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  • Originally posted by billy View Post

    I also "miss out on the profits I couldve gained" by not buying powerball tickets. A $2 ticket could've made me 200 million! Just like not buying bitcoin, missing out wont make me poor. Im not against those making these speculative bets. I am against those saying I will be poor unless I make them, then bringing up doomsday like scenarios to justify why I should buy it (directed NapoleanDynamite here, or "he who should never be named again" in the past posts about gold, not directed at you).

    Even during our most recent lost decade, those just investing in stock/bonds and stayed the course did just fine. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/...100&total3=100 You can play around to test all types of scenarios in this.
    We won’t become poor missing out on speculating on Bitcoin. And probably everyone will be fine and better off anyway.

    My main rationale for not speculating on it is that it could be a slippery slide into degenerate gambling. Maybe that’s my own biases and I’m not open enough to new experiences.

    Anyway, 1 Bitcoin at $1 is one thing but 1 Bitcoin at $18,000 is....

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    • Originally posted by Perry Ict View Post

      Thanks for the explanation. In that first example, it seems like the only real mistake was selling, no? My perception is that, unlike bitcoin or stock in any single company, the S&P 500 is unlikely to go down significantly and stay there for any extended period of time (a 50+ percent loss without recovery within 5 to 10 years, for example, seems improbable to me). Easier said than done on holding through a downturn like in 2000, though.

      My impression is that CAPE is worth thinking about, but probably not enough on its own to make any big decisions. It probably does matter, eventually, in some way, but maybe not significantly enough for it to guide how a person should invest. That's what I think, anyway.
      I think index investing is much more forgiving than individual stock investing. Actually many of my errors were idiosyncratic. I just had to learn the hard way.

      With Cape, similar to SCV, from what I am aware, it has been terrible at predicting returns basically since it was invented (early 90’s). Which to me indicates backward overfitting. Things can change over time.

      I guess this is the thing with boglehead investing. What do you hang your hat on. World index continuing to go up over time or US index going up over time. Maybe it doesn’t matter.

      What’s skill and what is luck. Maybe those who have hung their hat on US equities have been skillful in cottoning onto an underlying truth over this period. Maybe they’ve been lucky.

      Bitcoin reminds me about asymmetric risk. I think if you can find that, that’s not a bad thing.

      Arguably, Bitcoin at $1 was asymetric. Maybe that too is hindsight bias though. Investing is a fascinating game, endlessly charming and sometimes brutal.

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      • Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

        or, don’t try timing the market

        SP500 6% annual return since 1/2000. $10k invested then is now $33.9k
        I can’t resist.
        I think if you employ leverage, it’s hard not to do some market timing. I try not to be below 80% risk allocated. But many slips and a dip. Certainly a few stuff ups for me.

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        • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

          Just a quick comment but misconceptions play a huge part in the public’s perception of something and that’s something Bitcoin will have to overcome. Just like the patient that comes in for a completely unnecessary z-pack. They think you’re an idiot when you don’t give them one.
          Shocked...but we agree on something.

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          • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

            Just a quick comment but misconceptions play a huge part in the public’s perception of something and that’s something Bitcoin will have to overcome. Just like the patient that comes in for a completely unnecessary z-pack. They think you’re an idiot when you don’t give them one.
            But my boogers are green...
            and my last doctor always did it...
            It happens this time every year...
            I don't want it to become pneumonia...
            My temp normally runs at 97...


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            • Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

              But my boogers are green...
              and my last doctor always did it...
              It happens this time every year...
              I don't want it to become pneumonia...
              My temp normally runs at 97...

              Hey the one thing near daily checking of my temperature the last 6 months has shown me is my temp really does normally run in the mid 97's. 97.4, 97.6, etc.

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              • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post

                Out of curiosity I plugged numbers into an investment calculator. EMD has at least $1M. 35% returns for 50 years is $3.3T
                Step by step my friend. Foolish to try to look ahead 50 years.

                My goal is to hit 8 figures in tax advantaged retirement accounts within the next 5-7 years. Can be more than achieved if I can mirror the last 5-7 years. This year was much stronger than 35% for me but clearly an anomaly, with 4 of my current holdings besting 60% YTD (people like disclosures, one of them I owned for less than YTD). Having been able to successfully sell high and buy back lower on technicals I managed to beat this stated fund performance.

