Bitcoin is still early

[Lordosis]

I had/have the same feeling as you. Two things are swayed me.

1) A friend commenting that cryptocurrencies (specifically BTC and ETH) are either the future and going to to increase in value massively, or they're going to zero.

Win big or nothing? Sounds like gambling to me.

Putting in a small amount would only hurt a small amount. Except what about when it goes up do you rebalance out? What about if it goes down do you rebalance in? If it drops 50% again would you rebalance in? I know I wouldn't So I am not going to mess around.

on the other hand if VTSAX dropped 50% I would through everything I had at it. It would still be scary as heck but I think I have the fortitude to hold that though think and thin. I know I would not be able to do that with Bitcoin.

[jacoavlu]

Win big or nothing? Sounds like gambling to me.

Putting in a small amount would only hurt a small amount. Except what about when it goes up do you rebalance out? What about if it goes down do you rebalance in? If it drops 50% again would you rebalance in? I know I wouldn't So I am not going to mess around.

on the other hand if VTSAX dropped 50% I would through everything I had at it. It would still be scary as heck but I think I have the fortitude to hold that though think and thin. I know I would not be able to do that with Bitcoin.

if you dca buy and hold you don't worry about any of that

[SpacemanSpiff12]

Win big or nothing? Sounds like gambling to me.

Putting in a small amount would only hurt a small amount. Except what about when it goes up do you rebalance out? What about if it goes down do you rebalance in? If it drops 50% again would you rebalance in? I know I wouldn't So I am not going to mess around.

on the other hand if VTSAX dropped 50% I would through everything I had at it. It would still be scary as heck but I think I have the fortitude to hold that though think and thin. I know I would not be able to do that with Bitcoin.

I hear you - I've had the same thoughts.

I'd probably take the path jacoavlu mentioned. Max out all tax protected accounts first. Then contribute a set percentage of new dollars each month, say 5%. Hold long-term. Don't rebalance into it or out of it - just take 5-10% of the money I would have put into VTI/VXUS in a taxable account each month and put it into BTC/ETH instead.

Which brings up another question... what's the end point? I suppose, continue to hold until it becomes worthless or worth so much that selling would have a significant effect on my financial plan?

[Lordosis]

Which brings up another question... what's the end point? I suppose, continue to hold until it becomes worthless or worth so much that selling would have a significant effect on my financial plan?

Another great question I do not know the answer to...

[jacoavlu]

Another great question I do not know the answer to...

plenty of time to figure that out

[jacoavlu]

I hear you - I've had the same thoughts.

I'd probably take the path jacoavlu mentioned. Max out all tax protected accounts first. Then contribute a set percentage of new dollars each month, say 5%. Hold long-term. Don't rebalance into it or out of it - just take 5-10% of the money I would have put into VTI/VXUS in a taxable account each month and put it into BTC/ETH instead.

Which brings up another question... what's the end point? I suppose, continue to hold until it becomes worthless or worth so much that selling would have a significant effect on my financial plan?

before you put any money in I would recommend you do a deep dive and understand whatever you are buying.

[SpacemanSpiff12]

before you put any money in I would recommend you do a deep dive and understand whatever you are buying.

It has been difficult to find measured, sober-minded educational content. If you have any recommendations, I'm all ears. Even if I don't invest, it's interesting to learn about.

But I swear, a lot of the time I'm referred to resources it's either a gushing "white paper" describing why BTC is definitely going to hit $1MM in a couple years, or a YouTube video from a teenager named BitcoinBoi97.

[jacoavlu]

my recommendation would be to start with "money" - much easier to grasp why bitcoin or something like it could have real value, if you gain some understanding of what money actually is. most of us have never given much thought to the concept.

robert breedlove has some excellent writings around the concept of money

[NapoleanDynamite]

It has been difficult to find measured, sober-minded educational content. If you have any recommendations, I'm all ears. Even if I don't invest, it's interesting to learn about.

But I swear, a lot of the time I'm referred to resources it's either a gushing "white paper" describing why BTC is definitely going to hit $1MM in a couple years, or a YouTube video from a teenager named BitcoinBoi97.

