Bitcoin is still early

[chucki]

anyone wants to see a cool visualization of the bitcoin mempool

https://bits.monospace.live/

I can see, that over time, you have become a true bitcioner. You kept an open mind, didn't let ego or preconceived notions be a roadblock, and did the hard work. Kudos to you. If one puts in the time and really learns about bitcoin, it's almost impossible not to become a fan. The system is almost perfect. Most people form opinions based on information touted by corporate media or get easily distracted by the marketing of the sh!tcoin casino. I can already predict that in due time many people in this forum will regret dismissing it or rejecting it based on little information or poor advice from financial advisors and talking heads on Bloomberg and octogenerian billionaires.

[jacoavlu]

I can see, that over time, you have become a true bitcioner. You kept an open mind, didn't let ego or preconceived notions be a roadblock, and did the hard work. Kudos to you. If one puts in the time and really learns about bitcoin, it's almost impossible not to become a fan. The system is almost perfect. Most people form opinions based on information touted by corporate media or get easily distracted by the marketing of the sh!tcoin casino. I can already predict that in due time many people in this forum will regret dismissing it or rejecting it based on little information or poor advice from financial advisors and talking heads on Bloomberg and octogenerian billionaires.

lol yeah this evening i watched michael saylor on “tucker carlson today”. 80 minutes, saylor talked for about 78 of those minutes

https://www.bitchute.com/video/rUiqtHqvlwiF/

[NapoleanDynamite]

Getting back to volcano bonds, since that is the most interesting/bold/weird af thing going on in the btc world:

It's increased to 1 billion dollars now. I still think it's a poorly concocted scheme, not only because of the intermediaries involved, but the actual execution of the project.

What are the odds that an authoritarian leader (& his cronies) of an unstable country will abscond with a large proportion of the funds, whether through incompetence or malevolence? Fairly high.

What do the citizens of said country get from this? Zilch. The only people who benefit will be wealthy early Bitcoiners who move there to save taxes, then move away soon thereafter. Oh, also Blockstream, who gets the land if/when this project fails. Sounds like a sucker's bet for the native population if you ask me.

Remember Hanlon's razor: 'Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.'

Preston Pysh just released a very good podcast with Samson Mow and Adam Back. I suggest giving it a listen if you are curious about the El Salvador Bond offering. I have had interactions in the past with both Dr. Back and Samson Mow and they are both quality humans IMO. I looked very hard at the Blockstream Mining Note with the initial traunch in April/May of this year. It was not available to US investors (I tried to make it happen), otherwise I would have invested in it. The BMN has done very well so far, and I wish I could have found a way to invest.

I think the bond offering will end up working out well for both El Salvador and a certain subset of investors. Time will tell of course and in 5-10 years we will have the answer. As a "small fry" individual investor I would just buy BTC and HODL. But if I had to make a decision on buying a 10 year UST Bond vs this bond as a large institutional investor, I would choose the Volcano Bond.

[chucki]

Do you know those guys? I had a twitter exchange with Adam Back. I saved the screenshots because there's a decent chance he's Satoshi.

[NapoleanDynamite]

Do you know those guys? I had a twitter exchange with Adam Back. I saved the screenshots because there's a decent chance he's Satoshi.

I wouldn't say "I know those guys"....but I have exchanged some emails with Dr. Back and have spoken with/exchanged emails/tweets on many occasions with Samson Mow. I don't want to mislead anyone and act like we are good friends. And although it's possible Back is Satoshi, I think it is more likely he isn't. Either way, I'm willing to bet that he has to have enough money from BTC to retire more wealthy than 99.999% of the world and ride off into the sunset. Yet he continues to work. And if you listen to him, the vast majority if his work is to improve humanity.

So I do think that the motives of Blockstream (although they are a business and the goal of a business is to turn a profit) are good in issuing this bond offering.

[pysibal]

Hey, remember when I asked what happens when there is no incentive to mine bitcoin and secure the network (after all bitcoin is mined, or from another reason)? This talk of banning mining in Europe may make that problem relevant in the more immediate term.

