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  • Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

    Maybe I will get lucky and VTI will become a meme stock :P
    Better start pumping it over on r/WSB.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by blippi View Post
      how many potential investments right now have at least a 1% chance of dramatically increasing in value?

      i am still quite ignorant, but as an outsider all these comments to the effect of “there is a chance this could turn out to be really huge” while talking about “bull cycles” and graphs showing crashes and recoveries, sound like people justifying what they are investing in when some part of them knows there is a good chance it will tank.
      This is how I know my messaging missed the mark. I was trying to present it for anyone who doesn't believe in BTC. Hence the use of 1%.

      I (and many other very educated people) believe there is a very high chance of the above chart occurring. By high chance I mean far greater than 50% chance. So some of you (not the above poster) can keep digging in your heals and ignoring what is becoming painfully obvious. The fact that this chart even exists should make people stop and think. Could I be missing something here?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by blippi View Post
        how many potential investments right now have at least a 1% chance of dramatically increasing in value?

        i am still quite ignorant, but as an outsider all these comments to the effect of “there is a chance this could turn out to be really huge” while talking about “bull cycles” and graphs showing crashes and recoveries, sound like people justifying what they are investing in when some part of them knows there is a good chance it will tank.
        Oh, it will definitely tank - that's the price you pay for high volatility in both directions. But if you zoom out, there is a clear uptrend.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post

          Someone way smarter than me, just broke down what I was discussing and included the below graphic of their findings. I understand that you might not agree with some of the assumptions that are made here, but if there is even a 1% chance of this being correct, then it supports my opinion that high net worth individuals should hold some BTC in their portfolio. Only including Store of Value, this suggests BTC price will >200X from here. This does not factor in the possibility that BTC could one day be used as a Means of Exchange.
          This is tremendous hopium. I don’t understand how Btc is going to capture any of the real estate market. Houses being priced in btc doesn’t mean any of the market is captured.

          I have no idea on the bonds thing either.

          fine art is basically laundering and anyone that was going to launder via Bitcoin is probably already doing so and will have a harder time in the future as it gets under increasing scrutiny

          Comment


          • Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post

            This is how I know my messaging missed the mark. I was trying to present it for anyone who doesn't believe in BTC. Hence the use of 1%.

            I (and many other very educated people) believe there is a very high chance of the above chart occurring. By high chance I mean far greater than 50% chance. So some of you (not the above poster) can keep digging in your heals and ignoring what is becoming painfully obvious. The fact that this chart even exists should make people stop and think. Could I be missing something here?
            I'm on the BTC train but the above is just ridiculous. Have you seen some of the charts out there on the interwebs? A chart means nothing.

            Click image for larger version

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            Just the fact the above chart exists should make you think.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

              I'm on the BTC train but the above is just ridiculous. Have you seen some of the charts out there on the interwebs? A chart means nothing.

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              Just the fact the above chart exists should make you think.
              But wait, there's more! venmo now in the next 10 hours and you get a free mcnally hat!


              Comment


              • Originally posted by billy View Post

                But wait, there's more! venmo now in the next 10 hours and you get a free mcnally hat!

                Plus a small shipping and handling fee.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                  I'm on the BTC train but the above is just ridiculous. Have you seen some of the charts out there on the interwebs? A chart means nothing.

                  Click image for larger version

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                  Just the fact the above chart exists should make you think.
                  Cord...you have been one of the biggest skeptics since I started this in 5/2020. Hearing that "you are on the BTC train" is actually kind of funny to me. Below is an exchange we had from one year ago in this thread. Your response is in bold. My statement is above it. So far we have had a correction of 50% (I said 10, 20 or 60) and I stated BTC would be in the 6 figure range in 1-5 years. We aren't there yet, but we are well on the way. One year ago the BTC price was 15K.

                  realize you all think I just pull these numbers out of a hat....but I assure you there is a lot of research/time that goes in to them. There is very good reason to believe that BTC will first take a huge chunk of the 12Trillion dollar gold market (it already has). Next up is the bond market. That is somewhere between a 200 and 400 Trillion dollar market. It is currently taking a small amount and will take a huge chunk of that market. The real estate market is still debated because it is so far out. But these things are very likely to occur. We can check in with you again in a year or two to see if your opinion has changed again. Mine hasn't changed much in the past 1-2 years.

                  Thanks,


                  CordMcNally
                  Moderator
                  • Join Date: Jan 2017
                  • Posts: 7931

                  #66
                  11-17-2020, 05:45 PM
                  Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post
                  That's humorous. I am not Nostradamus.

