Bitcoin is still early

[CordMcNally]

This is why I just buy and hold.

[jacoavlu]

This is why I just buy and hold.

did you tax loss harvest

[CordMcNally]

did you tax loss harvest

No. I figure taxes associated with crypto are going to be incredibly scrutinized for the foreseeable future and I honestly didn’t want the headache.

[jacoavlu]

No. I figure taxes associated with crypto are going to be incredibly scrutinized for the foreseeable future and I honestly didn’t want the headache.

IRS guidance exists and i feel pretty confident following the existing guidance when it comes to bitcoin

”crypto” yeah take care. many if not all are just unregulated securities at the present moment

[G]

This is going to be nearly impossible for me. I get random crap deposited all the time that is essentially worthless. As someone who participates in the NFT world, it is going to be a complete and total mess. From a book-keeping aspect alone this is going to be so complex and I'm really not looking forward to it.

Still waiting for guest post(s)!

[jacoavlu]

anyone want an example of my point re “what if the next great coin comes along and replaces bitcoin”

check out the hyped “worldcoin” announced this week

announced by @sama on twitter he has a short username and a checkmark he must be a good guy

oh it’s going to be fairly distributed to everyone. not like bitcoin. just prove youre a unique human with a retina scan by our weird orb thing and we will give you your fair share of coins free (see our signup link where you can be an orb operator and earn referral coins)

if it gets enough wide adoption then value will increase and it will be great for the world!

(fine print 10% of coins are reserved for the creative team and 10% for the various silicon valley investors)

[jacoavlu]

see: https://twitter.com/sama/status/1451...029427208?s=21

[jacoavlu]

probably nothing

[CordMcNally]

probably nothing

I'm sure they'll allow for unrealized losses, as well.

[jacoavlu]

I'm sure they'll allow for unrealized losses, as well.

that’s not income silly

[SpacemanSpiff12]

This has been an interesting discussion to follow. I've generally been dismissive of BTC and cryptocurrencies. However, over the last couple months I've found myself intrigued, increasingly convinced of the potential of BTC and ETH, and considering a small allocation - I wonder if others feel the same way?

Partly this is due to my current financial situation. After residency I prioritized saving a down payment for our house, paying off our student loans, and getting rid of all non-mortgage debt. Now that those boxes have been checked, we'll have extra cash flow each month which I had been planning to allocate to VTI/VXUS in a taxable account.

However, in a group chat with college friends I've found that some of my smartest and savviest friends are extremely knowledgeable about, and invest in, cryptocurrencies. Institutional money is starting to join in. I've read papers and listened to podcasts by serious academics who believe in its future. I'm becoming convinced. I'm also young, we have a >30% savings rate, I could lose a 5-10% investment allocation without significantly affecting our overall goals... it seems like a reasonable time to take a chance on something that's high-risk, high-reward.

But I also worry that the very fact that I'm considering a small allocation to BTC/ETH means we're nearing the peak of the hype cycle. What better indicator is there than the fact that a typically skeptical and conservative doctor is ready to jump in?

:

[Lordosis]

This has been an interesting discussion to follow. I've generally been dismissive of BTC and cryptocurrencies. However, over the last couple months I've found myself intrigued, increasingly convinced of the potential of BTC and ETH, and considering a small allocation - I wonder if others feel the same way?

Partly this is due to my current financial situation. After residency I prioritized saving a down payment for our house, paying off our student loans, and getting rid of all non-mortgage debt. Now that those boxes have been checked, we'll have extra cash flow each month which I had been planning to allocate to VTI/VXUS in a taxable account.

However, in a group chat with college friends I've found that some of my smartest and savviest friends are extremely knowledgeable about, and invest in, cryptocurrencies. Institutional money is starting to join in. I've read papers and listened to podcasts by serious academics who believe in its future. I'm becoming convinced. I'm also young, we have a >30% savings rate, I could lose a 5-10% investment allocation without significantly affecting our overall goals... it seems like a reasonable time to take a chance on something that's high-risk, high-reward.

