or Apple stock in 2000 when they were trading at the equivalent of 100 dollars and 1 dollar at their 2000 peaks? You would have had to survive a "long winter" of poor returns for a few years after the bubble "popped", but had we not had the experience these companies might not exist.

Are the vast majority of "cryptos" going to go away? Absolutely. >99% will be gone in 5 years IMO. I still don't lump BTC and any other crypto into the same category. Either way, the ride will continue to be wild with fluctuations. But the long term picture is up and to the right.