                Then I'll see what the next 43-45 years bring.

                Thanks all for pushing me to be enhance my skills.

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                • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                  Now you’re out in left field. The American dependence on the dollar? The world depends on the dollar. There are many, many steps between a currency being the reserve currency of the world and the collapse of that currency. It’s a good thing you’re not a Bitcoin salesman.
                  Once again...as if on cue, here is a zoom meeting that occurred yesterday. Watch the first 2-5 minutes to understand who these two gentleman are. Then fast forward to the 52:00 mark to hear what they have to say about Bitcoin and Digital currencies. Yes, that is the CEO/founder of Blackrock, Larry Fink who has 7.3 Trillion in Assets under management. Yes, he did just say that the dollar losing it's reserve currency status is on their radar. Now do I seem so far out in left field?

                  When some random guy on WCI's forum says it, who cares. But when Larry Fink says it, you might want to listen.

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKxTSk8cONw


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                  • Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post
                    Now do I seem so far out in left field?
                    Yes.

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                    • Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

                      But my boogers are green...
                      and my last doctor always did it...
                      It happens this time every year...
                      I don't want it to become pneumonia...
                      My temp normally runs at 97...

                      the serious lack of these micro-aggressions now in my life has been an amazing transformation....
                      a still real response along those lines: "but theylll die doctor without this...." pointing to the child making tiktoks.....

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                      • Originally posted by EntrepreneurMD View Post

                        Step by step my friend. Foolish to try to look ahead 50 years.

                        My goal is to hit 8 figures in tax advantaged retirement accounts within the next 5-7 years. Can be more than achieved if I can mirror the last 5-7 years. This year was much stronger than 35% for me but clearly an anomaly, with 4 of my current holdings besting 60% YTD (people like disclosures, one of them I owned for less than YTD). Having been able to successfully sell high and buy back lower on technicals I managed to beat this stated fund performance.

                        Then I'll see what the next 43-45 years bring.

                        Thanks all for pushing me to be enhance my skills.
                        Yeah, I'm up 333.7% YTD but I know this isn't realistic to keep up. I just found/got lucky with a once in a decade/generation investment/timing. I do plan on trying to get at least 20-30% annually with the aggressive part of my portfolio going forward though.

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                        • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                          Yes.
                          Then you should probably study a little more history. Go back farther than the Civil War and you might learn something Rio Lobo.

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                          • Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post

                            Then you should probably study a little more history. Go back farther than the Civil War and you might learn something Rio Lobo.
                            I don't need to study history for my financial endeavors. I've got a well diversified portfolio and don't need to even mess with digital currencies at this point. I'm a terribly boring investor but yet I'll live a comfortable life and likely pass down a fairly significant portfolio. While it may be fun to place a small position of one's portfolio into riskier investments, it's not something I've developed the desire to do at this point. I'd rather bet on sports. Even if the dollar collapses, I'll still be positioned better than most but that's not something I need to even think about at this point.

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                            • if nothing else it is interesting to see big entities dipping their toe in the water. can't know if it's mostly fomo, making money from transactional fees (twitter/square, paypal, brokerages), inflation hedge, etc

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                              • The USD losing its reserve currency status and bitcoin becoming the reserve currency have two very different likelihoods of occurring- the reserve currency needs relative stability in price, something Bitcoin has yet to achieve. Thoughts of the USD losing its reserve status to the EURO has also been contemplated/discussed in the recent past- that didn't mean we should've ran to the banks to change all our money to euros, or play with FOREX accounts for speculative trading. For the record, blackrock also put out white papers on FOREX type trading and spoke about getting involved with foreign exchange trading in the past- so blackrock talking about and getting involved in bitcoin does not mean anything to me.

                                Anyway, I stand by my previous post that with boring investing I will not be poor, and if the US dollar gets devalued enough to cause an economic crisis causing all my index funds (including the international holdings) to crash for prolong periods of time, investing in bitcoin would not have made a difference in my being wealthy vs poor.

                                Those investing in BTC, good luck. I'm not going to convince anyone who drank the koolaid any differently, and that's fine. Just don't tell me I'm making a mistake by not investing in a speculative investment bc "I haven't researched it enough."

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