If, theoretically, all miners stopped now and forever, what would happen?

[East coast]

I think the bond offering will end up working out well for both El Salvador and a certain subset of investors. Time will tell of course and in 5-10 years we will have the answer. As a "small fry" individual investor I would just buy BTC and HODL. But if I had to make a decision on buying a 10 year UST Bond vs this bond as a large institutional investor, I would choose the Volcano Bond.

I'm going to be smug and respond by saying 'tell me you are not in finance, with out telling me you are not in finance". (BTW, sorry I quoted just your comment as others have mentioned it as well without stating any of the below obviousness...)

I won't regurgitate the mathematical answer as you can go to someone like Matt Levine's newsletter on bloomberg and get it straight from him. but there is no advantage in the Volcano bond relative to 1) buy bitcoin yourself and 2) buy already available and tradable El Salvador bonds. If you follow those two steps you get 1) more exposure to bitcoin all yourself (double, in fact!!!) and 2) better paying interest rate on the plain old boring sovereign bonds than the volcano bonds at the same exact exposure to the underlying risks (will this country that very few people trust pay me back my money)!

There is no secret to this other than that people (still learning how the world of finance works) are so blinded by the word 'bitcoin' (amongst other hot terms!).

There is something about 'citizenship access' if that really tickles your fancy, but if you really think institutional investors are fooled by something stupid, then idk what to say (disclaimer, there are probably some really stupid II's out there)

[NapoleanDynamite]

I'm going to be smug and respond by saying 'tell me you are not in finance, with out telling me you are not in finance". (BTW, sorry I quoted just your comment as others have mentioned it as well without stating any of the below obviousness...)

I won't regurgitate the mathematical answer as you can go to someone like Matt Levine's newsletter on bloomberg and get it straight from him. but there is no advantage in the Volcano bond relative to 1) buy bitcoin yourself and 2) buy already available and tradable El Salvador bonds. If you follow those two steps you get 1) more exposure to bitcoin all yourself (double, in fact!!!) and 2) better paying interest rate on the plain old boring sovereign bonds than the volcano bonds at the same exact exposure to the underlying risks (will this country that very few people trust pay me back my money)!

There is no secret to this other than that people (still learning how the world of finance works) are so blinded by the word 'bitcoin' (amongst other hot terms!).

There is something about 'citizenship access' if that really tickles your fancy, but if you really think institutional investors are fooled by something stupid, then idk what to say (disclaimer, there are probably some really stupid II's out there)

Ok...Since you came in hot...I will too.

"Tell me you don't know how to read without telling me you don't know how to read."

Literally, the sentence prior to what you bolded from my statement said "I would just buy BTC and HODL". That's a pretty clear statement. And if you read any of this thread, that is what I have stated for about 19 months now. So your argument that one should buy BTC instead of the bond we are in agreement.

As for buying already tradable El Salvador Bonds vs this bond offering...I mentioned nothing about other bonds. I made one statement. "If I had to make a choice between UST Bond vs this bond"....That's a pretty clear statement. I'm not discussing other bonds or any other investments at all for that matter. So try again.

The good news...there are very few if any people that will need to make this decision.

Enjoy your day.

[jacoavlu]

Hey, remember when I asked what happens when there is no incentive to mine bitcoin and secure the network (after all bitcoin is mined, or from another reason)? This talk of banning mining in Europe may make that problem relevant in the more immediate term.

If, theoretically, all miners stopped now and forever, what would happen?

if all mining stopped bitcoin would no longer exist. but all miners won't stop.

[jacoavlu]

I'm going to be smug and respond by saying 'tell me you are not in finance, with out telling me you are not in finance". (BTW, sorry I quoted just your comment as others have mentioned it as well without stating any of the below obviousness...)

