Bitcoin is still early

[jacoavlu]

This is also a neat website but how often does it update? It still has Tesla at $757B market cap so I'm not sure if the BTC values have been updated. But aside from the BTC related companies it just shows that the BTC holdings are a tiny amount of their overall company.

i think its updated pretty often but dont know. as noted earlier in the thread im not heavy in the camp of "institutional money is coming so the price will pump".

[jacoavlu]

The more we see mayors, states, and big companies (and their lobbyists) adopting Bitcoin, the lower the risk of a mining ban, IMO. There's currently 5 or 6 members of Congress who personally own Bitcoin, but they're all of one party. Having more politicians like Mayor Eric Adams of NYC adopt Bitcoin is HUGE for ensuring its success, so it's a bipartisan issue.

If Bitcoin is banned in the West (which I agree is looking increasingly less likely) I do believe it would be a near death-knell for Bitcoin. Where else would miners go? Iran, Russia, back to China?

some of the politician stuff is more noise than signal. we will see.

i wouldnt see a miner ban as a death knell. lots of mining would still happen in the US even if the scenario you mentioned did occur.



there are some smart people who believe the future of mining will squeeze out the midsize players leaving nation states and massive energy companies, and then very small miners like individuals and oilmen with a couple hash huts and a few dozen asics running off stranded natgas

[Dusn]

I agree with everything you said. To expand on your last point, it's extremely unlikely the US govt would ban BTC outright. To use a phrase from the 2008 crash, it's now too big to fail. Too much institutional money has poured into BTC, like you said there's a lot of companies that are publicly listed and either deal with BTC or hold BTC on their balance sheets. These people are the same people that lobby congress and give tens of millions of dollars to congressional campaigns. You could have made an argument for a coordinated ban by Western nations in 2017 but I don't think that argument stands in 2021. it's just too big to fail.

Additionally, the US is looking into regulating crypto in general which will add legitimacy, further reducing the already small risk of an outright ban by western nations. BTC is here to stay, crypto is here to stay

Once it stops growing, people will lose interest. Does anyone here own crypto for any reason besides hoping that they can sell it for a larger amount later on? Bitcoin can’t issue dividends to make up for poor growth.

So if it stops growing for long enough, people will get bored and it will drop. Then people will buy again at “low” prices, hoping for another wave, which will create another wave. And the process will repeat itself.

At some point, years from now, people will grow bored of the entire thing. The people who keep buying at the top and losing their money will have learned their lesson, then the people trying to buy at the bottom will lose their money too, and some new form of speculation will come along.

[jacoavlu]

Once it stops growing, people will lose interest. Does anyone here own crypto for any reason besides hoping that they can sell it for a larger amount later on? Bitcoin can’t issue dividends to make up for poor growth.

So if it stops growing for long enough, people will get bored and it will drop. Then people will buy again at “low” prices, hoping for another wave, which will create another wave. And the process will repeat itself.

At some point, years from now, people will grow bored of the entire thing. The people who keep buying at the top and losing their money will have learned their lesson, then the people trying to buy at the bottom will lose their money too, and some new form of speculation will come along.

in a way we agree. over the long term it either fails and goes to zero, or the logic alternative is it just keeps going up.

[Dusn]

in a way we agree. over the long term it either fails and goes to zero, or the logic alternative is it just keeps going up.

yeah but the key difference between crypto and stocks is that crypto cannot offer dividends if it is not doing well.

If a stock is not growing and does not have a prospect of appreciation then they need to start paying their shareholders with dividends or their stock will become worthless. If their stock becomes worthless it has a real impact on the company and the shareholders have a real ownership of the company.

Bitcoin can’t offer dividends. It’s not even shiny, like gold. It’s a currency with no govt to back it up. The best it can hope for in the long run is to become like a collectors item, like stamps.

[jacoavlu]

yeah but the key difference between crypto and stocks is that crypto cannot offer dividends if it is not doing well.

If a stock is not growing and does not have a prospect of appreciation then they need to start paying their shareholders with dividends or their stock will become
worthless.

Bitcoin can’t do that. It’s not even shiny, like gold. The best it can hope for in the long run is to become like a collectors item, like stamps.

you are correct that bitcoin can't pay a dividend. it doesn't really make sense to equate it to a stock.

the best it can hope for long term is adoption as a global monetary standard. im not in the hopium camp of thinking theres any degree of certainty that happens. i think a middle ground is more likely. but to say best case scenario is to be a collectors item well i respectfully disagree and i would challenge that you probably havent examined it very seriously

[Dusn]

you are correct that bitcoin can't pay a dividend. it doesn't really make sense to equate it to a stock.

the best it can hope for long term is adoption as a global monetary standard. im not in the hopium camp of thinking theres any degree of certainty that happens. i think a middle ground is more likely. but to say best case scenario is to be a collectors item well i respectfully disagree and i would challenge that you probably havent examined it very seriously

You’re right. It could become a monetary standard. But in order to become a monetary standard, it needs some sort of stability in value. Unfortunately, having a stable value makes it less useful as a high-risk/high-return investment.

I’m opening to changing my mind. I’m actually trying to see if there are concrete answers to concerns that I and many other have with Bitcoin as an investment

[jacoavlu]

You’re right. It could become a monetary standard. But in order to become a monetary standard, it needs some sort of stability in value. Unfortunately, having a stable value makes it less useful as a high-risk/high-return investment.

I’m opening to changing my mind. I’m actually trying to see if there are concrete answers to concerns that I and many other have with Bitcoin as an investment

"stability in value" is a relative term. 1 bitcoin is always 1 bitcoin. is it the value of bitcoin that is volatile, or USD?

if you have questions, ask

[nycEMMD]

Bitcoin can’t offer dividends. It’s not even shiny, like gold. It’s a currency with no govt to back it up. The best it can hope for in the long run is to become like a collectors item, like stamps.

LMAO dude you’re cracking me up. Please read some more

[chucki]

Bitcoin will stop going up when it becomes the global reserve currency and price discovery is achieved. We will no longer measure BTC in dollars. Dollars (if they still exist) will be used as a medium of exchange and bitcoin will the be the settlement layer. Not sure if this happens in 20, 50 or 100+ years -- Bitcoin is inevitable.

[xraygoggles]

Bitcoin will stop going up when it becomes the global reserve currency and price discovery is achieved. We will no longer measure BTC in dollars. Dollars (if they still exist) will be used as a medium of exchange and bitcoin will the be the settlement layer. Not sure if this happens in 20, 50 or 100+ years -- Bitcoin is inevitable.

Eh, you have definitely been ODing on that hopium/copium.

Realistically, it will emerge as a SoV, albeit volatile for many years until gold MC is reached. Anything beyond that doesn't really make any sense.

[chucki]

Eh, you have definitely been ODing on that hopium/copium.

Realistically, it will emerge as a SoV, albeit volatile for many years until gold MC is reached. Anything beyond that doesn't really make any sense.

Agree to disagree. The bond market/US-Treasuries will be disrupted.

[CordMcNally]

I’ve decided that instead of calling something the good standard in medicine, I’m going to start calling it the bitcoin standard.

[jacoavlu]

I’ve decided that instead of calling something the good standard in medicine, I’m going to start calling it the bitcoin standard.

not the cardano standard?

[nycEMMD]

Bitcoin will stop going up when it becomes the global reserve currency and price discovery is achieved. We will no longer measure BTC in dollars. Dollars (if they still exist) will be used as a medium of exchange and bitcoin will the be the settlement layer. Not sure if this happens in 20, 50 or 100+ years -- Bitcoin is inevitable.

Fully agree with everything you said, couldn't have said it better