Bitcoin is still early

[SpacemanSpiff12]

exactly

At a certain value, people would take USD. I’m wondering what that value is for BTC holders on this site.

[nycEMMD]

i'm mild-moderately interested in having some bitcoin as a small percentage of my portfolio as i've found the arguments put forth in this thread mildly compelling.

however the lack of reputable brokers or marketplaces or perceived confusion on my part about how to actually purchase and keep bitcoin is my main hurdle.

like if fidelity or vanguard allowed me to buy a portion of a bitcoin then i'd buy it and be done with it.

this bitcoin stuff is somewhat interesting to me but not to the point where i want to put a lot of hours into researching it and navigating unfamiliar marketplaces and brokers to buy a bitcoin.

There's trade offs to each option you have:

- You can buy GBTC in your fidelity or vanguard account, however you're not getting the full value of BTC that you are paying for. You also have no custody of your coins and have no option to take custody of your coins

- You can open an account with one of the centralized exchanges like coinbase (pro please), kucoin, gemini, binance.us, crypto.com etc, buy your BTC there and keep it there. You don't own the keys so just like your bank account, the money isn't really fully in your possession and the bank could just take it at any point. Same thing with the exchanges, the crypto is not in your custody, it's owned by the exchange but they promise to let you take it out when you request it. If you set up your security properly on these exchanges, you will likely have the same level of security you get from your bank account (set up 2FA by actually using an authenticator app/yubikey and not your phone number, activate whitelisted addresses so nobody can withdraw for days from your account) You're trading full ownership of your crypto for ease of use

- You can spend a few hours to educate yourself about the different type of wallets available, understand how hardware wallets work, understand how to safely store your seed phrase and buy a hardware wallet and transfer all your btc to it. Even better, create a multi-sig wallet where one of the sigs is your hardware wallet and spread the other keys around. Full ownership of your crypto, no government organization can come to the exchange and request them to withhold your funds and take your funds away. Downside is that you have to do some reading. Alternatively, you can ask those questions here and we can answer them for you

[nycEMMD]

At what valuation in USD would you sell 50% of your holdings? Say in the next two years.

This month? BTC at 170k. Next month? 180k. I just use the rainbow chart, if we're in max bubble territory i plan to sell and wait for the dip. I started buying in mid 2018 so never had to sell yet and idk if we'll ever have a swing like that again, especially with institutional investors taking large positions in BTC now, likely stabilizing the price. If it's in any other phases of the rainbow chart I DCA in every week. If it's in any phase below the HODL! phase i DCA every week and add extra money on top of that with each paycheck, basically any extra money I have left over I throw at it.

If we never hit max bubble territory again, i'll likely never actually sell for fiat. I truly believe that when BTC is ready to be sold, I won't have to

[jacoavlu]

This month? BTC at 170k. Next month? 180k. I just use the rainbow chart, if we're in max bubble territory i plan to sell and wait for the dip. I started buying in mid 2018 so never had to sell yet and idk if we'll ever have a swing like that again, especially with institutional investors taking large positions in BTC now, likely stabilizing the price. If it's in any other phases of the rainbow chart I DCA in every week. If it's in any phase below the HODL! phase i DCA every week and add extra money on top of that with each paycheck, basically any extra money I have left over I throw at it.

If we never hit max bubble territory again, i'll likely never actually sell for fiat. I truly believe that when BTC is ready to be sold, I won't have to

folks like to talk about institutions investing but since microstrategy, tesla, and square announced it's been pretty quiet. eventually (soon?) if there aren't more significant announcements, that narrative will grow tired

[nycEMMD]

folks like to talk about institutions investing but since microstrategy, tesla, and square announced it's been pretty quiet. eventually (soon?) if there aren't more significant announcements, that narrative will grow tired

I think large institutional involvement will just decrease volatility. They have large amounts of capital that they can get their hands on at a moment's notice so any dip gets bought up before it drops too far, any large pump gets sold before it runs off. Just decreased volatility now that the big boys have arrived

[Nysoz]

Not sure if it’s the same or not but when Tesla was included into the s&p and millions of shares were locked up in funds it was supposed to decrease the volatility.

We see how that’s gone since then lol.

[jacoavlu]

you dont get a lot of upside without a lot of volatility

[CordMcNally]

exactly

So you wouldn't sell?

[jacoavlu]

So you wouldn't sell?

nothing occurs in a vacuum.

if 1.5 years from now btc were 500k would I sell it, is that what you're asking? who knows. if equity valuations and real estate and other assets keep inflating and fixed income yields are at the floor, well no I almost certainly wouldn't. it's not as if i'm also not continuing to invest money in equities now anyway

now if equity and steel sport watch prices tanked concurrently while bitcoin 10x's, well then maybe.

im a mid career doc probably about same age as you. its not like im retiring either way. so as of today, for me to sell in the near term we'd have to see a meteoric rise to the point it would be a life altering amount of money. and that would take a lot.

how about you?

[Lordosis]

Maybe I'm missing the message. Some people advocate to have a percentage somewhere between 1 and 10% of their portfolio in bitcoin. It is not really for me but it probably would not sink anybody either.

However everybody is talking about holding on and buying more and with the major gains over the past year I imagine it is way more than a small percentage of some people's portfolio. Are people actually rebalancing?

5% of your portfolio is different than 25 to 50%


Because when it takes a 50% dive and you bail out that actually hurts quite a bit.

When it takes a 50% dive and you pile in expecting it to rebound to all time highs and it does not that will hurt even worse!

[CordMcNally]

nothing occurs in a vacuum.

if 1.5 years from now btc were 500k would I sell it, is that what you're asking? who knows. if equity valuations and real estate and other assets keep inflating and fixed income yields are at the floor, well no I almost certainly wouldn't. it's not as if i'm also not continuing to invest money in equities now anyway

now if equity and steel sport watch prices tanked concurrently while bitcoin 10x's, well then maybe.

im a mid career doc probably about same age as you. its not like im retiring either way. so as of today, for me to sell in the near term we'd have to see a meteoric rise to the point it would be a life altering amount of money. and that would take a lot.

how about you?

With all due respect, I'm almost certain that you're older than me. I'm mid 30s.

I have no plans on selling unless it becomes something crazy where I could retire immediately.

[jacoavlu]

With all due respect, I'm almost certain that you're older than me. I'm mid 30s.

I have no plans on selling unless it becomes something crazy where I could retire immediately.

you are correct. but you're a mod so you probably know my name and could google me and find out.

anyway, yeah we feel about the same

...

its actually reasonable practice to consider a 10x rise, with respect to your custody / security / backup setup. would you feel comfortable with your bitcoin held the way it is, if the price 10x'd? would your spouse / heirs be able to access and control your coins if you got hit by a bus?

[CordMcNally]

its actually reasonable practice to consider a 10x rise, with respect to your custody / security / backup setup. would you feel comfortable with your bitcoin held the way it is, if the price 10x'd? would your spouse / heirs be able to access and control your coins if you got hit by a bus?

I would probably keep it where it is. My wife would be able to access it but if we got hit by the same bus then we'd run into some difficulties.

[jacoavlu]

I would probably keep it where it is. My wife would be able to access it but if we got hit by the same bus then we'd run into some difficulties.

if 10x gain would be significant funds, you should self custody and make a plan. you just never know

[CordMcNally]

if 10x gain would be significant funds, you should self custody and make a plan. you just never know

At some point I would, just not sure where that point is. I just know it isn't right now.