                  But I see Bitcoin's value in the 6 figure range in the next 1-5 years and the 7 figure range in the next 1-10 year range. When these things occur and what is the "top" I would not attempt to predict in any more specific manner. I will say that the "top" may not be for many years or decades. There will likely be "tops" and significant volatility along the way, although I think the volatility (on a percentage basis) will be less than the last 10 years. I expect some significant volatility over the next 12 months.
                  Also it's fine to keep making fun of me. Time will be the ultimate judge. Right now is a good time for me. At some point there will be a 10%, 20%, or 60% drop and you will be making fun of me...but if that drop is from 100K to 40K, then it's likely I'm still doing all right.

                  So there is no price at which you would think it would be a bubble? It could go up to $1M in the next year (within the range you've given) and you'll still think there's $1M of intrinsic value there and it isn't a bubble? I'm not here to make fun of people with speculative investments. I honestly hope it works out for you. Whether it goes to $1M or $0 it will have no bearing on my investments. It just isn't for me but that doesn't mean there aren't people out there that fancy that kind of thing. Kind of like bologna but in reverse because bologna is definitely for me.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Panscan View Post

                    This is tremendous hopium. I don’t understand how Btc is going to capture any of the real estate market. Houses being priced in btc doesn’t mean any of the market is captured.

                    I have no idea on the bonds thing either.

                    fine art is basically laundering and anyone that was going to launder via Bitcoin is probably already doing so and will have a harder time in the future as it gets under increasing scrutiny
                    The "Bond thing" is coming...and gonna hit hard. Real Estate will be much later in the future. And if you don't think people are storing value in real estate, you haven't tried to buy any recently. Fine Art is a small market....so I basically ignore that, but yes it will take from that as well.

                    Regardless, I'm just trying to give you all an idea of where this train is going. Feel free to hope on....or watch it pass you by.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by NapoleanDynamite View Post

                      Cord...you have been one of the biggest skeptics since I started this in 5/2020. Hearing that "you are on the BTC train" is actually kind of funny to me. Below is an exchange we had from one year ago in this thread. Your response is in bold. My statement is above it. So far we have had a correction of 50% (I said 10, 20 or 60) and I stated BTC would be in the 6 figure range in 1-5 years. We aren't there yet, but we are well on the way. One year ago the BTC price was 15K.

                      realize you all think I just pull these numbers out of a hat....but I assure you there is a lot of research/time that goes in to them. There is very good reason to believe that BTC will first take a huge chunk of the 12Trillion dollar gold market (it already has). Next up is the bond market. That is somewhere between a 200 and 400 Trillion dollar market. It is currently taking a small amount and will take a huge chunk of that market. The real estate market is still debated because it is so far out. But these things are very likely to occur. We can check in with you again in a year or two to see if your opinion has changed again. Mine hasn't changed much in the past 1-2 years.
                      I still stand by those statements. There is a price for nearly everything that would concern me about that something being a bubble. Being on the "BTC train" means I've got a small percentage of my portfolio dedicated to it and I don't think it'll go to $0 in the near future. That doesn't mean I think it'll go to $1M, be the end all for everything, have a Twitter profile picture with laser beam eyes, and hashtag #bitcoinfixes this everywhere I go.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Panscan View Post

                        This is tremendous hopium. I don’t understand how Btc is going to capture any of the real estate market. Houses being priced in btc doesn’t mean any of the market is captured.

                        I have no idea on the bonds thing either.

                        fine art is basically laundering and anyone that was going to launder via Bitcoin is probably already doing so and will have a harder time in the future as it gets under increasing scrutiny
                        I'm not really sure what you mean by this. I have a feeling that again, you're someone that hasn't really done much research on bitcoin but loves to crap on it

                        First of all, Bitcoin is one of the most traceable assets in the world. let's say someone installed an ransomware program on your computer and demanded 1BTC as payment in order to unlock your files. You could send them that BTC. Do you think this becomes untraceable? In reality, you can trace that BTC from its inception, see which address mined it, who they sold it to, who that person then sold it to themselves and so on. You can see which address you sent it to and then to which address it was sent to afterwards. And it's not just fancy analytic firms that can do this. Anyone can do this. You can do this right now. A 10 yo can do this. It's literally out there for anyone to see. It's called a public ledger for a reason. Laundering money using bitcoin is pretty dumb because converting fiat to BTC and BTC back to fiat requires you going through a centralized exchange which uses KYC (know your customer) so your identity gets revealed at that stage. It's very hard to hide your identity simply using the bitcoin network. Now if you said that people launder money using XMR or Zcash I would give you some credit but you didn't which makes me think that again, you didn't do any research, have no understanding of the network other than some elemental knowledge that CNBC spews out on a daily basis.