I won't regurgitate the mathematical answer as you can go to someone like Matt Levine's newsletter on bloomberg and get it straight from him. but there is no advantage in the Volcano bond relative to 1) buy bitcoin yourself and 2) buy already available and tradable El Salvador bonds. If you follow those two steps you get 1) more exposure to bitcoin all yourself (double, in fact!!!) and 2) better paying interest rate on the plain old boring sovereign bonds than the volcano bonds at the same exact exposure to the underlying risks (will this country that very few people trust pay me back my money)!

There is no secret to this other than that people (still learning how the world of finance works) are so blinded by the word 'bitcoin' (amongst other hot terms!).

There is something about 'citizenship access' if that really tickles your fancy, but if you really think institutional investors are fooled by something stupid, then idk what to say (disclaimer, there are probably some really stupid II's out there)

the 1) buy bitcoin yourself is the problem for a lot of entities. their charters don't allow. i would guess some of the buyers of these el sal bonds will be the same people that lined up to buy microstrategy bonds and convertible notes.

[xraygoggles]

I'm going to be smug and respond by saying 'tell me you are not in finance, with out telling me you are not in finance". (BTW, sorry I quoted just your comment as others have mentioned it as well without stating any of the below obviousness...)

I won't regurgitate the mathematical answer as you can go to someone like Matt Levine's newsletter on bloomberg and get it straight from him. but there is no advantage in the Volcano bond relative to 1) buy bitcoin yourself and 2) buy already available and tradable El Salvador bonds. If you follow those two steps you get 1) more exposure to bitcoin all yourself (double, in fact!!!) and 2) better paying interest rate on the plain old boring sovereign bonds than the volcano bonds at the same exact exposure to the underlying risks (will this country that very few people trust pay me back my money)!

There is no secret to this other than that people (still learning how the world of finance works) are so blinded by the word 'bitcoin' (amongst other hot terms!).

There is something about 'citizenship access' if that really tickles your fancy, but if you really think institutional investors are fooled by something stupid, then idk what to say (disclaimer, there are probably some really stupid II's out there)

I couldn't have said it better myself. No sophisticated investor would purchase these volcano bonds, given the alternatives.

& I second Matt Levine's take on it as well. He really is the goat at explaining sometimes complex financial topics in a hilarious and lucid manner.

However: that doesn't mean a bunch of crypto people won't buy it, whether as an experiment, or to be a part of the club, or whatever...

[xraygoggles]

Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road and long-time bitcoin/crypto advocate, is selling NFTs on ETH (the horror!) to fund other prisoners' activites, and his own freedom fund. Btw, current auction price is 200 ETH.

But TBMers (toxic bitcoin maxis) on social media are haranguing him - telltale sign of a cult. Lesson: don't be a TBMer.

[Tangler]

Ok, I know zero.

I think it is reasonable to be less ignorant.

Two questions:

1. best way to learn? educational materials

2. how would you start? How do you invest in bitcoin for example?

I am unlikely to invest more than a tiny amount just to learn but curious.

Educating me is often like fertilizing the concrete.

I think it might be a fool’s errand but i am going to try.

[ShredtheGnar]

Ok, I know zero.

I think it is reasonable to be less ignorant.

Two questions:

1. best way to learn? educational materials

2. how would you start? How do you invest in bitcoin for example?

I am unlikely to invest more than a tiny amount just to learn but curious.

Educating me is often like fertilizing the concrete.

I think it might be a fool’s errand but i am going to try.

For #1 start here: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

[jacoavlu]

Ok, I know zero.

I think it is reasonable to be less ignorant.

Two questions:

1. best way to learn? educational materials

2. how would you start? How do you invest in bitcoin for example?

I am unlikely to invest more than a tiny amount just to learn but curious.

Educating me is often like fertilizing the concrete.

I think it might be a fool’s errand but i am going to try.

kinda depends what suits your fancy. podcasts? reading material? interested in more about the base philosophy? technical aspects?

as far as buying, getting started I'd recommend strike as long as you're not looking to invest in one sizeable lump sum.