Spaceman,

I encourage you to continue your learning. It is clear from your posts (and I'm not trying to say this in a negative way) that you do not have much knowledge about Bitcoin. I would strongly recommend reading The Bullish Case for Bitcoin by Vijay Boyapati. It is a great start, and easy read, and addresses many topics. Then if you get further into it, there are some other great books like The Bitcoin Standard, Layered Money, and The Price of Tomorrow that I would STRONGLY recommend reading. There are also some great podcasts that I listen to on a daily basis. Peter McCormack, Preston Pysh, Guy Swann amongst others all have great content. That being said this will take many hours of study, but it is well worth it IMO.

When I started investing in Bitcoin (yes BTC only), I made the decision to allocate 7.5% of my retirement portfolio to Bitcoin. After that initial allocation, I have continued to buy at 20% of my monthly investment savings. Bitcoin now represents approx. 50% of my retirement portfolio. Many would consider this wildly risky. Because of the education I have obtained, I do not. If I felt the market, real estate, or another asset could provide a short or long term better return then I would likely re-allocate some of my Bitcoin. I don't believe this will happen in the short term. This opinion may change in the next 1-4 months.

Over the past 2 years I have recommended friends DCA into their position when they ask me. However, at this stage in the possible Bitcoin cycle (if one is a believer in this theory), then it is very likely that the Bitcoin price will jump significantly over the next 120 days. So, to any friends currently starting their investment, I am recommending that they dump a lump sum in and then start DCA-ing. Of course if they know they will sell in the case of a 50-80% drop in price, then they are probably just better off DCA-ing in to their position.

That being said, I wouldn't wait 3-4 months to start doing that. I believe in the past 18 months, this is the first time I have stated this. So take it for what it is worth. I could be wrong. But I think you will be kicking yourself if you wait 3-4 months prior to starting your investment into Bitcoin.

Also, I have been very up front about Bitcoin only. I do think ETH and other Alts will continue to do very well for some time. But in a high net worth investment portfolio, I don't believe they have much of a position in your retirement account. If you want to play around with gambling in the casino, then go right ahead. You will probably do well. But I hold none.

Hope that helps.

[Zaphod]

Unless you have huge realized gains it wont be a problem. I am just going to do x in, x out....I think. Robinhood keeps asking for my tax status which I refuse to do.

Idk what about nfts and such, how do you even? Lets see up x% in sol, but xyz sol nft ded. What a mess.

Havent been airdropped myself, but disaster puts it lightly aside from free money if you can get it.

[xraygoggles]

I hear you - I've had the same thoughts.

I'd probably take the path jacoavlu mentioned. Max out all tax protected accounts first. Then contribute a set percentage of new dollars each month, say 5%. Hold long-term. Don't rebalance into it or out of it - just take 5-10% of the money I would have put into VTI/VXUS in a taxable account each month and put it into BTC/ETH instead.

Which brings up another question... what's the end point? I suppose, continue to hold until it becomes worthless or worth so much that selling would have a significant effect on my financial plan?

DCA monthly is the way to go. Outside of BTC and ETH, I wouldn't really DCA any other altcoins: either speculate on those if you want, or forget about them altogether.

[jacoavlu]

DCA monthly is the way to go. Outside of BTC and ETH, I wouldn't really DCA any other altcoins: either speculate on those if you want, or forget about them altogether.

it is as easy and as cheap (in fees) to DCA daily or weekly as it is monthly. bc of the volatility I recommend more frequent DCA

[xraygoggles]

it is as easy and as cheap (in fees) to DCA daily or weekly as it is monthly. bc of the volatility I recommend more frequent DCA

Interesting... is there any data which shows weekly DCA has been better than monthly historically?

[NapoleanDynamite]

Interesting... is there any data which shows weekly DCA has been better than monthly historically?

Yes. I don't have it handy but there is a nice chart that has been made of daily vs weekly vs monthly DCA into BTC.

Here is one article that discusses:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/...ofit-dca-price

And here is a DCA tool to play with:

https://dcabtc.com/

I DCA weekly because I don't want the daily bank transactions and mess of buys for tax purposes.

[jacoavlu]

Interesting... is there any data which shows weekly DCA has been better than monthly historically?

i won't claim it's "better" - but it stands to reason more frequent DCA smooths things out