                        If you meant people are using mixers, that's so 2017, not many people have the balls to run a mixer these days

                        If you meant that people are using NFTs to launder money, sure, but last I checked there's no NFTs on the Bitcoin network, no ability for smart contracts (yet, taproot incoming). So not sure how people are buying NFTs on the bitcoin network. Again, you have very little knowledge about bitcoin or crypto in general and instead of educating yourself on the topic you decide to just spew random garbage that holds no weight

                        Originally posted by Panscan View Post
                        will have a harder time in the future as it gets under increasing scrutiny
                        I actually think it's going to get easier to launder money using Bitcoin in the future. Right now there's only certain things you can buy using Bitcoin, most situation require you to convert to fiat which will require you going through a centralized exchange, revealing your identity. However, as BTC becomes legal tender in more countries, you will be able to use that BTC directly without converting which keeps your identity hidden.

                        I have a feeling most people that are against crypto on this forum have very little understanding of crypto in general. Them commenting here is equivalent to a neurologist going to an orthopod convention and telling a room full of orthopods that they're doing their knee replacements incorrectly. Educate yourself, read a book, read an article, listen to a podcast, try to truly understand what bitcoin is and what crypto as a whole is and then come back and we can have an educated discussion. I have a feeling that once you read a little more about it, you'll change your tune

                        May I suggest starting here? https://learn.saylor.org/course/PRDV151
                        Last edited by nycEMMD; 11-09-2021, 06:05 AM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by nycEMMD View Post
                          First of all, Bitcoin is one of the most traceable assets in the world. let's say someone installed an ransomware program on your computer and demanded 1BTC as payment in order to unlock your files. You could send them that BTC. Do you think this becomes untraceable? In reality, you can trace that BTC from its inception, see which address mined it, who they sold it to, who that person then sold it to themselves and so on. You can see which address you sent it to and then to which address it was sent to afterwards. And it's not just fancy analytic firms that can do this. Anyone can do this. You can do this right now. A 10 yo can do this. It's literally out there for anyone to see. It's called a public ledger for a reason. Laundering money using bitcoin is pretty dumb because converting fiat to BTC and BTC back to fiat requires you going through a centralized exchange which uses KYC (know your customer) so your identity gets revealed at that stage. It's very hard to hide your identity simply using the bitcoin network. Now if you said that people launder money using XMR or Zcash I would give you some credit but you didn't which makes me think that again, you didn't do any research, have no understanding of the network other than some elemental knowledge that CNBC spews out on a daily basis
                          You can see the accounts that have been interacting but you can't see who the people are unless they've purposefully made that information public. Unless I've completely missed a large piece of the puzzle.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                            You can see the accounts that have been interacting but you can't see who the people are unless they've purposefully made that information public. Unless I've completely missed a large piece of the puzzle.
                            Like I said, at some point you have to convert back to fiat or you used fiat to fund an wallet that interacted with one of your addresses. That's the point of identification. Centralized exchanges use KYC so you can trace the interactions of the different wallets back to a centralized exchange where everyone's identity is known

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by nycEMMD View Post

                              Like I said, at some point you have to convert back to fiat or you used fiat to fund an wallet that interacted with one of your addresses. That's the point of identification. Centralized exchanges use KYC so you can trace the interactions of the different wallets back to a centralized exchange where everyone's identity is known
                              You don't ever have to convert back to fiat if you don't want to and not everyone's identity is known. If that were the case then any ransom attempt would easily be solved.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                                You don't ever have to convert back to fiat if you don't want to and not everyone's identity is known. If that were the case then any ransom attempt would easily be solved.
                                Sure thing, but you also can't use your bitcoin to buy a wide range of things just yet so kind of defeats the purpose of getting that money.

                                The reason most ransomware attacks aren't solved is because hackers launder their money through privacy coins like XMR which makes the funds untraceable. You can then interract with your centralized exchange without any issue. Example: get your ransomware in btc (or whatever crypto) > swap to XMR > then swap back into btc (or whatever crypto) using multiple receiving addresses > deposit that BTC into an exchange and convert to fiat > enjoy your scam money

                                Look up the Colonial pipeline hack and see why the feds were able to recoup some of the BTC (spoiler alert, some of the bad actors didn't convert into XMR)

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