But I also worry that the very fact that I'm considering a small allocation to BTC/ETH means we're nearing the peak of the hype cycle. What better indicator is there than the fact that a typically skeptical and conservative doctor is ready to jump in?

:

I guess it all depends on if this is really a new paradigm or if a lot of people just think it is.

I sure as heck do not know. So I will stay away.

[jacoavlu]

This has been an interesting discussion to follow. I've generally been dismissive of BTC and cryptocurrencies. However, over the last couple months I've found myself intrigued, ... in a group chat with college friends I've found that some of my smartest and savviest friends are extremely knowledgeable about, and invest in, cryptocurrencies.

it doesn't take a lot of smarts or savviness to be a good long term investor, it doesn't take reading charts or having ability to predict future.


"institutional money is starting to join in" - people like to say this and it's true to some degree but requires a little more exploration

there is some "institutional" money coming to bitcoin as a store of value / long term investment alternative to traditional investments. some public companies, hedge funds and pensions, insurance companies etc buying bitcoin directly. Plus there are mining companies going public which brings some "institutional" money and allows some bitcoin-adjacent investment, without directly holding btc. All of this also begins to build a bit of a "regulatory moat" around bitcoin which makes it much more difficult for the gov to aggressively attack it

the "institutional" money coming into other crypto is largely silicon valley / VC money much more analogous to tech startups. I'm not aware of institutions as above buying and holding these other crypto tokens with a goal of long term investment. the VCs that get in on these tokens are in early with premine coins that they get at a steep discount compared to what the coins then get sold to retail

those are two very different things to me

[SpacemanSpiff12]

I guess it all depends on if this is really a new paradigm or if a lot of people just think it is.

I sure as heck do not know. So I will stay away.

I had/have the same feeling as you. Two things are swayed me.

1) A friend commenting that cryptocurrencies (specifically BTC and ETH) are either the future and going to to increase in value massively, or they're going to zero. If the former, then having a small stake would be hugely beneficial. If the latter... well, that's why you make sure it's a small position that you can afford to lose. (I have another friend who put the proceeds of his primary home sale - a 7 figure amount - into crypto, which seems insane to me.)

2) Campbell Harvey was recently a guest on the Rational Reminder podcast. Great episode. He made the point that even if you're not personally investing in crypto, you're still exposed to it. Financials comprise 12% of the stock market and they stand to be hugely disrupted if the potential of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology is realized. That's why institutions are starting to join in - to hedge their position - and it was pretty compelling.

Anyway, I haven't pulled the trigger yet - my IPS mandates a lengthy wait period before any changes, and if this stuff really is the future then waiting 30 or 90 days won't make a big difference in the long run - but I'm inching in that direction.

[SpacemanSpiff12]

it doesn't take a lot of smarts or savviness to be a good long term investor, it doesn't take reading charts or having ability to predict future.


"institutional money is starting to join in" - people like to say this and it's true to some degree but requires a little more exploration

there is some "institutional" money coming to bitcoin as a store of value / long term investment alternative to traditional investments. some public companies, hedge funds and pensions, insurance companies etc buying bitcoin directly. Plus there are mining companies going public which brings some "institutional" money and allows some bitcoin-adjacent investment, without directly holding btc. All of this also begins to build a bit of a "regulatory moat" around bitcoin which makes it much more difficult for the gov to aggressively attack it

the "institutional" money coming into other crypto is largely silicon valley / VC money much more analogous to tech startups. I'm not aware of institutions as above buying and holding these other crypto tokens with a goal of long term investment. the VCs that get in on these tokens are in early with premine coins that they get at a steep discount compared to what the coins then get sold to retail

those are two very different things to me

Yeah I hear you - I don't really have an interest in trying to pick out the next big token that's going to take off like Dogecoin. I'm more swayed by your first category of institutional investors and the fact that insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, companies etc. are putting in their money. It seems to further legitimize the concept.